Anxiety - I have a 2015 70D, AP1. My horrible resale is not bad at all. I personally don't think quarterly changes hurt medium term resale at all. AP2 hurt my resale. 60D hurt it also. But if I where to sell my 2 year old car, the sum of quarterly changes would hurt it.
I am not really in agreement with the fast changes increasing depreciation (haven't really thought it through either), I just wanted it presented accurately in the debate... Mine is more of a concern that constant changes actually cause a perpetual Osborne effect and/or constant customer dissatisfaction that could be avoided by a little more pacing.
Now maturity - 5 seat Model X and countergate - are really a different argument. The buzz created by fast changes probably wins out over maturity issues.
I agree Tesla does the fast changes for the buzz. For the demand lever. But there are downsides. Maturity is one. The psychology of a potential perpetual Osborne effect and buyer's remorse is another. When do you buy when every quarter, sometimes twice a quarter, something new is coming along... yet the delivery of the car takes several months... The psychology can be problematic.
Comparable cars in the next 1-1.5 years? You have been believing the other OEMs (mostly German) who are trying to calm Tesla demand by claiming to be right around the corner with good competition. Good luck with all that - although they may show up in Europe first so we will have different realities. Every EV is delayed. Every EV shows up somewhere first and then nearly a year to make it everywhere. I can't buy a Bolt - can you? We have known the exact details of that car for a year. Let alone the sketchy details about other cars.
In my market, I suspect I am 3 years from a decent large battery luxury competitor. If you discount the Bolt because it is too skinny and tall, not very pretty or just Chevy in general, I have zero options in the next 24 months. And who is to say after 24 months, there won't be a huge problem with that Audi EV (you do realize that VW has been 1.5 years away from a large battery EV for several years now) .
Nah, I haven't been believing anyone blindly, it is my prediction and analysis. I think it is extremely likely two or three large-battery EVs will be available in 1-1.5 years. Those include the Bolt, of course, in its European guise for me (Open Ampera-E - not available yet) and I expect one or two from the Anglo-German segment to stick to their deadlines, maybe more. Bolt/Ampera-E is not available yet, but in 1-1.5 years I expect it will be. Then there are of course the likes of Renault...
Anyway, I very readily concede a large-battery EV has been Tesla only until 2016. It will mostly be Tesla only in 2017. But in 2018 I sincerely believe that is changing and actual purchaseable large-battery cars from other manufacturers will be available. It will be fairly easy to see if I was right or wrong then - so we shall see.
Look - I get mad at Tesla all the time. But innovation in a somewhat erratic schedule is not their issue.
I have not gotten mad at Tesla ever, that I recall. Countergate came pretty close. I am here to discuss Tesla, including how their actions are perceived by myself and how I see others perceiving them. There are many issues to discuss, some bigger, some smaller. I think this one could use a wiser approach. You disagree and that's perfectly OK of course, we agree to disagree I'm sure.