Day 05: Five golden rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Part of
12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023
Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express
major themes as short-hand bullet points, or I will run out of
Yule before the
tide comes back). Here's the series so far:
Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Intro to Part 5: Semi Breaks Physiks
Semi is intended to lead the way, showing that EVs trucks can displace diesel for transportation of goods in the U.S.A. (and the World). Thus, Semi needed to combine exceptional range and hauling capabilities, low cost of operation and maintenance, making it the obvious choice for Fleet Managers (based on it's economics).
1. The Reveal Event: Fremont, Nov 2017
- Elon revealed the Tesla Semi at event held in Fremont, CA on Nov 16, 2017
- Elon explained the outsided contribution to emissions by diesel trucks vs the fleet
- Semi debuted w. impressive specs: 500+ miles range at full load, <2KWh/mi efficiency
- Tesla bolstered those claims with $0.07/KWh solar, shatter-proof glass, and 'platooning'
- One claim required Investors do some basic physiks (which Daimler Trucks CEO quickly denied)
- "So what does Tesla Semi weigh?" - well, Tesla only told us indirectly, as follows:
- Acceleration 0-60 mph in 20 s fully loaded (80K lbs) and 5 s unloaded
- Sir Isaac Newton told us F = MA so some basic maths say Semi weighs ~20K lbs
- Elon later said Semi specs did not depend upon some miracle battery and were achievable with existing Panasonic 2170 cells (Tesla demonstrated 500mi loaded range in a Dec 01, 2022 video)
- Noted short-seller Bill Gates also famously denied Semi's abilities w/o showing his maths:
Lesson 1: Build those vehicles which matter most for the Mission
Lesson 2: Do the math; Make an estimate; Create a Prototype (take your time to get it right)
2. Semi Delivery Launch Partner: PepsiCo - Modesto, California -
"That's what I like"
- Tesla Semi project remained on the back-burner throughtout the Model 3 ramp, and was further delayed by suppliers (notably Panasonic slow expansion of battery cell production, but also by other industry suppliers for things as mundane as body parts)
- After Battery Day on Sep 22, 2020, Elon rightly made 4680 cells the production priority. Elon's mantra was 'it is pointless to introduce a new product when you don't have the parts to build it'
- Throughout these diversions, Tesla's partner for the Semi roll-out was PepsiCo/Fritolay in Modesto, CA. PepsiCo would recieve the 1st 30-odd Semis built from a prototype line near Giga Nevada (w.Panasonic 2170s), and also charging infrastructure at their CA locations
- Tesla is gaining real-world experience with Semi through this partnership, with an impressive public showing in the Sep 2023 "Run On Less" challenge for electric trucks
Lesson 3: Dance with the one what brung ya'.
3. Giga Nevada: "
The Big Show"
- The Semi business model requires Tesla to become their own battery cell supplier
- The scale: 1,000KWh/Semi for 100K Semis per year is ~100 GWh/yr of cells, or ~4x what Panasonic produces currently at Giga Nevada (which largely goes to Model 3/Y)
- Semi ramp is a work in progress, but we already have a preview of the plot:
- Tesla has announced $3B plans to build the final production line for Semi at Giga Nevada
- this will include 4-or-5 manufacturing lines for 4680 cells, according to Elon
- that's enough cells for Semi (and likely enough for Tesla Optimus Bot, too)
Lesson 4: If you build it, they will come
Overall, Tesla became a much different and more mature company from the time of the Semi reveal to now.
TLSA Market Cap has soared and swooned, multiple times. Elon continues to guide his ship, allocating his time to the projects that have the most impact on the Tesla Mission, and also on his broader goals.
This also meant that many relatively-late (formerly giddy) TSLA investors were propelled to higher highs and dragged thru lower lows. But as Elon has told us repeatedly, if you can not take volatility,
please sell TSLA stock and don't buy it.
Conclusion: Semi remains an ongoing project at the end of 2023, and is on the verge of greatness
Next: Expanding the TAM: Low-hanging fruit on the Electricity Grid
Tomorrow's Topic:
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel