Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[alexxs88]

I'm not "saying" pace of improvement, I'm "seeing" pace of improvement.

It has been getting harder to solve edge cases for years already, yet, the pace of solving edge cases has ramped up thanks to the drastic leap from V11 to V12.

Right now, based on data, the disengagement rate of FSD is approximately two orders of magnitude worse compared to Waymo's. If you have better data, I'm happy to re-consider my position.

Any OEM that doesn't make at least one model capable of being licensed for Tesla FSD will be behind any other OEM who does.

The OEM will get all the profit from the vehicle sale. This should keep the lights on for them.

I don't think that's very likely. Tesla just had to drop the price in half to improve its take rate. So as of today, FSD is barely a factor even for the majority of Tesla buyers. I don't think OEMs are under any time pressure to make a decision today or even over the next couple of years. It might very well be that Waymo manages to reduce the price of their sensor stack and then it makes more sense to license their technology.

This makes the best kind of sense for those OEMs as it won't require them to invest billions trying to reinvent the FSD wheel, yet, allow them to keep selling cars with their marque on them. (along with the "Tesla Inside" sticker, of course)

But, you didn't actually answer the question regarding what timeline is your thesis based upon?

Again, if I were an OEM, I'd hedge my bets and not commit to a solution before autonomy chooses its winner. There's no point in rushing. European manufacturers have plenty of regulating power in Europe so they'll be able to delay it long enough to get a license to put it on their cars once it happens.

Regarding the timeline. I think Waymo is better positioned right now to produce commercial autonomous taxis at scale. But no matter the winner, I don't think autonomy will produce serious profits sooner than 7-10 years.

 

[Musskiah]

I wonder if cancelling the trip to India (reason: "Too much to do for Tesla at home" IIRC) in reality had more to do with China...

My guesses:
- Either FSD in China seemed like a higher priority to Elon
- or as China likely wouldn´t like Tesla setting up production in India, they used that as a negotiating tactic?

I agree Tesla is playing India against China

 

[unk45]

I'd agree with you there since I assume if it's on unsupervised FSD mode and someone is in the back seat, the current insurer (if not Tesla) will assume liability at that point since the owner is not even driving.

That is not the way it works. When such low frequency accidents happen the loss severity rises and everyone involved, however peripherally is likely to be drawn into the claims process.

 

[elasalle]

I agree Tesla is playing India against China

India has elections and maybe Tesla wants to see who wins Elections 1st.
Modi likely was trying to use Elon/Tesla to score some points

 

[SOULPEDL]

Actually that is quite high to me, as Erie insurance for my Model 3 is $53/month.

Erie Ins… as in Lake Erie? That’s pretty cheap! I’m in Az.

Based on this usage.
Super Majority was on FSD. Some v11 in my data set still, so hoping for better.

 

[2daMoon]

I love the smell of FOMO in the morning!

It smells like... VICTORY!​

Shout out to @Big Time to keep up the good work with the Spank-O-Matic.

 

[Musskiah]

How is investing on a thesis gambling? Expecting a stock to go down because of a valuation model is as much gambling as it's expecting it to go up based on an a valuation model. The stock is down 33% from when I started the short, how do you think I lost money?

I hope for your sake you closed the position

 

[Musskiah]

My personal opinion (having some involvement both in production and automotive engineering through the companies I own - small companies) is that there's no way they can make a car that makes a profit at 25000$. You look in a Model 3, where could they cut 40% of cost?

The same way OEMs make $20k, $30k, and $40k cars at different costs, all with hundreds more parts than Teslas.

 

[Richard007]

Terrific Tesla discussion on All In podcast - we’re going back to $250 this week or next

Hurray longs !

 

[2daMoon]

Right now, based on data, the disengagement rate of FSD is approximately two orders of magnitude worse compared to Waymo's. If you have better data, I'm happy to re-consider my position.

Please let me know the definition of "disengagement rate" for Waymo, and for Tesla. I suspect they are not the same. This was covered a week or so ago using the spreadsheet data from Waymo. There, it appears a "disengagement" for them is when they send someone to the vehicle's location to recover it. Are you unable to include new information in your thesis?

It might very well be that Waymo manages to reduce the price of their sensor stack and then it makes more sense to license their technology.

Another comedian amongst the ranks of the nay-sayers. Though I'll grant that Waymo's hardware will be the most likely to be found on an ICE vehicle.

Again, if I were an OEM, I'd hedge my bets and not commit to a solution before autonomy chooses its winner.

Are you an OEM? I didn't think so.

But, any OEM thinking like you would will fall behind. Several have been thinking that way. The ones who survive will not continue to do so.

 

[alexxs88]

Are you an OEM? I didn't think so.

But, any OEM thinking like you would will fall behind. Several have been thinking that way. The ones who survive will not continue to do so.

Your attitude is certainly hilarious. And judging by your predictions, what you're considering "a base case" is certainly incredibly optimistic. I wonder what happens if I go 3-4-5 years back and look at the time estimates of people like yourself, of when getting FSD will be a no-brainer and any company that doesn't have it will be doomed.

 

[MartinAustin]

Anybody know when Waymo and Cruise are launching in China? /S

Honest answer... if www. google .com is banned in China, does that company have any products at all in China? Google is well-known to follow the geopolitical goals of the U.S. Government. Perhaps Waymo will clearly never operate in China.

