Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GhostSkater]

I remember reading this same type of extrapolation logic for battery day and tesla 2030 deliveries with 25%+ margin lol.

I’m gonna save you the effort and say “no” because of (1) what Elon has said multiple times publicly preparing investors for a horrific margin, (2) clear, regular evidence of the 4680 cells not meeting battery day expectations so far, and (3) Tesla continued delays with the truck coming out (if you’ve been following Tesla for any reasonable amount of time you see it’s clear that whatever narrative reason Elon says for something doesn’t match up a lot with probable/actual factors). It wasn’t due to “unlimited demand” for model y, there’s clearly problems with the Cybertruck that happens when you announce a price before fleshing out manufacturing details.

I disagree. True, Cybertruck will be a margin hog while it ramps, same with 4680, but what matters is once it's going full steam ahead, it will be painful to get there, but the potential for cost savings is there, and thus bigger margins. But now all hangs on price, let see in a month

Last guidance we got for 4680s is that they were targeting 70$/kWh, with IRA credits this becomes 25$/kWh, you get how insane that is? While others are trying and failing to ramp factories on the US for one reason or another and likely paying over 100$/kWh? A Semi pack costing Tesla $22000, a Model Y $2000

We also know that hopefully next year the 4 original lines will be ramped up to close to full rate, close to 100 GWh, and if we assume the cost advantages are realized by then, that is 0.75B$ in savings compared if they would need to buy those at market prices, we also know that next year there will be at least another 4 of those lines being commissioned, so by the end 2025 that might ramp up to 1.5B$ in savings

On top of that, Battery Day plans were in a 6 year horizon, considering the Tesla Time (tm) and that so far they have in house made cells that are now on par with comercial alternatives from companies that have been doing that for decades, and with likely cost advantages pretty soon, it pretty damn amazing

 

[elasalle]

Cruise .... let's not forget what paid experts do and say

 

[UncaNed]

This is yet another misunderstanding. Trucks are higher margin in the US because they have much less actual manufacturing cost than do their cars. The large SUV (e.g. Suburban, Navigator, Escalade) and Pickup (Sierra Denali Ultimate, F-150 Limited, RAM Limited, etc.) all have gigantic margins precisely beaus they are cheap trucks at the core, with all sorts of gimmicky additions to appear luxurious. Those SUV and Pickup models are the same underneath. In fact they're made in the same factories on the same lines. BTW that is why the UAW struck Ford Kentucky Truck Plant (F-150, Navigator, Expedition) the produces nearly all Ford US profits. 'Higher utility' is a matter of market positioning, were utility to the selling basis they'd not have so much cheap 'luxury' fitments.

Tesla does not and hopefully will never, engage in such absurd cheap tricks. The Cybertruck, just as Model S and X, have higher priced variants, but they offer clearly structured tangible benefits. Tesla does offer trim options, most superfluously wheels (that offer reduced longevity, exposure to road hazards, and sexy looks) and color options. Those do increase the price while providing no economic benefit, so Tesla is not exactly 100% innocent, but everyone who buys that, including me, knows what we've done. (Guilty of buying Ludicrous for my P85D).

Of course, the cheap basic F150, and other equivalents do provide scale and do provide huge utilitarian credibility and function. Those (just as in the EU Pocket Rocket) generate volume at minimal profit while the high trim levels cary huge profits because they are built on the cheap base. Those who've working of internal OEM cost accounting understand this well. Cheap version absorb fixed costs, high end versions generate profit at modest incremental cost, so carry the line.

We at TMC really need to understand these things to avoid falling into FUD traps.

If customers want to buy cheap Cybertrucks at the core with all sorts of gimmicky additions to appear luxurious, then I want Tesla to tap that area of profit too.

Also, do we know in there will indeed be AC outlets for powering tools and camping stuff on the early Cybertrucks?

 

[Nocturnal]

This is yet another misunderstanding. Trucks are higher margin in the US because they have much less actual manufacturing cost than do their cars.

Don't forget their lower emissions requirements as well.

 

[unk45]

Don't forget their lower emissions requirements as well.

And fewer safety rules.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Also, do we know in there will indeed be AC outlets for powering tools and camping stuff on the early Cybertrucks?

In the RC units there aren't any in the Frunk and there is 1 single gang box in the bed. No one knows for sure what is in there.

 

[unk45]

Cruise .... let's not forget what paid experts do and say
View attachment 985190

FWIW I own both a Model S FSD and a Volvo SC40 Recharge with their ingenious solution. To see Tesla in that quadrant and solve up and to the right of Tesla is a tribute to the power of advertising revenue and paid promotion. OTOH, there really should be at least the ability to attempt to follow navigation guidance to rank well, shouldn't it?

