Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

They all knew that was temporary and they did have time to plan.

Clearly, they did not have time to plan. Elon tweeted about that just today. He said that you cannot change a multi-billion dollar supply chain that quickly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782820330450612443

You should also note that GM also did not have its Ultimum batteries qualified in time.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Still a bad analogy. It's not really a phone without cell connection.

We shall see about the doors it opens. It's still up in the air if FSD Supervised will be a different product than actual FSD.

You can make calls over wifi. And pretty much do everything over wifi on your phone. Analogy upheld.

 

[Usain]

And it smacks of having been done deliberately, on a politically motivated basis. Recently Jeep plug in hybrids with 30 miles of range are getting the full $7,500 credit while Tesla Model 3s the most made in America sedan received nothing. And it's union-based.

Yes, the hybrid part was definitely political. It is there because of Joe Manchin (D-WV). He was the swing vote and he was carrying water for Toyota, who has a large presence in his state.

IMHO, the materials sourcing requirements are good policy. The US needs to develop its own supply chain.

 

[Buckminster]

There are parallels with Dojo and 4680s and probably other products:

Elon does not want to be second best and these products have real competition and it is an evolving requirement - not Tesla killers like the VW iD4 but Nvidia and CATL. Elon will have delayed their manufacturing ramp more than once to ensure that the volume product is best in market or at least close.

 

[EQC_]

Elon completely leaving out the real reason. His losing bet on 4680 is why Tesla doesn't have enough US battery supply. They had two years to prepare for the EV tax credit qualifiers. That is why Model 3 doesn't qualify.

This one I will disagree with you:

4680 was not a bet. It was and is an effort. And, not only did Tesla work it on their own, they managed to convince other battery cell manufacturers to work on building cells of the same dimensions...and those other manufacturer factories aren't online yet either. And, Tesla didn't stop buying a wide array of other formats of cells from many other suppliers, so it's not like the 4680 somehow signaled Tesla didn't want other cells anymore.

Even if 4680 is behind some assumed schedule, I don't know what other battery supply could Tesla have realistically brought online in the US by now. Tesla simultaneously announced their 4680 goals while also saying they would buy any and all qualified cells from suppliers. Tesla indicated they would need terrawatt hours of cells per year. They stated huge numbers for their projected need for cells, but they can't "make" suppliers build more factories and they can't just wish their own technology development and production ramps to magically go faster.

The only thing I can really think of is, I guess, Tesla could have bought other battery cell manufacturers' patents and trade secrets and factory designs, and just copy-pasted those in massive numbers in the US. Something tells me that isn't exactly realistic -- if Panasonic or LG can't scale or copy-paste their own factories fast enough, I'm not sure how Tesla would be able to buy the necessary patents and trade secrets from them, and somehow come out ahead trying to do exactly that.

We know Tesla buys a wide variety of cells from suppliers in China. Obvious message from Tesla about their demand for any variety of qualified cells.

We know Panasonic is still ramping up Giga Nevada 2170 production. They have always been slow/hesitant to ramp...but I don't see any sign that it is Tesla holding them back at this point. I'm sure Tesla would love to be able to have enough 2170's from Nevada to fill all the Model 3's and Y's built at Fremont...but it's Panasonic that hasn't ramped up to meet the obvious demand.

We know Panasonic is also working on building 4680 cells in the US, but their factories won't be ready for a year or two.

We know LG is also working on building 4680 cells, but their factories also aren't ready.

I really just don't understand what Tesla could have or should have done to somehow get more US-made battery supply.

 

[2daMoon]

Just to play devil's advocate here: Billionaires don't like their CEOs involving themselves in distractions that cost them hundreds of millions of dollars. Tit for Tat, you cost me, I cost you ... now how does it feel?

Didn't I just say that?

Just pointing out the irony with Leo.
At least Ross sold some TSLA. Leo is going in deeper AND wanting to punish the man that made Tesla what it is today.

