Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

So on one side we have the Berlin Vin tracker saying Berlin has been steady at 5k/week for 2-3 months now and Tesla saying themselves that they’re hitting production goals (5,000/week) while REDUCING staff hours needed to do so back in July.

On the other hand, you have BI who is known for putting out hit pieces and lies.

Just to add some fun to it....Tesla just bounced off support and everyone and their mom knows the Cybertruck delivery catalyst is mere weeks away.

Gee I wonder why BI would be timed this "insider source" piece to come out right now? On a day when Powell speaks and Nvidia's earnings are going to massively impact the market?

 

[replicant]

1. Tesla's brand in this space demands a premium.

I so disagree. At least in Europe. Look at the value one get from a Tesla vs from an ICE of the same price (you should see what my friends, family and colleagues are buying and the price they pay). People would pay far more for a Tesla if the brand was strong enough.

 

[insaneoctane]

Do you know what it costs to replace a BMW engine? That’s not readily available either. In the same neighborhood.
check the threads. An out of warranty S85 is a tough sell. Even a car with 1 year left causes a lot of buyers to hesitate. Lots of conversations on TMC about current owners debating about keeping a car they want to keep or dumping it , all battery related.

Doesn't it make sense for Tesla to commit some resources to ensure battery replacement costs are reasonable for existing owners? Seems to me that unless this replacement issue is all but nonexistent, it becomes a thorn in resale values, confidence/perception of BEVs longterm, and is literally counter to the mission. Certainly ensuring that battery replacement at cost with focused resources dedicated to driving that actual cost down would be the right thing and in the spirit of what Elon has claimed he wants Tesla doing. Just seems that the growth mantra allows things like this to fall through the cracks.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Looking at this graph I’m reminded of a conversation some 3-4 years ago which was about why the first million was hard, and the second million was easy. I thought I had come up with a good explanation: It takes many doublings from a given modest starting amount for investing to reach 1 million, but just one other doubling to make it to two million.

When I saw a graph similar to the one above (can’t find that post) I came up with another explanation why the second million is easy. Draw a horizontal line at $200-$250 and you can see it is just the same million dollar time and time again.

True for me. I'm looking forward to making the 3rd million as many times as I've made the second.

 

[Mengy]

So on one side we have the Berlin Vin tracker saying Berlin has been steady at 5k/week for 2-3 months now and Tesla saying themselves that they’re hitting production goals (5,000/week) while REDUCING staff hours needed to do so back in July.

On the other hand, you have BI who is known for putting out hit pieces and lies.

Just to add some fun to it....Tesla just bounced off support and everyone and their mom knows the Cybertruck delivery catalyst is mere weeks away.

Gee I wonder why BI would be timed this "insider source" piece to come out right now? On a day when Powell speaks and Nvidia's earnings are going to massively impact the market?

After you see this strategy play out time and time again over years, it nearly becomes predictable, doesn't it?

 

[2daMoon]

Doesn't it make sense for Tesla to commit some resources to ensure battery replacement costs are reasonable for existing owners? Seems to me that unless this replacement issue is all but nonexistent, it becomes a thorn in resale values, confidence/perception of BEVs longterm, and is literally counter to the mission. Certainly ensuring that battery replacement at cost with focused resources dedicated to driving that actual cost down would be the right thing and in the spirit of what Elon has claimed he wants Tesla doing. Just seems that the growth mantra allows things like this to fall through the cracks.

It seems to me this will be dealt with in a similar fashion as engine replacement has always been with ICE vehicles. The OEM will offer a high-priced solution for a factory new item*, and the aftermarket will offer a range of options from new to rebuilt at more reasonable prices.
*(because the overhead is high to set up and support keeping battery spares in stock, maintained, and available in distribution centers)

It seems logical that most folks dealing with an ICE in need of out-of-warranty replacement most likely opt to get a replacement vehicle rather than replace the engine. This will likely be the case for those needing a battery beyond the warranty period as well.

The very few owners left who desire to have a battery replaced will define a tiny number of vehicles to provide for. It will be an expensive proposition, just as it is with ICEngine replacements now.

The most significant explanation for why it will "fall through the cracks" is the mere fact that it will fit into the cracks in the first place.

 

[SarahsDad]

While I'm no technical analyst, it sure seems like there's a trend here.

View attachment 967213

Looking at these trend lines further, which by the way are all the same slope, the rate of increase is almost exactly $175/yr. With 252 trading days a year, that means, you guessed it, $0.69 per day.

 

[InDaClub]

So much "BRAND DAMAGE"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694124072517489147

Adding text of post for peeps that don't have access.

