Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ellec]

IMHO there is a big difference between FSD and bot: FSD is designed to be used on public roads and has to deal with lots and lots of crazy edge cases that come along once in 10 years or so. To make it safe for those, the training requires tons of driving data because such cases have to be included.

For the bots, on the other hand, the most likely (and still possibly very profitable) use case is working in a well defined factory environment, where they are only trained to do one job as seen in the video. That requires massively less training data. Also, as you said such jobs usually don´t put anyones life at threat when things go wrong, so you can do much more trial and error which reduces the time to get the bots to work even more. You don´t need one bot that can work on lots of different jobs without new training, while FSD has to do traffic circles, unprotected lefts, blinking red lights, emergency vehicles, construction areas, rain, snow... you get the idea - in one single piece of software.

Regulatory problems should be much easier to as the bots will likely not be working im public places accessible to anyone (at least in the beginning).

I agree that's one (and probably initial use case of the bot), however if they become consumer products they will have to navigate the real world, peoples houses, outside world etc. However I think that is years away so they have plenty time to train the bot for that.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla's Tom Zhu Promises Giga Mexico Will Be Up and Running in Less Than 9 Months

Tom Zhu, who oversees Tesla factories and sales operations in North America and Europe, promised that Giga Mexico would be up and running in less than 9 months

www.autoevolution.com

Maybe this is why Zhu resigned.

Hadn´t heard of him resigning so I googled. All I found to support it is this tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787269734523891963

So if true (I would still call it a rumour if only confirmed by one twitter source, even if well known) he did not leave Tesla but did switch positions. He still has the Tesla T in his X account and on Tesla´s web page he is still listed as "Senior Vice Presiden, Automotive":

Tesla Investor Relations

Tom has served as our Senior Vice President, Automotive since April 2023. Mr. Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014, and served in various operational roles before being appointed as Vice President, Greater China, where he led the construction and operations of Gigafactory Shanghai. Mr. Zhu holds a...

ir.tesla.com

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Seba posted an article on the disruption of labour by humanoid robots:

This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots

Discover how new clean technology can solve environmental problems through accelerated development, adoption, and restoration. Learn how to embrace disruption for a brighter future.

www.rethinkx.com

 

[Cult Member]

Stillstand in Germanys BEV market. The April dip for all new cars wasn't as deep as the years bevor, but BEV won nothing and Tesla lost -32% against April'23. Gas, Diesel and all form of Hybrids are the winners. What a sad result.
That's the market in total:

 

[UkNorthampton]

Seba posted an article on the disruption of labour by humanoid robots:

This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots

Discover how new clean technology can solve environmental problems through accelerated development, adoption, and restoration. Learn how to embrace disruption for a brighter future.

www.rethinkx.com

Good stuff.

Part of the reason for owning TSLA is that Tesla is likely to be a leader in many of the disruptive technologies and owning capital in winning companies when jobs (income) are rapidly evolving is a safety measure.

A couple of observations on the article - robots will be used initially as replacements for tasks, not jobs

There will be a need to protect people rather than old industry vested interests

Above all: protect people, not jobs, firms, or industries

In other disruptions throughout history, we have seen incumbent interests turn to their governments for protection against the new technologies. These protections can take the form of subsidies and handouts to the old industries, regulations and prohibitions that impede new industries built upon the new technologies, and bailouts when the old industry inevitably collapses.

Almost invariably, the benefits of these protections accrue only to the privileged few who own and control the incumbent interests, rather than to the individuals and communities who lose their livelihoods because of the disruption.

To avoid making this same mistake, which could prove catastrophic at the scale of the entire global labor market, we must rethink the relationships between a nation’s population and its economic output, and get ready to transform society itself.

The disruption of labor is inevitable, and together with the disruptions of energy, transportation, and food, it could herald a new age of unprecedented freedom and prosperity. But only if we are willing to experiment, to learn, and to transcend the limits of the past – starting right now.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'd take another slightly different angle on this. Before a humanoid robot, there are two other options for any job:
1. Have a human doing it. Pretty obvious.
2. Have a specialized automation doing it. This is actually what Optimus will be competing with. A good small team from a reputable university would be able to build an automation that does what Optimus is doing there in under a month. And it would be more reliable (much much simpler technologically) and cheaper to operate.

