Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

It's like some of you are begging for attention from bears, then complaining when people post negative interpretations of developments.

Don’t be obtuse. It’s simply a factual observation being made. There’s literally over a decade of evidence on this forum of a certain segment of the population coming here to boast when the SP is being artificially depressed, who then summarily vanish when the SP is being allowed to run.

We've seen this before, strong runups on hopes of certain developments, then results come in.

Yes, indeed. We’ve seen the SP run up by 1,000s of % on absolutely nothing. Zero results. No factories exist making millions of cars, no #1 selling vehicle of any kind in the world last year happened, no utility storage division, no N/N development has happened, no NA wide fast charging standard invented, deployed worldwide, or adopted by 95%ish of OEMS -

Xi would've asked for A LOT in exchange for favoring an external auto company over their own. Elon's bet is that FSD will be enough to push the sales of Tesla in China, as they've dropped hard in Q2.

Oh, you know him personally? Had tea at his home recently and you’re privy to his deepest thoughts and conversations with Elon. Please do share.

 

[Cattledog]

Perhaps this weekend will be seen as a turning point where Elon goes back to being perceived as a huge asset for Tesla and TSLA rather than the recent US, X-based narratives depicting him as a liability. There are less than 10 CEOs in the world, perhaps less than 2, who could go do what he did over the weekend. It would be be awesome to see some version of an India deal in the near future, Tesla entrenched in the world's 3 largest markets moving forward.

Reckless growth, anyone (that one is for the old-timers here...)?

 

[wtlloyd]

We’ll see what happens when market opens but I have a feeling $190 is the line in the sand today. It got over it briefly before being stuffed down.

Regardless, the tail is in full control today.

This is the kind of news that generates irrational exubereance.
I think we'll spike far above that.

 

[hobbes]

Besides meeting Li on the short trip to Beijing, Musk met the organiser of the ongoing Beijing auto show. The chairman of Chinese battery giant CATL (300750.SZ), opens new tab Robin Zeng, a key Tesla battery supplier, also visited Musk's hotel on Monday, according to a Reuters witness.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/boss-battery-giant-catl-visits-elon-musks-hotel-beijing-reuters-witness-2024-04-29/

 

[Krugerrand]

The first tweet has been deleted and replaced by this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1784928269336248773

Regardless of how things are exactly worded - because there’s definitely some ‘maybe - for sure’ going on, there’s a hole in the dike. It may trickle water for a while or burst wide open at any second.

*manic laughter*

 

[CHGolferJim]

Perhaps this weekend will be seen as a turning point where Elon goes back to being perceived as a huge asset for Tesla and TSLA rather than the recent US, X-based narratives depicting him as a liability. There are less than 10 CEOs in the world, perhaps less than 2, who could go do what he did over the weekend. It would be be awesome to see some version of an India deal in the near future, Tesla entrenched in the world's 3 largest markets moving forward.

Reckless growth, anyone (that one is for the old-timers here...)?

Or this could be a deal in development for sometime, and EM flew in to ink the deal (akin to head of state meetings). Doubt it was made from scratch in a day………

 

[2daMoon]

Everybody got their ready for the opening bell?

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's still unclear to me how Tesla will train FSD for the Chinese market.

SpaceX autonomous barge ship, anchored 12.1 nautical miles off the coast of San Francisco. Obvs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I got my Cybertruck. No more bad words about Tesla. I’m sowwy

View attachment 1042823

So, gloss Cobalt blue wrap?

 

[Krugerrand]

One response from Chinese Owner. I find it interesting. Can anybody from here comment on this?

Boon
@booncooll

As a Chinese and a modelY car owner, Baidu is not a good choice. Amap is more trustworthy. Many Chinese Tesla owners need to install a mobile phone holder for their Tesla because they are not used to using Baidu Maps. Let’s use the Amap Map APP in the mobile APP. Amap Map is more accurate and easier to use than Baidu Map. But whether to use Amap or Baidu Map, ELON seems to have no choice.

Stale thinking. Boxed thinking. Static thinking.

Maybe Tesla helps make Baidu better. Maybe people simply learn how to use Baidu maps. Maybe it all becomes something very different than you can currently imagine.

Instead of looking for the ways it can’t work, look for the ways it can work. Then you might see what Elon sees.

Elon always has a choice. And this is what he’s chosen for Tesla in this moment. Relax. Sit back and watch how he continues to carry the company forward. It’ll be fine.

 

[alexxs88]

Don’t be obtuse. It’s simply a factual observation being made. There’s literally over a decade of evidence on this forum of a certain segment of the population coming here to boast when the SP is being artificially depressed, who then summarily vanish when the SP is being allowed to run.