Jon Erlichman

@JonErlichman

Tesla's revenue:

2023: $73,000 every 23 seconds
2020: $73,000 every 1 minute, 34 seconds
2015: $73,000 every 9 minutes
2010: $73,000 every 5 hours
2007: $73,000 for the year

7:07 PM · Aug 22, 2023 239.8K Views

 

[UkNorthampton]

Liked by Elon & a valid point as we find out Legacy OEMs are fragile & Tesla is antifragile


Jason DeBolt ️
@jasondebolt
If you study the concept of antifragility, you’ll realize that Tesla is an extremely antifragile company.

Most companies are fragile, non-volatile, predictable and steady. But these are traits of fragility. They are much more likely to unexpectedly go to zero than an antifragile company like Tesla. Volatility isn’t the same thing as risk.

Tesla has survived numerous stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, and failures. And it’s way stronger as a result, just like a human muscle grows from stressors and tension.
3:43 PM · Aug 23, 2023
·
19.8K Views

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694359663234674790

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

This paints a different picture..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1688605001562644480

Utter insanity thinking this is the production rate now.

We've been discussing this for over a quarter how the production rate in Berlin is like 3500 and has been relatively flat most of this year.

This is backed up by both VIN growth rates and you know, no additional production / deliveries out of Berlin.

In fact you can see this in this exact graph, which is trying to force an exponential fit to a 1.5 year graph.

Look at the last ~ 200 days (aka most of this year) - you can just as easily fit a straight line to it. You can tell the end of exponential is starting to "lift off" from the actual most recent data. Meaning that most recent slope is definitely overestimating production.

TLDR: Production seems to be still under 4000 / week, not the obviously overestimated 5400 / wk.

 

[Usain]

So let's say FSD V12 is both hands-free and non-beta. And let's say this happens within the next 12 months.

Where do you guess that would put the stock price?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So let's say FSD V12 is both hands-free and non-beta. And let's say this happens within the next 12 months.

Where do you guess that would put the stock price?

IMO...$320-$350, (Caveat: Look at my sig)

 

[Two-rocks]

So let's say FSD V12 is both hands-free and non-beta. And let's say this happens within the next 12 months.

Where do you guess that would put the stock price?

Knock knock - who's there...

Not yet....

It will take years, the stock will climb as we get closer - and I will be retired early either way.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So let's say FSD V12 is both hands-free and non-beta. And let's say this happens within the next 12 months.

Where do you guess that would put the stock price?

Well if you're inferring that since FSD at that point would be hand-free and non-beta then it infers that :

- All functionality is implemented and active in FSD
- Edge cases for FSD have been near eliminated
- False positives such as phantom breaking, lane drift, etc...are all things from the past

I don't think FSD goes hands free until and is officially out of beta until functionality is complete and Tesla is well into the march of 9's.

As for stock price, I think you're looking at 3 re-rating events that will happen and it's possible all three happen with a 12 month span.

Re-rate 1 - FSD moves out of beta, is hands free which infers disengagements are incredibly low since Tesla is confident enough to take on liability. Tesla's FSD approach is thus confirmed as viable and likely market leading thanks to their approach (rate of expansion and cost of expansion verses competitors)

Re-rate 2 - Other auto makers begin licensing FSD which takes Tesla's autonomy vision from market leading to mass adopted

Re-rate 3 - FSD SAAS flowing into earnings

It's entirely possible that Re-Rate 2 and 3 happen close to the same time or they may be spread apart. Re-rate 3 could actually happen before re-rate 2.

But overall, I could easily see each Re-Rate adding 500 million onto Tesla's market cap with the biggie, Re-Rate #3, leading to a trillion dollar addition to Tesla's current market cap.

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694393744710312155

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694393744710312155

My theory is that this is Marques:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693999554839052636

5% chance that Elon livestreams drive to Zuck's house in next 2 days in the Cybertruck running V12 alpha.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694403816920137880

 

[CorneliusXX]

I am 99.9% sure Octopus Kraken has the equivalent functionality to Tesla Autobidder in almost every respect, including both domestic and utility push and pull. At the utility-only level you can buy solutions such as the RES one. Both are available and running in many countries. There are many others but I don't bother keeping track of them as many get white-labelled so it is very tedious to parse out the reality in what is available public domain.

For some customers Tesla brand does matter (as did IBM) but by no means all.

There's lots of little startups that off similar systems for megapack scale BESS. It's almost a trope at this point for energy traders to get sick of working for a bank or energy company, hire a coder and create a saas startup to do autobidder work.

 

[hitchhiker]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694393744710312155

What? Details about the cybertruck might be coming in the next couple of months? Who'd have thunk it!?!

 

[uscbucsfan]

What? Details about the cybertruck might be coming in the next couple of months? Who'd have thunk it!?!

That individual said the all in price will be over 80k, "all-in". If they have any real info, hopefully that includes FSD.

Some of the postulation is the Sandy will be getting a CT for tear down.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That individual said the all in price will be over 80k, "all-in". If they have any real info, hopefully that includes FSD.

Some of the postulation is the Sandy will be getting a CT for tear down.

$69,420 or $64,999?