Add "FSD" to "a 100%-owned factory with no JV" to the list of things Tesla has managed to operate in China

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, well, well...glad to see Tesla is not discriminated against

NHTSA opens investigation into Ford’s BlueCruise after software linked to fatal crash

Like Tesla, Ford’s BlueCruise is now also under investigation.

www.theverge.com

 

[alexxs88]

Please let me know the definition of "disengagement rate" for Waymo, and for Tesla. I suspect they are not the same. This was covered a week or so ago using the spreadsheet data from Waymo. There, it appears a "disengagement" for them

No, that's wrong.

Disengagement Reports - California DMV

Autonomous vehicle manufacturers that are testing vehicles in the Autonomous Vehicle Tester (AVT) Program and AVT Driverless Program are required to submit annual reports to share how often their vehicles disengaged from autonomous mode during tests.

www.dmv.ca.gov

 

[MP3Mike]

No, that's wrong.

Disengagement Reports - California DMV

Autonomous vehicle manufacturers that are testing vehicles in the Autonomous Vehicle Tester (AVT) Program and AVT Driverless Program are required to submit annual reports to share how often their vehicles disengaged from autonomous mode during tests.

www.dmv.ca.gov

Really? Did you bother looking at what you linked to? 2023 data:

Every disengagement for a driverless Waymo was for an "In-field retrieval". i.e. exactly what @2daMoon said. (No amount of remote assistance being required is reported.)

 

[lafrisbee]

So TSLA went up 10% in a matter of hours based on Tesla FSD moving forward in China?
China?

This price movement is based on whose investment model? DO they have a clue what China will require "FSD" to become IN China?

China? FSD? worth 63 Billion dollars?

This stock price is a joke. The only thing I can think is causing it is some short squeeze coming into play.

 

[2daMoon]

Your attitude is certainly hilarious. And judging by your predictions, what you're considering "a base case" is certainly incredibly optimistic. I wonder what happens if I go 3-4-5 years back and look at the time estimates of people like yourself, of when getting FSD will be a no-brainer and any company that doesn't have it will be doomed.

I have offered neither a "base case" nor a prediction.

I've only presented a five year timeline as an estimate for how long it takes an OEM to develop a new model that includes the Tesla package. Do you offer a different estimate for an OEM to bring a new model from sketch to showroom?

Likewise, I've pointed out how the rate of solving edge cases seems to have accelerated with the technology jump between two versions of FSD. Do you not believe that the speed of solving edge cases increases by increasing data and compute power? If so, say so.

Based upon the coverage of Tesla FSD's capabilities, and reviews by experienced Beta-testers, compared to similar feedback (or the absence of it) from users of others from the EU, US, CN, all attempting to solve FSD, it would seem foolish to not consider Tesla as being at the forefront of development of this technology.

If you were asked to select one to be most on the cusp of solving autonomy, which company's autonomous system do you choose?

If you continue to avoid providing answers to the replies that end in "?" how does this validate your thesis?

 

[cliff harris]

Any OEM that doesn't make at least one model capable of being licensed for Tesla FSD will be behind any other OEM who does.

The OEM will get all the profit from the vehicle sale. This should keep the lights on for them.

Licensing will not be costly to them, but it will limit application of FSD to BEVs ONLY. This will accelerate the mission. Remember, the Mission?

This is only the situation where Tesla 'plays nice' with other car companies. They do not have to.
They could insist on a dramatically higher royalty for FSD than they get from Tesla cars. Why not? What are legacy auto's other options in a world where customers absolutely expect FSD? Apple charges 30% of ALL app revenue, when the marginal cost of an app placement on their store is trivial. There is no law that would prevent Tesla charging its users $99/month for FSD but demanding $149/month for non Tesla subscriptions 'to cover our integration overhead'.
Alternatively, Elon could just decree that FSD licenses are only available to companies who sell > 75% of there vehicles as BEV.

I'm not saying Tesla WILL do this, but if they play hardball they can. Then could even just refuse to license it to anyone and watch the legacy car companies go bankrupt in quick succession.
I don't think legacy auto has any clue what a nightmare position they will be in.

 

[2daMoon]

No, that's wrong.

Disengagement Reports - California DMV

Autonomous vehicle manufacturers that are testing vehicles in the Autonomous Vehicle Tester (AVT) Program and AVT Driverless Program are required to submit annual reports to share how often their vehicles disengaged from autonomous mode during tests.

www.dmv.ca.gov

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This is a superb example of absence of critical thinking. Reducing price on FSD is really a waste. It could and should be a Premium feature. Reducing the price of a fundamentally revolutionary product actually diminishes the perceived value. The idiotic idea that a revolutionary product is...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[2daMoon]

This is only the situation where Tesla 'plays nice' with other car companies. They do not have to.
They could insist on a dramatically higher royalty for FSD than they get from Tesla cars. Why not? What are legacy auto's other options in a world where customers absolutely expect FSD? Apple charges 30% of ALL app revenue, when the marginal cost of an app placement on their store is trivial. There is no law that would prevent Tesla charging its users $99/month for FSD but demanding $149/month for non Tesla subscriptions 'to cover our integration overhead'.
Alternatively, Elon could just decree that FSD licenses are only available to companies who sell > 75% of there vehicles as BEV.

I'm not saying Tesla WILL do this, but if they play hardball they can. Then could even just refuse to license it to anyone and watch the legacy car companies go bankrupt in quick succession.
I don't think legacy auto has any clue what a nightmare position they will be in.

They certainly could, but, considering how those OEMs have paid for some of the FSD development by buying credits from Tesla, maybe they will cut them some slack.