Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[inconel]

• Anybody who says something positive about Elon or Tesla or any of the vehicles is, apparently, hoping for adult relations with Elon

Not limited to people who say positive things about Elon. Many of the Elon haters are also dreaming of it, I have heard them say "F**k Elon"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let the Disagrees flow in as once again the stock did exactly what I predicted it would do.

Lol, what a pant load! Where did you predict it would Close today at 5 cents below the tallest Call wall? (rhetorical -- don't bother)

 

[dl003]

Only if Elon had access to a large media platform to teach the public about the benefits of a Tesla, how incredible the Cybertruck is and why the Model Y is the best mass market car in the world.

An investor can dream.

just fyi, people tend not to trust someone who likes to talk their own book. It would look desperate, even, that a CEO of a company tried to sell what his company made on his personal page. Trevor Milton much? They have numerous Tesla profiles for that.

 

[dl003]

Lol, what a pant load! Where did you predict it would Close today at 5 cents below the tallest Call wall? (rhetorical -- don't bother)

lol I predicted the stock would pull back and consolidate starting today.
Meanwhile, this was you

TSLA looking strong in the early Pre-Market: (4x QQQ macros)

Tesla Inc TSLA:NASDAQ​

RT Quote | Last NASDAQ LS, VOL From CTA | USD​

After Hours: Last | 4:25 AM EST​

$204.50 +4.05 (+2.02%)​

Volume 284,794​

amateur hour

 

[Artful Dodger]

I read that is you can have a single PW3, and then add up to 40.5kWh of additional battery packs to it. (Not adding any additional inverter capacity.)

Interesting. Have you done the math how this might integrate with the Cybertruck Range Extender pack? The solar charge at home would be a nice bonus feature.

 

[Atomsla]

The future of the only car factory in the Netherlands is uncertain at best:

Doodse stilte in de hal, laatste autofabriek van Nederland staat stil

De eigenaar van VDL Nedcar hoopt nog altijd op een nieuwe opdrachtgever, maar niemand weet of de band ooit nog gaat lopen.

nos-nl.translate.goog

Dead silence in the hall, the last car factory in the Netherlands stands still


Nik Wouters

economics reporter

From the production of the DAF 33, the Volvo 343, the Mitsubishi Colt and the Mini to an unprecedentedly quiet factory hall. After almost 60 years, the assembly line at the only car factory in the Netherlands comes to a standstill.

VDL Nedcar in Born, opened in 1968, will stop production this week and no one knows for how long. The last client, BMW, had the Mini built there, but canceled the contract and a new client has not been found.

That means work at the factory is largely over after nearly 6 million cars have been built. Nearly 4,000 people will lose their jobs, some of whom have been working there for more than thirty years.

Smart poker
VDL Nedcar employees are used to uncertain times. The survival of the factory has been at stake before, but the future has never been as bleak as it is now.

In 1968, DAF opened the factory for the car of the future. Cars were assembled with a gearbox, 'the clever stick'. The factory was mainly intended to provide employment to people who had worked in the coal mines in Limburg.

Promotional film Daf 46Promotional film Daf 46
Working on an assembly line was too much of a change for many former miners. They felt like they had lost their freedom and felt rushed by the constant conveyor belt. Hundreds of cars had to be assembled every day.

"I ended up in the factory like that, I had never seen the inside of a factory before," said one of the early employees. "I was a bit disappointed at first, but it is better for my health."

Many employees left again. In an episode of the history program Andere Tijden, a number of people explain why the assembly line could not get used.

The car factory decided to bring other employees, from Morocco, for example, to the Netherlands.

The factory was transferred from DAF to Volvo, and then to the Japanese Mitsubishi. Nedcar expanded and started producing different brands and models on one production line. At its peak, it employed about 9,000 people. In the 1990s, the Dutch State was co-owner for a while.

Contact BMW
The greatest uncertainty was in 2010, when Mitsubishi announced it would scale back production. Jobs were in danger of disappearing

Then Minister of Economic Affairs Verhagen and Prime Minister Rutte helped find a new client. "Mark Rutte had contact with the president of BMW and it is always good to have those contacts," said Wim van der Leegte, the then boss of VDL. He died late last year.

Entrepreneur Van der Leegte took over the factory in 2013, changed the name to VDL Nedcar and, with some help from the cabinet, signed a contract with BMW to produce cars for many years.

The future seemed assured, as was said at the factory's 50th anniversary.

VDL Nedcar 50 years 003 1080pVDL Nedcar 50 years 003 1080p
But in 2020, BMW canceled the contract. The Munich company wants to focus more on the construction of electric cars and also wants to save costs due to uncertainty about the future of the car market.

