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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
So TSLA shareholders suffer with no buybacks because the board was incompetent and stacked with relatives and friends. Another reason not to give Elon more power
Yes! And that will be years away. Please let's keep the FSD discussion on it's own threads. Day after day we post here about FSD/robotaxi -jabbering about SAAS billing and such- as if will be ready next week. Truth is it's going to be "just arond the corner" for a very, very long time yet, just like Nuclear fusion and a cure for paralysis.
Now it's just a flawed toy I like to play with; when you can take a nap for hundreds of miles with zero disengagements, THEN it will boost TSLA and how we sell it will matter, not sooner.
A board that holds onto their cash in preparation for a possible downturn / recession is incompetent nowadays?
Weird.
as opposed to hope and wishes.
cliff harris
Member
NO.
Geofencing is RIDICULOUS. What is the benefit of geofencing? That you can use really HD maps? Great, they are absolutely awesome for the 12 milliseconds after your HD map was generated. After that, anything could happen. There could be an accident, a tree could fall, a deer walks into the road, there is a crime scene and police directing traffic. Anything.
Tesla quite rightly, do not do geofencing. Its the sort of solution that 'sounds good' to people who don't understand how neural-nets are working. This is why cruise and waymo do it, because it looks good in a pitch deck to middle aged execs who have never written a line of code in their life.
Its also why geofencing gets laughed out of the room at Tesla. Elon is a coder, he understands machine learning, he knows geofencing is dumb.
Krugerrand
Meow
Spoken like every person who ever said EVs won’t work because you can’t charge it as fast as you can fill your gas car.
You’ve just fallen into human psychology that if something new isn’t 100x better than current choices and can’t fit every single use case, then it won’t work.
As someone who has had beta AND travelled long distance in their EV AND sat in mind numbing traffic AND has parents with mobility issues, I assure you that not being able to nap isn’t even close to the criteria needed for a high level of adoption.
No. YOU perhaps need that. A lot of other people do not and even more people who think they need that, again they do not. They’re talking from a place of ignorance. They’re talking from a place I just described. They’re talking from a place where CT can’t work or be popular because you can’t tow 10 ton 500 miles uphill in a blizzard on a single charge.
BS
Those look like completed buildings. They're probably leasing (or buying) buildings for things that don't require specialized construction so that they can get it going faster. That 1.5 year process of building a building is a long time to wait when you're ready to go now on something.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
FTFY. Please, tell the group the last time you worked for 6 years without pay? TIA.
Please also inform the group of any other Fortune 500 Company that has had the kind of results that Tesla did from 2018 to 2023. Elon is the only person that didn't benefit from his 2018 CEO Comp plan (now including predatory law firms, and ungrateful shareholders).
Your agenda is misguided, as is your take. In fact, if you feel this strongly, please give back your take. It's the right thing to do, and you're clearly only motivated by 'rights'.
It will be decades before Tesla or anyone else offers full autonomy in private vehicles.
Whatever the capabilities of FSD, a privately owned Tesla will require a licensed driver in the driver seat paying attention for a very long time
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I saw an estimate that said 7% in the U.S. and less than 1% everywhere else.
However Tesla is still not able to full recognize the revenue.
Geofencing doesn't need to mean relying on stuff like HD maps, but it can mean limiting to certain geographies where there may be more training data and certain climates absent of risks that can exist elsewhere.
If the goal is to wait until the moment everything is mastered and risk is fully mitigated even in harsh winter conditions and such, it will indeed likely be a very very long time until this happens if it ever happens. There are good reasons robotaxis currently operate only in certain areas.
And it's unclear if that even makes sense, because it's questionable whether robotaxis will be used that much outside of very dense metro areas or on things like long hauls especially if the intent is a ridesharing type setup -- you don't want someone taking your vehicle out and going on a 6hr drive to a different state when you need it to drive home after work.
Tesla’s robotaxi service when it does arrive will be geofenced, If only for logistical reasons. FSD should be able to go anywhere when it comes out of beta but it will require a driver in the vehicle.
FSD is already doing what I call "conditional fencing". If the weather is bad, it either partially or fully turns off. We tend to think of geofencing as "anything in this contiguous shape area", but I feel like the smartest geofencing will actually be "conditional fencing". So real full self driving if:
- weather is clear enough for the cameras
- road is one that is well understood
- conditions look like what we expect them to look like (ie: construction crews haven't showed up and ripped up the road)
... and for anything else it alerts you and steps down to driver participation. That way it can handle point to point in a city so long as it stays on good roads, but won't take that bizarre mountain road that turns into a dirt road despite being on the map.
if they take that attitude, I think they can do level 4 for real much much sooner because it doesn't demand perfection in all unanticipated situations in order to achieve, but still uses the methodology as Tesla has designed it.
- weather is clear enough for the cameras
- road is one that is well understood
- conditions look like what we expect them to look like (ie: construction crews haven't showed up and ripped up the road)
... and for anything else it alerts you and steps down to driver participation. That way it can handle point to point in a city so long as it stays on good roads, but won't take that bizarre mountain road that turns into a dirt road despite being on the map.
if they take that attitude, I think they can do level 4 for real much much sooner because it doesn't demand perfection in all unanticipated situations in order to achieve, but still uses the methodology as Tesla has designed it.
Imagine the value of FSD at 10 million vehicles paying $100 per month.
That is $12 billion a year in pure profit.
You probably need to deploy half a million robotaxis to make $12 billion profit.
The FSD path is far easier. It only requires L3 and is far easier to roll out. Robotaxis on that scale are a long way off.
That is $12 billion a year in pure profit.
You probably need to deploy half a million robotaxis to make $12 billion profit.
The FSD path is far easier. It only requires L3 and is far easier to roll out. Robotaxis on that scale are a long way off.
I think they are actively trying to make Tesla about more than just Elon
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Though I have nothing to base it on, when first this news came out I was hoping the facility might be the next U.S. Megapacktory.
Having one on the West coast, another in Texas, and then one on the East coast would certainly contribute to accelerating the transition, given adequate battery supply to support the output.
Do we really know what they are working on? I wouldn't be surprised if they have a few tricks up their sleeve that will surprise us.
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