380 miles City Miles 2DE Critical on 12.3. 146 miles on 12.3.3
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
380 miles City Miles 2DE Critical on 12.3. 146 miles on 12.3.3
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Bottom of the first chart you'll find the graph
Musskiah
DisGruntled
Thumper
Active Member
Maybe the Robotaxi is the van not the M2. You heard it here first.
haha, then people need to use the correct stat of how many Tesla's on the road are actually able to use FSD.
No, they did not split it out. It seemed like it was for both parts and labor. I was going to get it yesterday, as the app says it's just $1,000 for the hardware upgrade, but found out that's only if you buy FSD. Just the hardware upgrade is a little over $1,900.
Tesla would never launch a service that had an accident every 10,000 miles. That’s way worse than the average driver.
Krugerrand
Meow
Well, how the scenario is eventually handled is that both of you are in Teslas (or Tesla FSD licensed vehicles
) and the cars execute the situation regardless of the sign language of the human occupants. Seat dance for all the car will car.I’m not dismissing the myriad of edge cases or imaginative one off scenarios that everyone can come up with. What I’m getting at is that the vast majority of them likely don’t need to be individually solved for by programmers or AI or the NN or whatever. But rather once there’s enough FSD vehicles on the road, people will just let the cars do their thing. Additionally, as word spreads people are going to know that others are in self-driving cars, so should begin to understand that things like not obeying the rules of the road, even out of an abundance of Canadian politeness, isn’t going to work.
I have no idea when this tipping point occurs. Heck, we’ve been trying to determine the EV tipping point for years. I think the latter one is nearer than imagined because of all the hard scrambling going on to tell the world (North America
) recently that nobody wants EVs and watching some OEMs back up like their faces are on fire.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
RE hand signals,
This is a solved problem via neural networks. Waymo has had the ability to do it for awhile:
And no, Waymo does not have any special sauce that Tesla doesn’t have to do this. Tesla’s just handling things in priority order of severity and frequency, and things like hand signals, school zones, and stopping for emergency vehicles is lower down the list. But I think we’ll see all of these situations handled withon 6 months or so.
Krugerrand
Meow
I agree.
Like buy for life or buy at least a one month subscription? If the latter, couldn’t you just say - um…everyone else getting a free one month trial. I want that after I have you upgrade by hardware. That seems reasonable.
All these models seem to assume that the robotaxis will be privately owned, and therefore Tesla has to share some of the profit. Why would tehy bother to do that rather than just own them themselves?
I know Elon proposed a "use your car as a profit center for us" model years ago. But he's proposed all sorts of things over the years that he pivoted away from. IMHO, if Tesla really is going to do this, they'll own and operate all the cars. And while they may have a dual-purpose model 2, all the manufacturing will be soaked up by the Robotaxi use for quite some time. Its not that they would be 'canceling' the small personal car -- its that producing it isn't the best use of manufacturing capacity so it would be low on the priority list. I see it as a backup plan... if regulatory approval takes longer than they'd like, they may produce and sell the personal version until it gets done.
I know Elon proposed a "use your car as a profit center for us" model years ago. But he's proposed all sorts of things over the years that he pivoted away from. IMHO, if Tesla really is going to do this, they'll own and operate all the cars. And while they may have a dual-purpose model 2, all the manufacturing will be soaked up by the Robotaxi use for quite some time. Its not that they would be 'canceling' the small personal car -- its that producing it isn't the best use of manufacturing capacity so it would be low on the priority list. I see it as a backup plan... if regulatory approval takes longer than they'd like, they may produce and sell the personal version until it gets done.
So DID Tesla scrap their cheap model? I get there’s a robotaxi reveal, but isn’t this 2 different things?
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Change your though process slightly and you'll see that doesn't matter.While I understand the thought process and where we are going with this, I've seen a lot of people just lump all the Tesla cars on the road into a statistic like number 4 on the list.