At that moment the clock started ticking again. VDL Nedcar was given three years to find a new client before BMW stopped production in Born completely.

Plans were made to expand the factory. Despite protests, a nature reserve, the Sterrebos, was partly cleared for the new construction.

Unions supported that cap. "It's about your livelihood, your future and the future of this beautiful car factory," union officials said at meetings with staff.

But the new factory hall has not been built, although VDL Nedcar is still keeping that option open. Most of the staff have now left. Last year, almost 4,000 people still worked at the car factory in Born, after this month there are still just under 400 left.

The UWV benefits agency expects that it will not be easy for everyone to find work again. Of the first group that had to leave at the end of last year, about half have a new job.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Megapack Connected! (25:03) | 16 Feb 2024 Giga Texas Update | Joe Tegtmeyer

 

[Puma2020]

Yup! Gary is the official benchmark, or, leaves the benchmark behind as he moves along, or, something like that.

Nonetheless, I like your use of milliGarys and support your efforts for getting this established as the accepted unit of measure for all boring operational velocities.

NO, NO, NO
Everyone (at least from the Boston area) knows that the official measurement is a SMOOT.

Smoot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DragonWatch]

Forward Observing

Last Saturday we did a test drive of a new MX (Xena III) want-a-B. Light years improved from 2019. Our first X (2017) was delivered to our garage while we were in California visiting Sandy’s parents. I joked about being the last delivery of the first quarter (2017) and, and the stock price took off after that ~ truly, not because of me.

Back to last Saturday (1000) appointment. The sales rep gave us about as much time as he could before shooing us out for the test drive. Simply put, the 2024 model is light years beyond our 2019. Less hardware on steering column and more touch screen action. Once we returned, the sales person really did not have time for us. So the girl I was trying to impress ~ been trying to impress her for just over fifty years, poked around a Model Y, even though our daughter has one we forced them to buy. Some other guy was checking out the Y too, therefore, I was in the back seat as usual ~ very comfortable by the way. Anyway the guy was going on and on about upgrading his Y to stay up with the technology, kind of like us. FYI ~ this was following the price announcement time of price increase is $1K ~ just sayin’. The place was very busy is what I am saying!

We placed the order Sunday morning as most religiously active TSLA investors would be.

Cheers

 

[hobbes]

About the new USD 25.000 Tesla car:
It would certainly amaze me if Tesla would not think out of the box and hasn’t been looking at completely different/new materials.
Tesla deciding: we’ll make it from steel, of course?
That just isn’t Tesla.

The hard part, however, is not the strength of (composite?) new materials, but the durability (aging), reusability and long time exposure to things like the sun.
Finite element analysis will take care of the majority of strength questions.
I am very curious what materials Tesla will use for this new car!

Boring steel IMHO. After all, the main focus is affordability here. Tesla started with aluminum bodies for the S, and then moved to steel. New-tech halo car is the Cybertruck, does not mae so much sense for a mass market car where a quick ramp is much more critical. BMW tried composite on the i3 and IIRC it proved to be too expensive in the end. Repairability plays a role, too.

 

[hobbes]

The rust rumour is absolutely ridiculous. Are there rusty Starships standing in the Rocket Garden? (Russell Brand excepted) Are there rusty DeLoreans driving around? Who has seen any rust on a DeLorean? Has anyone made a video about rust on a 40yr-old DeLorean stainless steel body?

The rust rumour is of course, perfect material for FUDsters trying to throw shade on the Cybertruck, and for those who want to read shade thrown on the Cybertruck - because they won't actually follow up or look for real evidence after reading the articles. But... unlike real rust, the rust rumour will fade away over time.

Rust confirmed but a non issue:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758613776931119217

 

[Artful Dodger]

James from InvestAnswers puts TLSA fair value at $517 by the end of 2025: (via Cyberbulls)

• $249 for Auto
• $154 for Megapack
• $75 for FSD
• $24 for Autobidder
• others

The big "other" is Optimus Bot, which James has at just 1.7% of TSLA value by end of 2025, but ballooning dramatically over the next 2 years. As always, timing is uncertain.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[unk45]

Yes, confirmed - I'm in the process of getting Tesla Solar Panels. Also, got confirmation that all solar customers (with installations starting) in 2024 get Powerwall 3.

I asked, specifically, if we're ever going to see a residential heat pump from Tesla btw...just got uncomfortable laughter back from the site surveyor saying he had no idea lol

I wonder how much it would matter now since a huge variety of residential heat pumps (split, whole house, a/c+Heat, A/c +hot water, air, water, geothermal, etc) are available and rapidly improving.