 

[MikeC]

Just to be clear, that means you are voting for Tesla to give billions of dollars worth of TSLA stock to the plaintiff and their lawyers, diluting all stocker holders. (And they will probably dump a ton of it on the market depressing the stock even more.) I can't see any way in which voting against it is good for stockholders. (Regardless of if you think Elon deserves the compensation, that had already been approved and earned, or not.)

If he gets his compensation plan, does Tesla not still have to pay the lawyers?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Right now I do not have an opinion on the Board's proposal to leave Delaware and reincorporate into Texas, because I don't understand the ramifications. Is there anyone who knows more about this topic?

Hoping to see a written rationale from Tesla on the subject, so that comments can flow……..

 

[SOULPEDL]

I agree it's not something that can be forced now, but when FSD is solved, not purchasing it with the car would be like buying an iPhone without any cell/mobile plan.

True story, I switched from Android to Apple last year 100% because of the Apple Camera and 3D scanner. Take that tech out, no deal (and I grew up at Intel).
For nearly my whole life, Volvo was the name for safety. Now it is Tesla, and safety sells.

 

[2daMoon]

You can make calls over wifi. And pretty much do everything over wifi on your phone. Analogy upheld.

So, what you're saying is the phone without a plan is not Full Self Calling. (won't receive calls autonomously)
You have to pay extra for that feature, or, you can manually connect to WiFi to make or receive calls.

Sounds legit.

 

[2daMoon]

This one I will disagree with you:

4680 was not a bet. It was and is an effort. And, not only did Tesla work it on their own, they managed to convince other battery cell manufacturers to work on building cells of the same dimensions...and those other manufacturer factories aren't online yet either. And, Tesla didn't stop buying a wide array of other formats of cells from many other suppliers, so it's not like the 4680 somehow signaled Tesla didn't want other cells anymore.

Even if 4680 is behind some assumed schedule, I don't know what other battery supply could Tesla have realistically brought online in the US by now. Tesla simultaneously announced their 4680 goals while also saying they would buy any and all qualified cells from suppliers. Tesla indicated they would need terrawatt hours of cells per year. They stated huge numbers for their projected need for cells, but they can't "make" suppliers build more factories and they can't just wish their own technology development and production ramps to magically go faster.

The only thing I can really think of is, I guess, Tesla could have bought other battery cell manufacturers' patents and trade secrets and factory designs, and just copy-pasted those in massive numbers in the US. Something tells me that isn't exactly realistic -- if Panasonic or LG can't scale or copy-paste their own factories fast enough, I'm not sure how Tesla would be able to buy the necessary patents and trade secrets from them, and somehow come out ahead trying to do exactly that.

We know Tesla buys a wide variety of cells from suppliers in China. Obvious message from Tesla about their demand for any variety of qualified cells.

We know Panasonic is still ramping up Giga Nevada 2170 production. They have always been slow/hesitant to ramp...but I don't see any sign that it is Tesla holding them back at this point. I'm sure Tesla would love to be able to have enough 2170's from Nevada to fill all the Model 3's and Y's built at Fremont...but it's Panasonic that hasn't ramped up to meet the obvious demand.

We know Panasonic is also working on building 4680 cells in the US, but their factories won't be ready for a year or two.

We know LG is also working on building 4680 cells, but their factories also aren't ready.

I really just don't understand what Tesla could have or should have done to somehow get more US-made battery supply.

Add to this how Tesla is trying to figure out a new dry electrode manufacturing technology to reduce footprint for the factory, and speed up the process.

 

[unk45]

Here's more information on the new Texas business court.

Welcome to Texas: Texas Governor Signs Law Creating Specialized Business Courts

www.sidley.com

Nearly all the foundation of my opinion is based on that legislation from last year. Note the judges are appointed for only two years and are 100% political appointees every time. That certainly will keep them 'in line'. Would you have your business depend on those courts?

 

[geometro]

New Model 3 Performance review by Marques Brownlee:

Wish they had launched this later in the week or month.... seems like an intentional distraction from earnings today. Which is concerning.... I hope to be wrong!