Reality though, is that there are thousands of owners like me who have 2.5 hardware and would have to upgrade first (which is a little over $1,900 for the hardware upgrade - got quoted yesterday at the service center), so the round numbers people are throwing around need to lowered.
So that's first $1,900 + and then $200 a month for the legacy customers. Unless Tesla wants to upgrades us for free to drive the mission...
production has been on a exponential curve. Just assume that all new cars sold after robotaxi goes live become robotaxi and zero existing cars become robotaxi and you still get a curve like he shows.
Assume every HW 2.5 and even HW 3 car isn't in the pool and the curve is still exponential.
Add them in if you like but it doesn't change the shape of the curve after the first couple of years.
Or said another way, when in doubt zoom out!
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Krugerrand
Meow
No they did not scrap it. Reuters lied.
Oh, sorry. For the pedantic people. Reuters sources lied and Reuters didn’t bother to verify the information before going to print with it.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
RT would work well as a van with the versatility of the Canoo style that can be easily configured/reconfigured for a variety of tasks.
A single platform easily adapted for carrying People, Packages, Food, Cargo, etc. would be ideal.
In my dreams, I imagine a rig that robotically makes a pizza to order while driving to a location to deliver it. Then, when the customer arrives at the vehicle it deploys the pizza, boxed and ready to go, from a slot similar to the Starlink Pez dispenser on Starship.
Maybe I should get something to eat now...
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'm literally picking up a 2018 Model 3 today. I don't know if the FSD hardware has been upgraded or not. I'll be in one of the legacy camps in a couple of hours, and I'm not even sure which subgroup.
That doesn't change the shape of the curve to come.
I heard from a source close to the matter that Tesla is working on job postings for hiring more elves indefinitely.Well, those are pretty big presents for Santa to put in his sleigh, but he does use magic, so it sounds legit to me.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
It seems only logical then that their employment contract would include a Santa clause.
hahaha, woooooow. ok, then Elon. So what is the point of the acceleration then? Just mind your business and let it slowly develop...
It's always been about us...the planet will be fine, but it's us humans that will suffer....F*CK.
The CEO just said this. THE CEO of Tesla.
Tesla's mission statement:
It's always been about us...the planet will be fine, but it's us humans that will suffer....F*CK.
The CEO just said this. THE CEO of Tesla.
Tesla's mission statement:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW I agree with you on most of these points, but I think there's pretty near 0 owners that will take liability on themselves for their personally insured cars to drive around without a driver... If Tesla with 30B in the bank doesn't trust the product to do that, why should an individual owner? doubly so when you use Waymo as an example, and Waymo takes all responsibility for all their self-driving cars.
Tesla does own an insurance company- though the # of states it's actually legally underwriting insurance can be counted on your hands, with fingers left over- and that hasn't expanded in quite a while, and at last report was losing money.
Ideally that's the correct path- Tesla has their own insurance company and uses it to cover (on them) the liability of self driving RTs on their network... but it's a long way between here and there, especially in the dozens and dozens of states they can't even underwrite regular insurance yet--- THERE is your "it might take years to get through regulators" thing, unless Tesla instead insures with someone else while they're working on it, or just waits those years to deploy.
Other than a random guess at a price target, once, that was still wrong on target date by years, and wrong on the specifics of how it got to that target, ARKs models are consistently, hilariously, wrong about nearly everything.
Why do we need to keep reminding people of this?
With tons of awful analysts throwing out targets all over the place SOMEONE was bound to accidentally "predict" a high price for Tesla-- Cathie was lucky enough for it to be her--- but it would've been a terrible idea to give her your money to manage as her actual results, over years, make clear.
Their financial performance has been awful- worse than just buying an S&P500 index fund, over a period where their one "win" (Tesla) has massively beaten the S&P500 over the same number of years.... because everything else they've invested in has done horribly.
They got lucky, once, picking Tesla early on- and just about everything else they've done since has been terrible.
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