 

[mongo]

We also know that hopefully next year the 4 original lines will be ramped up to close to full rate, close to 100 GWh,

Caveat, the original capacity target (20 GWh/ line) was based on all the Battery Day tech. 10 million cells in 4 months for one line with 100Wh/cell = 3GWh/yr * 4 lines = 12 GWh. 100 GWh requires an 8x improvement from current state. 80GWh around 6x.
I'm guessing they won't be updating chemistry in the near term.

 

[EVWatcher]

Cruise .... let's not forget what paid experts do and say
View attachment 985190

I’ve seen this chart now for years. Who made this? Can I short them? Or is it just some BS made by some magazine?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I’ve seen this chart now for years. Who made this? Can I short them? Or is it just some BS made by some magazine?

Guidehouse. They bought Navigant in 2019. (Forget what I wrote before about renaming).
It publishes a report each year.

Guidehouse is owned by Veritas, a venture capital group that owns a bunch of IT and data companies.

 

[2daMoon]

Also, do we know in there will indeed be AC outlets for powering tools and camping stuff on the early Cybertrucks?

At the reveal they said you can charge the Cyber ATV in the bed.

I seem to recall it being mentioned that 120 VAC and 240 VAC will be available. (or maybe it was 12 DC and 120 AC?)

 

[Ratanpara]

Perhaps outperformance of TSLA coming due to, Venmo FSD get suspended, Rebate in Texas for all Tesla vehicle, Honda & GM parternership fall apart.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I seem to recall it being mentioned that 120 VAC and 240 VAC will be available. (or maybe it was 12 DC and 120 AC?)

That's the rumor what is in the box in the bed. It doesn't appear, in the RCs, that there is anywhere for an air compressor.

 

[GhostSkater]

Caveat, the original capacity target (20 GWh/ line) was based on all the Battery Day tech. 10 million cells in 4 months for one line with 100Wh/cell = 3GWh/yr * 4 lines = 12 GWh. 100 GWh requires an 8x improvement from current state. 80GWh around 6x.
I'm guessing they won't be updating chemistry in the near term.

If I were to take a guess, I would say the Gen 3 lines that are now being installed on Kato Rd will be what the next 4 lines of Texas will use, and maybe they will start adding more bells and whistles to the cell, not just manufacturing improvements, Tesla Silicon in low % to start

 

[Nocturnal]

Guidehouse. They bought Navigant in 2019. (Forget what I wrote before about renaming).
It publishes a report each year.

Guidehouse is owned by Veritas, a venture capital group that owns a bunch of IT and data companies.

And not only have I never talked to anyone who actually read their report, the people behind this are just a couple of management consultants. It's not like it's a team of AI researchers who did these rankings. Any monkey in a suit with powerpoint could have done the same.

 

[Drumheller]

I see cars jumping around, disappear/re-appear, flipping vehicles. I recall this with Tesla FSD many years ago so the confidence of what is drawn on the screen is much much higher with Tesla. This is what I'd expect from fusing Vision with LIDAR data as they compete with one another over the ground truth.

Maybe a happy accident or a programmed Easter egg but it did amuse me back when Tesla's visualization would occasionally display an Audi (and I think BMW maybe, too) as a literal rubbish can. 🗑

 

[SOULPEDL]

Perhaps outperformance of TSLA coming due to, Venmo FSD get suspended, Rebate in Texas for all Tesla vehicle, Honda & GM parternership fall apart.

You mean Cruise FSD? By itself, nah. It's just the normal noise.

However regarding the Honda/GM breakup on EVs - that's interesting because Honda is an investor in Cruise. Lost trust perhaps. They were shooting for <$30K vehicle so there's also that BS as well.

"Honda is also an investor in Cruise, the driverless car operator that is a wholly owned subsidiary of GM. And GM and Honda co-designed the Cruise Origin, a purpose-built autonomous shuttle that is set to make its debut in the US next year — and Japan in 2026."

Edit: It seems the Cruise Origin (RoboTaxi with no steering) between GM and Honda are still the plan in 2024, but details are scarce.

 

[2daMoon]

That's the rumor what is in the box in the bed. It doesn't appear, in the RCs, that there is anywhere for an air compressor.

I'm thinking the air compressor may already be a part of the adjustable suspension. If so, all that is needed in the bed is a quick-connect to the system.

 

[uscbucsfan]

I'm thinking the air compressor may already be a part of the adjustable suspension. If so, all that is needed in the bed is a quick-connect to the system.

But in the RC units there's only a single gang box, with room for 2 plugs OR 1 plug and a quick-connect. I don't think they go with only 1 plug considering the request for both 120 and 240. We'll see, but in the RC units there's certainly not the options that Ford or Rivian has. That's fine, they need to keep cost down. Same with sail storage, ramp, etc missing in the RC units.

 

[Jim Holder]

Ala TeslaBot:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717158086119510463