 

[cliff harris]

It feels like 4680 is a decade long megaproject. I think writing it off now is definitely premature. There was a LOT of tech discussed at 'battery day', and some of it is already in the cars, some of it is not yet. I definitely get the impression that Tesla are very focused on pushing battery technology as much as they can. I am also aware of elon's obsession with 'the machine that builds the machine'. He is more interested in the factory than the car. We might, as investors have preferred in the short term to just have Tesla expand as fast as possible, and build out massive capability, but I think Tesla's approach to factories is like spacex with rockets.
Fremont doesn't count, its a trainwreck designed in the dark ages, and not be Tesla.
GF Nevada was their first attempt to build a facility. Not bad.
GF shanghai was their first attempt to build a vehicle factory. Very good.
GF Berlin & Texas built a lot on shanghai, and was the first time Tesla tried 2 massive buildouts at the same time. Maybe this went poorly and they regretted it?
GF Mexico will be next level.
I would love to hear tonight that Tesla have absolutely perfected 4680 production, and huge ramp was imminent. However I wont be shocked if thats not the case. They are obsessed with efficiency. They wont build out 10 4680 lines if they think they have ideas to make the line even faster before copy/paste.

 

[Knightshade]

You seem to forgotten that Treasury / IRS never finalized the battery requirement rules until March of 2023 (even though Congress required them to produce the rules by the end of December 2022). Then they changed the rules afterwards, to include the foreign materials sourcing requirement. This is what is making the model 3 battery cells ineligible.

This not accurate as GatorMeat already corrected you on.

Recently Jeep plug in hybrids with 30 miles of range are getting the full $7,500 credit while Tesla Model 3s the most made in America sedan received nothing. And it's union-based.

This, too, is not accurate. The Jeeps only get a $3750 credit.

Further- the Model 3 performance does get the full $7500.

As does all trims of the Y, and even the X if it's under 80k.

Tesla will receive vastly more IRA money than Jeep will this year.


Your claims have been pretty consistently exaggerated or just outright inaccurate for a while now- might want to see to that.

 

[Singuy]

Wish they had launched this later in the week or month.... seems like an intentional distraction from earnings today. Which is concerning.... I hope to be wrong!

Alex, I would like to take "reading too much into things" for $400 please.

Who is they? Marquis doesn't work for Tesla. He uploads whenever the video is done and post processed.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wish they had launched this later in the week or month.... seems like an intentional distraction from earnings today. Which is concerning.... I hope to be wrong!

The makings of the Marketing Team and why they were let go?

 

[Knightshade]

Alex, I would like to take "reading too much into things" for $400 please.

Who is they? Marquis doesn't work for Tesla. He uploads whenever the video is done and post processed.

He does not work for Tesla.

But Tesla absolutely had an embargo on anyone with early access publishing anything until, specifically, this afternoon. That's why there's now, at roughly the same time, a bunch of reviews dropping from various influencers. Such embargos are quite common across most industries- and influencers respect them pretty reliably (or they lose access in the future)

 

[sunwarriors]

Still a bad analogy. It's not really a phone without cell connection.

We shall see about the doors it opens. It's still up in the air if FSD Supervised will be a different product than actual FSD.

Yeah, those were bad analogies. I think a better one is an iPad/iWatch without cellular service (which cost more and has a monthly fee which they suggested a forced FSD monthly fee will be similar to).

You can't use the iPad online when not on WiFI, but the thing works pretty much just as good (play games, download offline movies on Netflix, etc like non-FSD will still take you to destination A if you don't have it) since you can drive it yourself. Is driving really that painful for that many people who will shell out a fair amount of $$ for it (most post $299/month for unsupervised)? I know folks here can't live without it, but will the larger population (where 50% don't like EVs for political reasons) and most people aren't rich.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hoping to see a written rationale from Tesla on the subject, so that comments can flow……..

Tesla wrote a 500 page briefing for shareholders and created a separate website on the subject. You've visited it already haven't you?

Tesla - Protecting Your Investment and Tesla’s Future

At this year’s Annual General Meeting of Stockholders, we will be asking you to help support the continuation of Tesla’s extraordinary growth by approving two important proposals unanimously recommended by the Tesla Board.

www.supportteslavalue.com