Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[rallykeeper]

Restricting how?

In contrast FWIW I happened to recently do an online trade in estimate at tesla.com (I've done them a couple times a year since Tesla began offering you an instant #)--- In previous years I got my # and that was it.

This time I've gotten 4 different texts from 4 different sales people at Tesla in the last few weeks asking if I need any help with the trade in process and suggesting I schedule a test drive-- and 2 more from another source (no name given) at Tesla telling me about the FSD transfer offers and telling me to go browse inventory.

Also- every single trim of S, X, and Y at tesla.com shows this-month delivery, with significant inventory (at additional discounts) available. RWD 3 is also immediate and inventory discounted- only LR AWD 3 is not and VIN data suggests that's a slow production ramp issue not a demand one.

I did the exact same thing - trade-in estimate in February. My experience is identical (except, I think I've had 5 different contacts including a couple phone calls).

New wrinkle, today they offered me 5000 free miles of Supercharging in addition to FSD transfer.

I've never been so aggressively sold-to by Tesla.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mostly yes, but perhaps no. Depends. He has folded before because it was in Tesla’s/shareholders’ favor.

Elon has only 'folded' once to my knowledge, that was in Sep 2018 under duress from Bankers threatening to pull Tesla's lines of credit (working capital) if he didn't accept the provably-false claims made by the San Francisco office of the SEC.

If fighting doesn’t hurt Tesla and doesn’t hurt ‘us’, he’ll fight like a banshee.

Elon hasn't given up on the 2018 injustice, either. Right now, its before the SCOTUS on the issue of whether it is consititutional for the SEC to issue administrative fines w/o having a day in court / trial / jury of his peers.

Some will still say this hurts investors (because they are care bears).

Cheers!

 

[DarkandStormy]

So about half of the Chinese new year celebrations were in Jan. last year, while all of it was in Feb. this year. That makes me feel better about the numbers.

Isn't YTD 2023 about the same as YTD 2024? I.e. accounting for CNY in both years.

 

[2daMoon]

Any chance it could still operate?

Well, it might be, if it were well attached. They plan to land Starship in the water tail down, then, it will sink a little as it also drops onto it's side. If it doesn't rupture the skin in the process it should be floating.

Though, even if it wouldn't run, I bet it could be restored. Then, if the stainless steel had been completely laser etched with commemorative Starship Flight Test graphics it may still bring a hefty price on the auction block.

I also imagine at that point, they could have a tug bring Starship to Larry Ellison's island where it could be erected as a monument.

 

[2daMoon]

Are you sure? I think he picked up the term 'Megapacktory' from Brian White (Futureaza).

I'm pretty sure. I think Brian has done several interviews with Bradford and has acknowledged this as well.

As I recall, Bradford coined it in a report he made about Lathrop production, after he counted megapacks leaving the site for 24 hours from his car while parked on the street.

Edit: Found some evidence of it in a quick search...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651984607443656704

 

[Artful Dodger]

The only counter-argument toward bio-fuel that I can think of seems to be a really long-shot / low probability: I remember reading articles, probably 15-20 years ago, about using "genetically engineered algae"

C3 photosythesis is 2% efficient. Currently available solar panels are 20% efficient. That means you need 10x the land to grow algae to get the same amount of energy from solar panels.

Algae is not even close to competitive with solar, but it is a distraction which is all big carbon needs to create doubt/delay with the PR wars. And every time people repeat their nonsence claims without critical review they win a little bit more time for their 'stranded assets': carbon.

 

[2daMoon]

I did the exact same thing - trade-in estimate in February. My experience is identical (except, I think I've had 5 different contacts including a couple phone calls).

New wrinkle, today they offered me 5000 free miles of Supercharging in addition to FSD transfer.

I've never been so aggressively sold-to by Tesla.

Have you considered suing them for such harrassment?

/S

 

[SmokyPeat]

Isn't YTD 2023 about the same as YTD 2024? I.e. accounting for CNY in both years.

It may be. I was referring to just the Feb. Shanghai numbers in '23 and '24. The entire 8 day new year closure at Giga Shanghai occured in Jan. in '23, whereas the entire closure was in Feb. this year.