PS: I don't think they have the same neural net being trained to do all tasks. I don't see how that would work. What's your knowledge like in AI? I've taken a couple of courses and building some projects that involve various AI algorithms, but they're mostly hobby at this stage

If option 2 was cheap and appropriate for all circumstances on the Tesla line, Tesla would have fired all their meat bags on the assembly lines already. There's clearly plenty of circumstances where option 2 is not relevant.

And this only relates to the very first step of highly repetitive work on the Tesla line - the prize is a generalised robot that can go out into the world and do the hundreds of millions of ad-hoc more variable jobs we don't want to do. Each neural net updated will add another skill to the fleet of Optimodes.

 

[jschwefel]

Do you feel all this attention on the Cybertruck is from potential EV buyers, or is it just mostly curious people?

It’s definitely a mix of people!

Some are just curious about the truck, and that ranges from “what is it?” and “who makes it?” to “does it rust?” or “can you take it through a car wash?” or “what about battery fires?” Some just stare and don’t know what to say, while others are almost giddy and they walk away saying they’re gonna buy one.

Many ask the more general questions about range, charging and price, which might indicate some level of buying interest . IDK, but at least now when they go to Tesla’s website they’ll see how affordable their cars really are.

One thing for sure is the truck generates conversation about EVs, and people hearing directly from those who drive them is a good thing.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Some more sr. management shuffling... Tom Zhu going back to his role of SVP of China

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787269734523891963

This is pure speculation - I wonder if this could be related to a broader shift in manufacturing to China, leaving Tom to continue to run a large part of Tesla while still being VP of Tesla China.

• Megapactory China is going up - someone needs to oversee this facility and Tom did an amazing job at GigaShanghai
• Tesla has cooled a little on their Mexico and India timing to focus on sweating their existing assets. This may include upgrading GigaShanghai production
• Given most of the existing supercharger team is gone there may be opportunity for Tesla to build out a new supercharger factory even if it is just to supply 3rd party sites and replacements
• It's hard to compete against the structural manufacturing price advantage present in China given their enormous supply chains and competition so it is not the worst idea to continue a significant portion of manufacturing there (even if it comes with additional political risk)
• Possibly part of the deal to get FSD allowed in China would be to commit more of Tesla to China to provide more economic incentive alignment

 

[SO16]

Stillstand in Germanys BEV market. The April dip for all new cars wasn't as deep as the years bevor, but BEV won nothing and Tesla lost -32% against April'23. Gas, Diesel and all form of Hybrids are the winners. What a sad result.
That's the market in total:
View attachment 1044759

Unfortunate indeed.

But the Tesla numbers are skewed a bit due to SIXT it appears.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787446243691503910

 

[aubreymcfato]

Stillstand in Germanys BEV market. The April dip for all new cars wasn't as deep as the years bevor, but BEV won nothing and Tesla lost -32% against April'23. Gas, Diesel and all form of Hybrids are the winners. What a sad result.
That's the market in total:
View attachment 1044759

Sad indeed. Commenters on Twitter say that Germany has no incentives now, and generally bad discourse - culturally, politically - against EVs. Legacy auto lobbies are winning for the time being.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Sad indeed. Commenters on Twitter say that Germany has no incentives now, and generally bad discourse - culturally, politically - against EVs. Legacy auto lobbies are winning for the time being.

/rant
Generally, also, I feel that Tesla is losing a lot of credibility "politically" on the left/environmentalism. Especially in Europe. This is not only by association to Musk political commentary, although that was and still is a major factor.

People see that Tesla new vehicle is the Cybertruck and they don't understand how that can be sustainable. They don't know and don't care about 48v, or steer-by-wire, or no paint... They just see a behemoth that is big and long as a 9-seats van (like the Fiat Ducato) and is built like a tank, with enough steel to build a professional kitchen. "How can it be more ecological than driving a normal gas-powered car?" they ask.
We really don't have pickups here, people are not used to them, and when we see them they are 2-seaters.
Tesla still designs their cars with North America's market and car culture in mind. I mean, it worked so far, there were a lot of good economical reasons, and the Model Y is probably their best accomplishment of "intercultural" car (good for men and women, Americans and Europeans alike).
But a smaller car would do a lot for changing the perception about Tesla cars.
/end of rant

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787295515853427151

Rumors of another round of layoffs.

