Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MD70]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785745214256066792

 

[heltok]

Some meta debate about Elon being wrong:

There are many ways to be wrong.

There is being wrong by disagreeing with OP on some philosophical point. Imo that doesn't make Elon wrong, he just has a different view.

Then there is being wrong about facts. Community notes will correct these, this is seldom the case, but it happens.

Then there is making predictions that turns out to be incorrect. Elon likes to play it a lot so he has often been right and often wrong. Here it's easy to have bias, if you like Elon you will remember all the times he was right, if you dislike Elon you will remember all the times he was wrong. Everyone making predictions is wrong about the future sometimes, the only way to not be wrong is to not play the game. But the only way to win this game is to play it. Imo if you are into predictions look into this community and read Superforecasting. Elon often uses predictions as a way to lead the company, often knowing it's likely he will be wrong, willingly being wrong as a tool to make the workers work harder in the desired direction.

Then there is making wrong decisions. With fog of war you have to separate what turned out to be wrong and what was wrong given the amount of information at the time. Like in poker, sometimes you will call with a strong hand but still lose, that doesn't make the call wrong.

Then there is having the wrong implementation. Do the right action, but do it in a wrong way. Bet your strong hand, but your body language has tells and nobody wants to call your bet.

Then there is having the wrong attitude. Doing the right thing, but not convincing the team to play along. Companies are a team effort.

Etc.

TLDR: when you say "Elon is/was wrong", try to refine the statement.

 

[nativewolf]

The problem is that most don't see this as viable and until it's proven that it can be (by people seeing many do this regularly) there won't be a mass shift.

Now I'm not, nor have I ever said this can't/won't be the future, but 10-20 years down the road, maybe.

Mass rideshare has reduced car owner ship in the biggest cities from what people have posted here. People in places like NYC ownership has increased.

Mass rideshare has not impacted car ownership at all according to all published studies. NYC car ownership was always high and has increased.

For people in suburbs with no parking prices and free and readily available parking everywhere the pressure to move to TaaS is just not there. Folks in NYC will use Uber just to not move the car out of the garage.

 

[nativewolf]

Some meta debate about Elon being wrong:

There are many ways to be wrong.

There is being wrong by disagreeing with OP on some philosophical point. Imo that doesn't make Elon wrong, he just has a different view.

Then there is being wrong about facts. Community notes will correct these, this is seldom the case, but it happens.

Then there is making predictions that turns out to be incorrect. Elon likes to play it a lot so he has often been right and often wrong. Here it's easy to have bias, if you like Elon you will remember all the times he was right, if you dislike Elon you will remember all the times he was wrong. Everyone making predictions is wrong about the future sometimes, the only way to not be wrong is to not play the game. But the only way to win this game is to play it. Imo if you are into predictions look into this community and read Superforecasting. Elon often uses predictions as a way to lead the company, often knowing it's likely he will be wrong, willingly being wrong as a tool to make the workers work harder in the desired direction.

Then there is making wrong decisions. With fog of war you have to separate what turned out to be wrong and what was wrong given the amount of information at the time. Like in poker, sometimes you will call with a strong hand but still lose, that doesn't make the call wrong.

Then there is having the wrong implementation. Do the right action, but do it in a wrong way. Bet your strong hand, but your body language has tells and nobody wants to call your bet.

Then there is having the wrong attitude. Doing the right thing, but not convincing the team to play along. Companies are a team effort.

Etc.

TLDR: when you say "Elon is/was wrong", try to refine the statement.

See obviously European. Way too level headed.

 

[Christine69420]

Mass rideshare has not impacted car ownership at all according to all published studies. NYC car ownership was always high and has increased.

For people in suburbs with no parking prices and free and readily available parking everywhere the pressure to move to TaaS is just not there. Folks in NYC will use Uber just to not move the car out of the garage.

But they still use Uber.

 

[Buckminster]

Musk called somebody a violent criminal in public when there was no such evidence. Then he apologized. Then he _repeated_ the insult in public.
Based on logic?
He once tweeted that methane really isn't that bad for the climate.
Based on Science?
Musk got suckered into being part of a group that paid $42B for Twitter.
Based on logic or science?

I don't know how many times he has to act rashly on emotion or make ignorant statements for people to accept that he doesn't run on logic or science.

Regarding methane, cow farts has no impact if the number of cows remain constant. It is an opportunity however.