 

[Tony73]

The only question that matters in this forum is if that polarization is impacting sales negatively or if it's impacting Tesla as a company in regards to policies or business moves.

There's speculation to both from both sides, but thus far no one has shown anything of substance of finite proof that he's bad for the company.

There is almost no one on this forum claiming Elon is on balance bad for Tesla. At the end of the day, he is still one of the most talented business leaders of the last half century.

I do think the people who claim that we don’t know if his behavior on Twitter is adversely affecting the company are missing the point.
No one thinks the CEO of a major consumer facing public company should be acting the way he is on Twitter.
No one ever refused to buy a car because the CEO of the car company keeps his personal politics to himself. Most people on this forum would not be heartbroken if Musk decided to tone it down. I am guessing none of us is hoping he becomes even more outspoken and provocative.

There is a lot of anecdotal evidence that Elon’s behavior has tainted the Tesla brand. I personally have never heard any anecdotal evidence that his Twitter antics have caused anyone who was not already going to buy a Tesla to buy one. The anecdotes seem to flow in one direction.
Lastly, anecdotes are meaningful when they relate to something that should never happen. The CEO’s behavior should never be part of any car buyer’s consideration.

 

[uscbucsfan]

There is almost no one on this forum claiming Elon is on balance bad for Tesla. At the end of the day, he is still one of the most talented business leaders of the last half century.

I do think the people who claim that we don’t know if his behavior on Twitter is adversely affecting the company are missing the point.
No one thinks the CEO of a major consumer facing public company should be acting the way he is on Twitter.
No one ever refused to buy a car because the CEO of the car company keeps his personal politics to himself. Most people on this forum would not be heartbroken if Musk decided to tone it down. I am guessing none of us is hoping he becomes even more outspoken and provocative.

There is a lot of anecdotal evidence that Elon’s behavior has tainted the Tesla brand. I personally have never heard any anecdotal evidence that his Twitter antics have caused anyone who was not already going to buy a Tesla to buy one. The anecdotes seem to flow in one direction.
Lastly, anecdotes are meaningful when they relate to something that should never happen. The CEO’s behavior should never be part of any car buyer’s consideration.

I've heard plenty of people that have said, "If I were going to buy an EV, it would be a Tesla because of Elon" who were on the right.

Overall that means nothing IMO.

 

[EXOTIC1]

Owning the stock for the last nine years just gives me a chuckle with any news. If the news is slightly bad, this struck drops $10-$15 or more. If news is great goes up $1 lol
Opening up the charging network for Tesla, billions of dollars incoming yet stock drops $15 on China month news
Things that make you……. Hmm………

 

[heltok]

I think just general negativity on EV's especially in China. EV sales down and I believe the Chinese brands have lowered prices putting more pressure on prices.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764727864186827086

if only BYD would try doing ads and their CEO would shut up…

 

[SO16]

Six years ago, Elon’s pay package was to get Tesla to certain production and 650B market cap in 10 years. Repeat, in TEN years. Practically everyone thought that was impossible and that Elon was crazy to accept that package. If we didn’t have the massive overshoot a few years ago, we’d all be ecstatic today.

I don’t know about you all but 6 years ago, I never would have guessed the SP would be even at today’s level. I try to remind myself of this on bad days.

Edit: Perspective with this video:

 

[DarkandStormy]

It may be. I was referring to just the Feb. Shanghai numbers in '23 and '24. The entire 8 day new year closure at Giga Shanghai occured in Jan. in '23, whereas the entire closure was in Feb. this year.

Right...which is why comparing YTD (Jan + Feb) is a much more accurate picture.

Not much growth there.

 

[Linkmeup]

Six years ago, Elon’s pay package was to get Tesla to certain production and 650B market cap in 10 years. Repeat, in TEN years. Practically everyone thought that was impossible and that Elon was crazy to accept that package. If we didn’t have the massive overshoot a few years ago, we’d all be ecstatic today.

I don’t know about you all but 6 years ago, I never would have guessed the SP would be even at today’s level. I try to remind myself of this on bad days.

Edit: Perspective with this video:

Last Q of 2018 earnings report:

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA_Update_Letter_2018-4Q

$6.3B quarterly revenue. Run-rate of $25.2B

Last Q? $25.1B quarterly revenue. Run-rate of $100.4B.