 

[Max Plaid]

First,

The decision to offer Elon the package in 2018 should be based on company performance. How was it performing at that time? How was it performing at the end of the pay package term?​

​

This is a unique situation where we actually get to apply that elusive 20/20 hindsight. If, when the original vote happened, we could see what the company performance would be like under Elon's command through the end of the period specified for the contract, would any shareholder in their right mind not vote for the package?​

​

This is the extent of which facts should be applied to determine this vote.​

​

All personal bias which might be based on feelings being hurt by social media posts, or someone's personal interpretations of political aspects, are at their root emotional choices. Rather than choices based upon the company performance over this period of time the package applies to.​

Second,

Would anyone think that punishing Elon by taking away his pay for that period is justified in any way if the choice is strictly due to an emotional bias related to things that can never have a direct impact on past company performance? Such a reason for a No vote would be both irrational and illogical.​

Third,

How would voting against the 2018 pay package possibly offer any benefit to Tesla, TSLA, or the stakeholders in a way that could outweigh the risk of losing Elon's future commitment to the undisputed talents that created Tesla to begin with?​

​

If there is no substantial benefit based in company performance to be gained from voting No, that alone should seal the Yes vote.​

​

The term, "Shooting oneself in the foot" comes to mind when considering a No vote. I can think of nothing good for the company and the shareholders that would come from making that choice.

Hope this helps.

I couldn't vote back then, event though I had a decent whack of shares, but I would have voted "yes", and now, if I were able to vote, I would vote the same, despite my misgivings with the way things have gone the last couple of years

I think it would be morally reprehensible to do otherwise, Elon delivered "six impossible things before breakfast" and delivered huge returns, what has come since is not connected

The issue, I think, is that it's not the same set of voters now compared to then, no doubt quite a lot of the current shareholders have their shares below their cost-basis, how will they view it all?

Of course if they've any sense they'd vote "YES", because if Elon were to depart the share price would likely dump hard in the short term, although I do think it would recover and do fine over time

 

[Huskyf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787295515853427151

Rumors of another round of layoffs.

I think it's correct but...it's a part of the 14 000 layoff they can't layoff in one email in one day 14 000 people they make it progressively
Tesla said from the start that layoff 14000 or more and it's 10% ore more in worldwide
But media track every layoff that making confusion that's new it's not new !

 

[GOVA]

How it started: 0%
View attachment 1044676


How’s it going: 10%

https://twitter.com/x/status/1787162403827753329

Brb, I will see if he has deleted this & posted anew with an increased %

That Troy bot has been in the same drawer with Bob Lutz for me. Always.

 

[Ellec]

That Troy bot has been in the same drawer with Bob Lutz for me. Always.

Troy's work has value as a tracking (not predictive) service, but when he starts giving opinions he's straying way out of his lane. It's fine to have opinions of course but I don't value them as it's all speculation, he has no more information than any of us.

 

[philw1776]

I agree that's one (and probably initial use case of the bot), however if they become consumer products they will have to navigate the real world, peoples houses, outside world etc. However I think that is years away so they have plenty time to train the bot for that.

I for one welcome our new robotic overlords.
In my Quisling/Vichy position I offer my home as a trial site for Optimus home robots.

 

[GOVA]

Gasoline has been subsidized heavily forever. It's price did not drastically change for past 15 years due to the subsidies. As long as this is the case, it will be hard to compete especially with the propaganda going on.
Apparently, people in general don't get the meaning of gasoline as double poison really. They just don't care and pay for ICE cars happily while thinking that EVs burn in garages.

If gas was sold w/out subsidies for 25 bucks a gallon things would look different.

Anyway, one dude at party yesterday said he'd finally get MX. Which is another win. Small steps, I guess.

 

[T@oo]

Gasoline has been subsidized heavily forever. It's price did not drastically change for past 15 years due to the subsidies. As long as this is the case, it will be hard to compete especially with the propaganda going on.
Apparently, people in general don't get the meaning of gasoline as double poison really. They just don't care and pay for ICE cars happily while thinking that EVs burn in garages.

If gas was sold w/out subsidies for 25 bucks a gallon things would look different.

Anyway, one dude at party yesterday said he'd finally get MX. Which is another win. Small steps, I guess.

Gas in not subsidized at least in Europe. In fact, it's taxed quite heavily. It's that externalities are not priced in correctly or at all. So it should be much more expensive in reality.

 

[Ellec]

I for one welcome our new robotic overlords.
In my Quisling/Vichy position I offer my home as a trial site for Optimus home robots.

Optimus Prime will be their leader, this might be a bit premature but I offer my allegiance and bow down to his authority.