Not sure that Elon joined a group. He made a group. I am certain X will go down in history for saving free speech etc. $42Bn is nothing compared to the alternative.

 

[GOVA]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785745214256066792

What I find shocking is that Canada had a separate SC Team.
Does every country have their team then?

 

[2daMoon]

Some interesting info here, even if out of context. The timeline in particular.

Tesla retreats from next-generation ‘gigacasting’ manufacturing process

Tesla has backed away from an ambitious plan for innovations in gigacasting, its pioneering manufacturing process, according to two sources familiar with the matter, in another sign that the electric-vehicle maker is retrenching amid falling sales and rising competition. Tesla has been a leader...

www.yahoo.com

So, a pivot toward a vehicle with two castings, offering the flexibility to offer several models with a variety of wheelbases from the same two castings is considered a "retreat" is it?

Whatta bunch of yahoos.

 

[nativewolf]

I agree with what a lot of other people have said:
It helps to hear factual criticism in order to consider that the investing case still remains the same as it was.
But your suggestion above does not help me to take you serious.

Well...don't read into it too much or a lot as you wish. He fired 10% of staff and his ad team. Everyone thought ad team sucked. No biggee. He knows he has SC issues. He takes it to China and lays off after announcing big deal in China. It washed. If he had done that before...could have tanked stock quite a bit.

Good:
EM is finally paying attention to the stock price again. This is actually very good

Questions:
SC team was not adding value?
SC team may not have been working in a manner synergistic with the needs of a TaaS model and/or/not with Semi roll-out?

Bad:
Surprising when market is jittery.

EM is no idiot and when he's focused "war mode" he's at his best. He's just not been focused in years (seems to me). So, my overall take is it's good. Raises questions though. Probably overall a positive because TSLA investors need EM to be very focused. He will need to be at his most adroit to pull off what he seems intent on doing.

 

[nativewolf]

What I find shocking is that Canada had a separate SC Team.
Does every country have their team then?

I would think it a requirement. You have to do paperwork locally, have an understanding of local rules and regs. It's not likely you get that remotely.

 

[2daMoon]

The problem is that most don't see this as viable and until it's proven that it can be (by people seeing many do this regularly) there won't be a mass shift.

Now I'm not, nor have I ever said this can't/won't be the future, but 10-20 years down the road, maybe.

Mass rideshare has reduced car owner ship in the biggest cities from what people have posted here. People in places like NYC ownership has increased.

It will be a lot like how we slogged through those many decades in order to transition to smart phones then?

Once something makes most people's life easier and more enjoyable it is very likely to result in a faster shift than most would have expected. Add in something that makes them safer too and it might amplify this effect.

 

[Christine69420]

I would think it a requirement. You have to do paperwork locally, have an understanding of local rules and regs. It's not likely you get that remotely.

Yep! Lot's of NIMBY's here in Norway and I expect in other countries too. Local rules and regs. And the advantage of speaking the language and knowing the way things are done.

 

[uscbucsfan]

But they still use Uber.

Yes. And RT will be a competitor to that (one that will have to win market share with incredibly low pricing, reliability, and availability), but the idea that people will just stop buying cars or that there will be a shift to more people not buying cars is an extreme LONG term concept.

I do think that's one of the more appropriate topics in a long term investor thread, but it's not something that will move the needle for a long long time.

 

[2daMoon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1785745214256066792

There is nothing quite as inspiring as seeing a post about an adult responding emotionally to an absence of conclusive data.

/s

 

[elasalle]

2-3 yrs back , end of 1st quarter - Tesla laid off sales reps left and right, again due to low EV sales etc. Narrative was similar to what we have today.

This too shall pass ...

 

[nativewolf]

But they still use Uber.

Yes to keep from using parking or when drinking. But trips to countryside, no. Shopping in NJ? No, visiting friends in CT, no, vacation in Maine, no. NYC is a special case. They have always owned cars and used taxis and public transport to move around in the city. That has not changed, taxis become Uber. Pandemic goosed Uber rides business. It also is not used by suburbanites to travel back and forth into NYC. They drive. Uber hasn't really touched commuters, too expensive and they already own vehicles and Uber can only take 1 person in and out of the city in a commuting window. It's why TaaS is not, my prediction, able to impact either car ownership nor city congestion. Possible in some places to make 2 trips but that's not much of an impact.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, a pivot toward a vehicle with two castings, offering the flexibility to offer several models with a variety of wheelbases from the same two castings is considered a "retreat" is it?