Where I am Fujitsu alone has five variants of split, air, A/C +hot water all for immediate delivery, all plug replaceable with existing Fujitsu split a/c only needed change is hot water/heated pool connections. I cannot count all the others from multiple countries with many variants.

Were i to have Tesla Powerwalls and heat pump available I'd be strongly inclined to buy them, even if more expensive. But...they are not.

The opportunity globally for Tesla Energy, including heat pump, would be huge, albeit difficult to quantify as competition proliferates. Now that Huawei has entered residential solar and HVAC markets in many countries in addition to their commercial/utility level products we can expect even more virulent competition, and probably price competition beyond the already amazing solar panel/power controller/inverter competition.

All this is good for the world and for The Mission, but for TSLA there si serious incentive to grow much more readily and manufacture, especially TE, more widely.

Every time some fool argues that Tesla is demand limited and price reductions are inevitably margin limiting I cringe. These 'pundits' are truly clueless about the worldwide transitions to sustainable energy. In part that is because much of the progress is supporting new growth more than it is replacement, so the data seem less significant. Part of it is ignorance. Part of it is geocentric or ethnocentric bias. Together those all make it easy to dismiss what are sometimes politically motivated ignorant of major competitors such as Huawei in some countries and even Tesla in some circles even in the US.

When we then consider the astounding level of FUD and the restless onslaught of the classic opponents of renewables it becomes even more obvious how myopic many of us, even here on TMC can be. It is very difficult to ignore the many attacks on both Tesla and the CEO, especially when the subject of this ire begin to react in hostility.

It is highly desirable to look as dispassionately as possible at the world demand for BEV of every type and class. Even more it is desirable to look dispassionately at global demand for every single part of energy generation, storage and distribution everywhere! Even grid services are in massive demand, just as much as are speakers to help intermediate those flections in grid sources and uses. The grids themselves are obsolescent to obsolete is all the North America all of Europe and virtually everywhere else. Right now the only country that is mobilizing aggressively for all this is China.

In much of the world politicians and business people bemoan Chinese dominance. Rather than compete, the response is to restrict the competitors. Were the non-Chinese to aggressively develop more efficient high voltage grids, better distributed load management and all the rest the world would be better off.

Tesla, let us remember, talked about all this as long ago as 2011, when J B Straubel talking over and over about the need and Elon Musk echoed that with actual deliveries, most notable the Hornsdale Power Reserve. Tesla Energy, by developing and deploying the Autobidder, set off the present day rush to grid stability and energy source variations.

So, for all of us, please stop this idiotic and absurd notion of demand-limited. That is untrue! It is true that Tesla has supply and destination imbalances, both driven by distribution narrowness (even in California!) and logistics/production narrowness. The future of Tesla si unquestionably more diverse in product lines production and distribution.

In the meantime, every time we look at a drone video from China, Germany or the US we see continuous repaid expansion and evolution. Each time we examine a Tesla product we see the same rapid evolution.
Costs per unit keep going down while quality and features rise. From time to time something goes awry so there si some type of temporary setback in, for example, Autopilot/FSD.windshiled wipers. Even, sometimes, Tesla realizes they cannot do everything themselves so buy, say, batteries/cells from everyone competent, solar panels from those who do then better/cheaper.

I look at all that and am amazed and redouble on HODL. In the meantime, I'll take delivery on my fourth new Tesla car next week.

Without question I'm quite impressed with BYD, too, even though none of their vehicles appeal to me. OTOH, on my street alone there are already BYD cars, mostly Dolphins. a neighbor just replaced a BMW with one of those. That, I don't really understand, but...it seems certain that I'll become a stationary storage customer of BYD next month. That one is sad; I'd pay a serious premium for Tesla Powerwalls. Even my installer laments that Powerwalls are not here in Brazil, he wants them for his own projects too.

When people are making suboptimal choices because they cannot buy Tesla how can any rational person really think they are demand-limited?

HODL and beg for more factories in more countries to supply enormous pent-up demand where no official Tesla has gone before, although lots of TSLA has been going enthusiastically.

 

[unk45]

The future of the only car factory in the Netherlands is uncertain at best:

Doodse stilte in de hal, laatste autofabriek van Nederland staat stil

De eigenaar van VDL Nedcar hoopt nog altijd op een nieuwe opdrachtgever, maar niemand weet of de band ooit nog gaat lopen.

nos-nl.translate.goog

This is sad. The weirdest car i ever owned was a 1963 Daffodil (later called DAF33). I bought it with 500 miles when the owner sold it for scrap when he could not find replacement bands. I discovered that International Harvester combine bands were identical in size to I paid US3 for a pair of them to put on the Daffidil I had just bought for US$300. In ran impeccably, if slowly, until I sold it in New York for $1000 a year later. Until my first Tesla that may have been my single most satisfying car purchase. It's a close call, I have had quite a few very, very odd vehicles.

