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The demise of the OEMs

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#182
Buckminster said:
So tricky for Ford. Everyone thinks this is good news for Ford. As a super bull, all I think about is why anyone would buy a Ford after rubbing shoulders with FSD users.
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Because most people don't think FSD is $13k better than BlueCruise.

Tesla doesn't offer sunshades under Pano roofs or solid roofs.

Tesla doesn't offer grab handles. People with mobility issues matter.

Tesla only offers 5 colors.

We shall see what Cybertruck offers but as of now Tesla doesn't offer a car with comfortable suspension or spare tire.

Elon has backed down before. At first no center consoles. No door storage bins. No all wheel drive(electric rear wheel drive is good enough in snow/rain) and most recently Yokes. Yoke will be on Model S/X with no option for normal steering wheel.

Elon has been predicting robotaxi/ real actual full self driving is 6 months from now for 6 years.
 
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#185
#186
Papafox said:
Another catalyst for TSLA this week, if analysts and portfolio managers are paying the same level of attention as informed retail investors (unlikely), is that news keeps supporting the contention that Tesla continues to run away from the competition. Two excellent video podcasts illustrate that point Monday and Saturday. Farzad Mesbahi disected the recent interview of Ford's CEO Jim Farley and pointed out how Farley basically said that Ford will concentrate on niche products going forward. Mesbahi suggests this means that Ford will not challenge Tesla for the more mainstream products such as the upcoming Gen 3 $25K vehicle. Farley acknowledges that Ford has much catching up to do with software, since individual vendors handle software for the various components in a Ford and there's no way to integrate all of this proprietary software. Add Mary Bara's comments that GM will not see profits on $30K-$40K EVs until late in the decade, if at all, and you have confirmation of massive Tesla dominance going forward. In many ways, Monday was the day that both Ford and GM ceded the mainstream auto business to Tesla while they concentrate on their niche products.
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I told them to do this (find a niche or two) 4.5 years ago. How long will it take the others...?
Buckminster said:
I think non Tesla cars will do quite well if:
1) They have a niche (little or no competition in the class) plus being first to market within that niche/class
2) They are similar to an iconic car and made by the original manufacturer - fashionable
3) A design that does not sell because of it's previous ICE characteristics - sound / power (like Ferrari, Mustang or even BMW/Audi)
4) Second/third cars where AP is not required

Porsche Taycan is in a niche not yet covered by Tesla and is similar to the iconic 911 so it will do well. A Porsche SUV would struggle more.

Others that could do well:
1) VW ID - similar to iconic Golf
2) VW Beetle
3) VW camper
4) Rolls, Bentley, Jag, S500, Maybach, Cadillac
5) Mini, Fiat 500
6) Jeep

I feel that their best bet is somehow to convert these niches into serious production quantities. Increasingly, everything that a millennial does or buys needs to be Instagram extraordinary. Sensible/best in class is no longer good enough.
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PS. Neroden was one of the few to like my post. He is still my number two favourite TMCer after Factchecking. Both went off the rails...
 
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#188
Buckminster said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1666183547982426120
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Alex also said in 2021 he had a source within Porsche that said “Six out of ten Porsche Taycan ever delivered have a problem with battery management that affects and damages battery cells, requires replacement of cells and batteries, and is causing vehicle fires."

Turned out to be a nothing burger. No government agency issued recall. I don't see customers complaining en mass etc.
 
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#189
RobStark said:
Alex also said in 2021 he had a source within Porsche that said “Six out of ten Porsche Taycan ever delivered have a problem with battery management that affects and damages battery cells, requires replacement of cells and batteries, and is causing vehicle fires."

Turned out to be a nothing burger. No government agency issued recall. I don't see customers complaining en mass etc.
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You don't think VW have been hit by the M3 dropping to <$20k?
 
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#190
Buckminster said:
You don't think VW have been hit by the M3 dropping to <$20k?
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I don't think Alex knows anything beyond what everybody knows. Based on past performance.

I don't think VW demand has dropped by half or more and needs to start laying off everybody.

Tesla sold 1.3M cars last and will sell ~1.9M cars this year. Based on constant price adjustments I don't think Tesla orders are vastly outstripping production. Tesla is likely taking a little market share from everybody. Not just VW.

And I think ID.Buzz will be sold out for years.
 
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#191
Also there's about 3 people on earth for whom the Model 3 is under 20k.... You have to have enough income for at least 7500 in federal tax liability AND make so little you get the low-income California rebate (which is already impossible if you don't have kids and a super narrow income band if you don't have multiple kids), and then ALSO live in one specific part of California. Without all 3 it's nowhere near under 20k.
 
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#195
Buckminster said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1668183028839874562
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I figure this is what the Demise of the OEMs looks like in practice. We've had this sort of thing going on elsewhere (Ford, GM come to mind). It's not the end. There will be another round of cost optimization, and organizational right sizing (I'm starting to forget my layoff buzzword bingo) to come as well. Might be annual, might be every other year.

And it'll keep going at every company until their EV lineups are net positive cash generators.
 
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#196
As the demise accelerates, partnerships with "Emperor's New Clothes" ventures start to emerge.
  • Hydrogen is the big one, in a dual ironic sense of the word since even the Japanese government is involved. Anyone inside Toyota who studied even a little bit of math or physics probably knows that it is a dead end, but nobody dares yell "Emperor's New Clothes".
  • GM partnered with Lordstown and Nikola, two companies that screamed fraud from a mile away well before the partnerships.
  • Now this: Stellantis and Archer Host European Debut of Midnight eVTOL Aircraft at 2023 Paris Air Show . Archer is designing and developing electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for use in urban air mobility networks. We have urban air transport in terms of helicopters, it remains a niche market due to noise and safety, with a very small profit pool, no matter if kerosene or battery propulsion. Adding the label 'urban air mobility' won't change that.
The pattern here is; once a company has lost its ability to keep up with disruption, it tries to leapfrog it by wildly throwing darts at hopeless targets, just to feel that it's doing something.
 
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