They did that with ~49k employees. This most recent quarter? ~140k employees. In essence, they went from generating $128,571.4 per FTE to $179,285.7 per FTE (140% labor productivity $$ performance in 5 years) and 4x'd their revenue during this performance plan phase of the company's lifespan.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Right...which is why comparing YTD (Jan + Feb) is a much more accurate picture.

Not much growth there.

Hard to say definitively unless you know the inventory situation.

 

[Stretch2727]

More on the letter writing campaign Alexandra is coordinating.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764425180116660320

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Insurance ends 2023 with nearly $500M in written premiums

Tesla Insurance ended 2023 with $497 million in written premiums.

coverager.com

Written premium is an accounting term in the insurance industry used to describe the total amount that customers are required to pay for insurance coverage on policies issued by a company during a specific period of time

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla Insurance ends 2023 with nearly $500M in written premiums

Tesla Insurance ended 2023 with $497 million in written premiums.

coverager.com

Written premium is an accounting term in the insurance industry used to describe the total amount that customers are required to pay for insurance coverage on policies issued by a company during a specific period of time

Note from the same link:

In terms of underwriting performance, Tesla Property & Casualty and Tesla General Insurance reported a combined underwriting loss of $30 million in 2023

 

[EQC_]

Right...which is why comparing YTD (Jan + Feb) is a much more accurate picture.

Not much growth there.

There will always be some way to play picksy-choosy with which facts are supposedly important to make things look bad. There will always be a factory to look at in isolation and claim production or demand is down. There will always be an isolated market with lower deliveries where somebody will claim "demand issues". There will always be a day or a week or a month where there appears to be some problem if you look at things the right way. There will always be some price drop that can be talked about in the news, while the journalists ignore the huge price increases a year or two prior as though they aren't part of the same equation.

Even though we are all so focused on Tesla, there will also always be more variables and facts that we don't or can't know...so it will almost always be folly to look at a few isolated numbers and jump to conclusions. KNOWING or presenting the numbers is fine...it helps to paint *part* of the picture. But claiming evidence of a problem based on a few isolated numbers, and pushing that as a new truth, seems questionable at best.

Spoiler: Thoughts on what we know and don't know about Shanghai production/deliveries

In this case:
I think we know that Tesla Shanghai takes in battery cells (2170's) from some suppliers and makes their own battery packs.
I think we know that Tesla Shanghai also takes complete or mostly-complete LFP battery packs from suppliers.
Tesla Shanghai uses both sources to build cars in Shanghai.
I believe Tesla also ships some completed battery packs from China to Giga Berlin to be assembled into cars built in Germany.
I believe Tesla has some level of battery cell and/or battery pack production at Giga Berlin, but I have no idea of the numbers.
We also know there were some disruptions to shipping to Germany...but after that, production at Giga Berlin seems to have increased.
We also know there was some "Chinese New Year" celebrations and associated factory downtime in China
I think we also know that sometimes GigaShanghai ships completed cars to Canada, and sometimes GigaShanghai ships battery packs to Fremont.

But, we don't necessarily know if EVERY part of Giga Shanghai and those supplier factories were shut down, or for how long every relevant factory (or part of a factory) may have been shut down.

Likewise, we don't know if Tesla decided to prioritize, for example, shipping more battery packs from China to Berlin or Fremont, instead of using those packs to build finished cars at Giga Shanghai (possibly tied to Lunar New Year celebrations...or possibly for some other reason we don't know).

We also don't know if Tesla may have decided to shift the ratios of which cars from which factories ship to which countries.

There are probably many, MANY other variables we don't know, or haven't even thought about. We have seen it for a decade now, when "analysts" will pinpoint a few numbers to point out some problem. I still remember when analysts used to scream about "Deliveries way down QonQ!" after the first month of almost every quarter...but we all knew it was just Tesla's quarterly delivery wave starting over...and Tesla's deliveries continued to go up quarter after quarter. Again, the isolated numbes are useful as part of a picture...but not useful for drawing larger conclusions about a bigger picture by guessing about the rest of the facts that we don't know.