Yes, indeed. We’ve seen the SP run up by 1,000s of % on absolutely nothing. Zero results. No factories exist making millions of cars, no #1 selling vehicle of any kind in the world last year happened, no utility storage division, no N/N development has happened, no NA wide fast charging standard invented, deployed worldwide, or adopted by 95%ish of OEMS -

Oh, you know him personally? Had tea at his home recently and you’re privy to his deepest thoughts and conversations with Elon. Please do share.

You’re so full of it, I can smell you through my keyboard.

Again, "ad hominem" for no reason other than providing an alternative viewpoint? Maybe you should try to calm down? As I said before, I was long when the challenge was to build cars, something that people have been doing for over a century, now when autonomous cars are talked about like they're just around the corner, that I'm not so confident in. All the things that you mention as achievements are orders of magnitude simpler than doing something NO OTHER COMPANY has done and which we don't even know if it's possible or not with their current sensor stack or compute power.

You're free to believe that the ruler of China gives concessions to US companies in exchange for nothing. At the same time as the US is trying to ban TikTok out of existence. If you need to have tea with a person to be able to judge even simple actions based on past behaviour...

 

[Usain]

This is the kind of news that generates irrational exubereance.
I think we'll spike far above that.

I'm not sure it's really so irrational.

If you put all the FSD puzzle pieces together, the image of Tesla's autonomous future becomes clear.

Even without robotaxi, FSD alone should be enough for Tesla to trade at $500/share.

I know that I will never buy another car that you have to drive manually. When others start to feel the same way I do, nobody will want those manual-drive dinosaurs.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is the kind of news that generates irrational exubereance.
I think we'll spike far above that.

We’ll see. I think they’ll want to try and hamstring it below $190 today to give themselves time to reposition. But we have seen it get away from their control a time or two. No doubt I’d love to see that. The party has begun.

 

[sunwarriors]

It's like some of you are begging for attention from bears, then complaining when people post negative interpretations of developments. We've seen this before, strong runups on hopes of certain developments, then results come in.

Xi would've asked for A LOT in exchange for favoring an external auto company over their own. Elon's bet is that FSD will be enough to push the sales of Tesla in China, as they've dropped hard in Q2.

We'll just have to see how this plays out over the much longer term like months, after 8/8, years. Stock has been battered so much this year really (it was at ~250 at the start of year).

I think Elon Musk is very pro-China that there is no doubt he will cater to anything required, especially on things China cares more about (like Taiwan and his comments last year below). He said nothing with all their COVID lockdowns because he knows China can shutdown Tesla if they wanted to and Elon needs China.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/14/business/elon-musk-taiwan-china-comments-intl-hnk/index.html

India is a less developed nation compared to China with poor roads/transport/less infra so China is far more important to Musk if he had to choose I'd think.

 

[Coolio2000]

Volume at 33,000,000 in the first 7 minutes!

 

[hitchhiker]

Any deal involves giving something in exchange. My guesses are that China gets either:
- license FSD to Biadu
or
- Musk agrees to buy the US portion of TikTok (either through X or Tesla -- probably X)

 

[alexxs88]

Even without robotaxi, FSD alone should be enough for Tesla to trade at $500/share.

That's a hard thing to justify really. If we're being really optimistic and assume a 30% take rate for FSD, average vehicle lifetime of 10 years, it means you get:

2m cars x 100$ x 12 x 10 x 0.3 = 7.2B / year in revenue. Triple the volume (a pipe dream with current factories and models) and you get only 22B in revenue. Factor in a software gross margin of 80% and that's only 16B in bottom line.

 

[nativewolf]

What do you mean by no profits? If shanghai produces a model Y that is then exported to the UK, presumably the profit from that outside-china sale flows to the US?

Sure they can export it and make a profit. Can't sell it in China and make a profit. In the meantime they've made BYD a better company and Greely too. Now Greely is taking the very best 4680 form battery cells and packaging them into a vehicle built by gigapress's and selling those to Waymo to compete against Tesla in the RT market, likely beating Tesla in all 3 areas. So sure, teach China how FSD should be really done. Great.

Short term win, long term ..not so rosy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps this weekend will be seen as a turning point where Elon goes back to being perceived as a huge asset for Tesla and TSLA

Certainly this is likely to be the case at least through the AGM in june. Also likely to continue if Elon is offered a new compensation package which is put up for a vote of the shareholders. This is exactly what happened in 2018 when his CEO compensation package was announced. This contract took Tesla's market cap from $60 billion to well over $650 billion in the course of a few years. Investors can hear this whistle coming like a long slow train in the fog.

 

[2daMoon]

We’ll see. I think they’ll want to try and hamstring it below $190 today to give themselves time to reposition. But we have seen it get away from their control a time or two. No doubt I’d love to see that. The party has begun.

"They're givin' it all the got Capt'n, but the dilithium crystals are getting overheated."
- said the chief engineer to the Mind of the GSV ship, Mandatory Morning Dip​