Whatta bunch of yahoos.

Rob Maurer skewered Reuters reporting on single piece Giga castings back on Sep 27, 2023:

"Confusing casting report from Reuters China" (1:30 min)

 

[uscbucsfan]

It will be a lot like how we slogged through those many decades in order to transition to smart phones then?

Once something makes most people's life easier and more enjoyable it is very likely to result in a faster shift than most would have expected. Add in something that makes them safer too and it might amplify this effect.

Do you really believe a shift from owning a personal car to just hailing a ride would be comparable to going from a regular cell phone to a smart phone?

I don't believe that to be realistic. There's a long ramp (again 10+ years is probably extremely conservative) to convince people that using a RT would be easier than owning a car. It wouldn't be easier until there's density, everywhere. RT for the foreseeable future will be a Uber/Taxi/Lyft competitor, which isn't a negative. I think a long term goal that a shift of ownership occurs is possible and merits debate, but certainly not imminent.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

FSD has a long way to go to match up how people use cars day to day.

Say you decide to run out to get shopping done. People expect to be driving along and say hey lets grab a drink at Starbucks on way to Costco. Done with Costco, well they didnt have X, lets stop at traditional grocery store on way home. Hey while were out lets grab lunch. Oh need some soil for gardening at Home Depot.

When will Robotaxi service be ready for that. Right now assuming enough cars deployed.

You 1st get a robotaxi to Starbucks. Get out get your drink.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Costco. Get out and shop.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Trader Joes. It comes load up stuff from Costco.
Go to Trader Joes. Unload stuff from Costco. Where do I put it? Shop at Trader Joes.
Call for another robotaxi. Load stuff from Costco and Trader Joes.
Go to lunch joint. What do do with stuff.
Call for another robotaxi to go to Home Deport. What to do with stuff?
Call for another robotaxi to go home after loading all stuff.

This is a pretty typical run weekend errands for lots of people.

How often do you get soil at Home Depot? What's buried in your back yard?
And how come if you're getting a drink at Starbucks, you're suddenly concerned about value seeking on your AV?

You can always rent it for the time needed. Much better than now. No trying to upsell insurance.
The key is in the price. That's why Tesla's cheap-as-possible approach is so important.
It can't just be an expensive vehicle. An expensive AV can be a cheaper taxi, but it can't be a replacement.

I need two hours of weekend rental of an AV for my grocery and lunch run.

The good news is that outside of some special events, peak traffic is weekday rush. Then weekday daytime.

So AVs at weekend should be plentiful and also thus not expensive. After all, if they make weekends expensive, they can't get your weekday custom.
Benefit of AV, if it's going to work big, is being safer, with a lower rate of collision.

So we could get an AV taxi to where we have lunch. Check we can get seated. Dismiss the AV. Closer to the end of the meal call the rental AV for 2 people and groceries.

Or, it's $10 now for grocery delivery, maybe AV can offer cheaper delivery and we skip that rental entirely.

 

[wipster]

And just like that, we were green again.

You know, the more I think about the ROF of the SC staff, although I question how it was done (at least as far as I know), may be part of a planned strategic move by Elon and Tesla. Think about it, they spent the last year convincing all the EV manufacturers in world to use your NACS plugin, which in the short term forces most of not all of the new (and some existing) EV's being produced to use the existing SC network.

But now that means that an ever increasing amount of EV's using SC's will not be manufactured by Tesla. So any additions to the SC network by Tesla (at least in NA) will not be revenue neutral, they now become an expense. By slowing down the build out of fast charging stations by Tesla alone, if the Feds want to accelerate the use of EV's, they will be forced to pay for accelerated build out, plus now that all EV's use NACS, the most efficient and effective way to do it quickly is by building more SC's rather than any competitive solutions. The build out could be performed by Tesla or licensed to others but paid by the Feds.

An alternative would be to make a profit center and charge more for SC use for build out, akin to selling printers but forcing people to buy the ink cartridges from the manufacturer. But that goes against encouraging widespread adoption of EV's if it costs as much or more as gas or diesel.

Honestly, IMO the combination of these two items (NACS adoption, SC slowdown), which I think has been the strategy by Elon and crew all along, may turn out to be one of the more strategic items they've ever done... brilliant!

Time will tell...

Edit add: It's like getting everyone hooked on Heroin when you're the only dealer when you decide to cut back on the amount of H... the users will pay a bunch to get their fixes.