"BNEF estimates that annual worldwide public-charging revenue will rise to $127 billion by 2030, with probably the most familiar company — Tesla — on track to mop up $7.4 billion, or around 6%, of all that business."
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L2 FSD, I agree.
L4 FSD gives time back to people. That will be worth more.
To whom though?
Business people who do work on their phones and laptops probably, but certainly not most people like nurses, electricians, machine operators, plumbers, etc. Most people would simply watch Netflix or play games while their car drives them around, or even sleep, and for those people I doubt having a virtual chauffer is worth $12K or more.
Now don't get me wrong, FSD is going to make Tesla lots of money. I just don't think its going to be anywhere near as super lucrative as most TSLA bulls seem to want.
Elon has been about safety long before 2018. He stopped delivering the Model S in early days because the new seat designed didn’t garner a 5* rating. Elon did this during a time Tesla needed those sales. To prevent further issues in this area, not only did Tesla design their own seats for the S, but they took the whole thing in house from that point forward.I don’t know how it would unfold, but I wouldn’t count on that angle being a big profit centre.
Have you heard Elon talk about an accident in 2018 with Barrett Riley and how it spurred him to improve safety?
The company won’t care about profiteering, they’ll care about saving lives — that I believe.
6% only? Who is getting the other 94% of all that business?
"BNEF estimates that annual worldwide public-charging revenue will rise to $127 billion by 2030, with probably the most familiar company — Tesla — on track to mop up $7.4 billion, or around 6%, of all that business."
The guy who just had a heart attack would.The real question is would one be willing to get into a vehicle controlled by the present software to take you to your destination safely, and accept the liability?
I’ve been trying to think of a company that locks critical public safety features behind a software toggle and monthly subscription but am not having any luck, can you think of something comparable?Maybe you’ll want to start by talking to government at all levels and organizations and companies and financial institutions and media that already put people’s lives at risk every single day, not to mention all that have at least tried to slow Tesla, if not outright end Tesla.
After they all step forward and stop their shenanigans, do what’s best for people, then we can talk about out how Tesla should simply give away billions of dollars of investment into FSD for free. Next you’ll be suggesting they give the cars away for free too because they have the highest safety ratings and people tend not to die them.
No. I absolutely don’t think people will engage their brains. And for that reason I don’t think Tesla raising their warranty will do squat for sales. See what I did there?Do you really think people are going to engage their brains? Have you met people?
I'm not saying that Tesla should raise their battery warranty to 200,000 miles out of the goodness of their hearts. I'm saying they should do it because they can. They should do it because it will sell more cars and put the competition in a very tough spot.
6% only? Who is getting the other 94% of all that business?
Yes. That’s a great book! I need to read it again; however here’s a quote from it that might be applicable.It’s all in the book, Innovators Dilemma. Clayton Christiansen.
Don't know about the US and the rest of the world but in Sweden I doubt that Tesla has more than a few percent of all charging revenue. Sweden has about 4,700 public charging stations and 35,000 charging points (Laddinfrastruktur i Sverige) whereas Tesla has about 90 superchargers (https://www.tesla.com/en_US/findus/list/superchargers/Sweden) Most charging stations here are run by the large electricity companies6% only? Who is getting the other 94% of all that business?
Tesla already includes safety software with their cars. Or have you forgotten that? On top of the cars themselves exceeding physical safety standards.I’ve been trying to think of a company that locks critical public safety features behind a software toggle and monthly subscription but am not having any luck, can you think of something comparable?
To be honest I think the public has a stake in all this, because what’s being done with FSD today wouldn’t be possible without all the data coming in from drivers, from the infrastructure, even from non-Tesla drivers on the road who are interacting with the vehicles. Data collection in vehicles will probably become a much bigger topic in coming years.
But I don’t think arguing about this really matters because I genuinely believe the company’s leadership wouldn’t lock safety critical stuff out like this, and I don’t believe Elon would do that. And if/when the leadership did just include it by default, people will flip and herald it as a great move anyways lol
Looks at max-pain...right at 172.50....checks SP....yep...all normalMonthly buy of another 54 shares at $172.30, the accumulation continues, such low low prices!
The model gets bigger yes, but does not require lots of computational power on the inference side which is what the fsd computer is doing once the algorithmis trained. It only needs to serve one end user so you can't compare it to cloud based inferencing datacenters which serves million of users simultaneously. 72 TOPs is pretty extensive for only a few output answers (speed, go, brake, left, right, reverse) and only for one car.
Wall. Of. Pics.
Yes a Model Y type delivery van would likely sell very well, especially in Europe.How about offering gutted 2-person cargo models for postal/local delivery/camping use?
Even if folded, those rear seats eat up a LOT of extra space.
One of the points of a FSD system was to utilize the car instead of parking it. So a family might not need multiple cars in an FSD world. Can be used to school pickups and kids activities before even thinking about other non family use cases.To whom though?
Business people who do work on their phones and laptops probably, but certainly not most people like nurses, electricians, machine operators, plumbers, etc. Most people would simply watch Netflix or play games while their car drives them around, or even sleep, and for those people I doubt having a virtual chauffer is worth $12K or more.
Now, would it be worth $99/mo? Or even $49/mo? Probably,
Now don't get me wrong, FSD is going to make Tesla lots of money. I just don't think its going to be anywhere near as super lucrative as most TSLA bulls seem to want.
Headroom is assuming Tesla will only add more and more complex algorithmis which chews up the limited memory avaliable. However we have seen the opposite is happening as Tesla is reducing complexity by taking away all the safety clutches in place because NN wasn't well trained enough years ago. This is just the beginning, lots of software optimization will be happening to improve performance. All the analysts 5 years ago believe the fsd computer will no way be enough to complete intervention free drives in major cities, and yet here we are.What I meant is that datacenters can increase model sizes orders of magnitude larger by simply adding more computers. For edge computing applications like FSD, the model size is limited to available memory without expensive retrofits in the field.
It's worth noting that real time edge models can't batch as well as datacenter LLMs, so some efficiency is lost. However, I assume Tesla is already batching to the extent possible within their latency constraints.
Do you/anyone have estimates on the current model / memory footprint for FSD 12? This would give an idea of how much headroom they have in case their model needs to increase.
For sure -- that's what I mostly do... though right now it takes a couple of blocks to slow down from the normal speed limit to the school zone speed limit. It'd be nice if there were a happy medium.Why don’t you just start dialing down your speed sooner so the car arrives at the school zone at the appropriate speed!? That’s all I do now. It’s easy to just give the car more runway so you arrive at the sign at the correct speed.