FWIW, the very first Tesla factory in Menlo Park was torn down too, The could have become a great museum for The Roadster.

 

[Knightshade]

It can be prompted to do lane changes and other things as shown in the video above. It's generating an entire video world full of imaginary people, clothing, streets, signs, lighting, etc. It's a different use case, different dataset and scale/quality but basically the same kind of task.

I think you're misunderstanding what the middle video means by "we can't do that"

Generating the next frame of existing video is NOT new-- in fact your second video specifically mentions it's easy- Even consumer video cards do AI generated frames today if you give them the prior frames to start from.

Anyway- this is the same "kind" of task in the sense that they both generate frames, but one is doing so from a short text prompt and one is doing so from existing real world video

In Ashoks demo they're following a van- that already exists in the real world video. And driving down a road that already exists in the real world and is mapped in the real world, and which rarely had any significant # of moving objects besides the ego and the van it was following- even some of the later demo clips didn't have a bunch of people all walking different directions with different looks, etc... and it doesn't have to imagine all that from a couple text sentences, create them to be area-accurate from scratch, and imagine how they move, etc...

So no, Tesla was not doing 7 months ago what Sora was doing. It was doing a significantly different (still important and useful!) thing

If you want to keep going on this however this would be the place:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Webeevdrivers]

There's no performance version of the highland refresh (not yet anyway)-- not overseas where it launched months earlier, and now not in the US either.

Tesla is in a weird spot on pricing there too... the LR AWD is $47,490 right now, with no IRA tax credit. The highest they could price a Performance 3 and DO get the credit is $54,999.... which after credit would be only $9 more than the non-performance one.

Informative. Thank you.

 

[2daMoon]

NO, NO, NO
Everyone (at least from the Boston area) knows that the official measurement is a SMOOT.

Smoot - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Apples and Orangutans.

The Smoot is a measure of distance and a Gary is a measure of velocity.

Though there certainly could be a Gary calibrated in Smoots rather than miles/meters/feet per hour.

 

[Singuy]

I think you're misunderstanding what the middle video means by "we can't do that"

Generating the next frame of existing video is NOT new-- in fact your second video specifically mentions it's easy- Even consumer video cards do AI generated frames today if you give them the prior frames to start from.

Anyway- this is the same "kind" of task in the sense that they both generate frames, but one is doing so from a short text prompt and one is doing so from existing real world video

In Ashoks demo they're following a van- that already exists in the real world video. And driving down a road that already exists in the real world and is mapped in the real world, and which rarely had any significant # of moving objects besides the ego and the van it was following- even some of the later demo clips didn't have a bunch of people all walking different directions with different looks, etc... and it doesn't have to imagine all that from a couple text sentences, create them to be area-accurate from scratch, and imagine how they move, etc...

So no, Tesla was not doing 7 months ago what Sora was doing. It was doing a significantly different (still important and useful!) thing

If you want to keep going on this however this would be the place:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Seems like the video shown in Tesla is entirely self generated. In fact he said they didn't even ask the system to do 3d, it just did it by default. And when he mentions video from the past, I don't think he means a frame from the past, asking the system to generate a new frame for the future. I think he means using lots of video samples to show the system what driving looks like during training so it can self generate 100% what driving looks like much like Sora.

Also we don't know if this was text based or not because Tesla didn't explain what they mean by "we asked the system to..". Was this ask text based? Who knows.

 

[Knightshade]

Seems like the video shown in Tesla is entirely self generated.

It's not. Ashok clearly tells you it's not.

And when he mentions video from the past, I don't think he means a frame from the past, asking the system to generate a new frame for the future. I think he means using lots of video samples to show the system what driving looks like during training so it can self generate 100% what driving looks like much like Sora.

Again Ashok clearly tells you otherwise

given the past video the network predicts some samples from the future, hopefully the most likely sample

It's predicting the future frames of past, existing, video- that's literally what he's saying there

Also we don't know if this was text based or not because Tesla didn't explain what they mean by "we asked the system to..". Was this ask text based? Who knows.

Again this is simply not true based on the actual words in the video. He gives examples of what prompts you could use and cites ONLY video and still-frame pictures- because the model is just predicting future RGB values- he says those exact words. Meaning you have to START with PRESENT RGB values- not a text prompt.


And again discussion on this is WAY out of investor scope and belongs here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[FireMedic]

Brooks over at Dragtimes YouTube channel got his hands on a cybertruck. I like his style; not overly dramatic.

My question is, how long until it gets at least autopilot.

I’ve come to be quite a snob about not driving without Autopilot or FSD.