Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

In the Q&A at the end of the video, my most pressing question was answered, but then raised another question. When Jeff Dahn says 100% charge in the video, does he mean a cell charged to 100% in a lab setting, or the 100% state of charged shown on your display in your car? He says he means the latter. So charging to 75% would actually be 75%, not 80% because the manufacturer built in a safety margin.
Thats a nice clean answer, but don't manufacturers use different safety margins on their batteries? I've heard some brands are quite conservative, which would lead to a different optimal SoC. Or not? I suppose if the safety margin is enlarged on both sides, then the % of the optimal SoC wont change either. So there's that.. I'll just keep that 75 in my head

Don't know the correct answer to this, but what I can tell you is that my early 2013 S 85 lived outdoors in Texas (DFW), charged to 90% daily, ~50% highway trip miles, and after seven years 130K miles the battery had only lost 8%. My opinion is that--at least for Tesla--stressing over battery SOC is a lot about nothing. Just don't leave the car sit at over 90% or under 20% and the battery management system will take care of it.

 

[lascavarian]

FWIW, noting that TSLA has closed under max pain every trading day since July 31st. Today MP is 250. Good info on short interest. Also noting volume seems a bit uncertain lately. Love to see stable building volume on rising price replace the recent squirreliness.

 

[MC3OZ]

Alright, last one: Dahn also mentions that Single Crystal is already in production and used in a bunch of cars. No specifics.

I speculate on that, and a few other things here:- Super Bulls Only

Short answer - I think the Austin Cathode plant could produce single crystal cathodes, buying them from the Chinese is too expensive,.

 

[Atomsla]

Don't know the correct answer to this, but what I can tell you is that my early 2013 S 85 lived outdoors in Texas (DFW), charged to 90% daily, ~50% highway trip miles, and after seven years 130K miles the battery had only lost 8%. My opinion is that--at least for Tesla--stressing over battery SOC is a lot about nothing. Just don't leave the car sit at over 90% or under 20% and the battery management system will take care of it.

No need for stress, of course. If you want to treat the battery the best way it can be, you can take Jeff's advice to heart,
I normally charge to 80-85 but will probably change to 75 now for regular daily use. Whenever required, charge limit goes up.

 

[scaesare]

No need for stress, of course. If you want to treat the battery the best way it can be, you can take Jeff's advice to heart,
I normally charge to 80-85 but will probably change to 75 now for regular daily use. Whenever required, charge limit goes up.

Also in the 2013 club... typically charge to 70% for daily use... would bump up as needed. 10+ yrs later and I'm only 9ish % down.

 

[Krugerrand]

Just when you think Farley and Ford turned a corner....

I can’t decide who’s lying the most; the media or the faces of Ford (and Toyota, GM etc.) who are providing interviews and quotes for the media.

The information coming from the OEMs (including their incredible PR departments ) and the middle man media on a daily basis is so contradictory and convoluted that I can’t take any of it seriously or at face value. It’s essentially a charcuterie platter of verbal diarrhea being thrown at a wall to see what sticks.

Linking articles or quotes from people no longer represents evidence of any kind of truth about anything on any topic.

 

[Stretch2727]

Pikachu shock face now that every legacy suddenly hyping up hybrids after the IRA allow their cars to have the federal tax credit after intense lobbying I'm sure.

Farley was very clear they are not going to be plug in Hybrids, so no tax credit.

They think they can sell a lot of vehicles by marketing hybrids as a vehicles with a "free" power generator. Basically at idle the vehicles can produce anywhere from 2.0 to 9.6Kw. I guess they have found many are buying hybrids just to have a backup power generator.

https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/more-vehicle-topics/f-series-features/what-is-the-pro-power-onboard/

From the conference call transcript.

Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer

What the customer really likes is when we take a hybrid system that's more efficient in duty cycles, and then we add new capabilities battery like Pro Power Ford. We're seeing a lot in that combination of using the battery or something beyond just moving the vehicle. And that popularity, I mean, we never thought we would be at 50% hybrid mix for Maverick.

It was far beyond our expectation. And so, we're just listening to the market. We believe that ICE customers, Blue customers don't want to be left behind. They want modern powertrains, and decarbonizing with them is just as attractive.

Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I want to make it really clear. The term hybrid is going to -- in our industry going to get our company. Hybrid could be a serial hybrid.

It just means a motor powers batteries. It could be a hybrid in the traditional sense that like the F-150 hybrid or the -- and the hybrids I'm referring to are not plug-in hybrids. They are vehicles without a plug.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Today's data point

"The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in July. Prices for final demand services rose 0.5 percent, and the index for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand advanced 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July."

 

[Unpilot]

Today's data point

"The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in July. Prices for final demand services rose 0.5 percent, and the index for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand advanced 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July."

So bad.....?

 

[Cosmacelf]

The biggest problem with future expectations of Tesla FSD is that there is no certainty whatsoever that HW3 will ever be approved for full autonomy (i.e. no driver).

HW4 added radar back in after it was removed.

HW3/4 has no ultrasonic sensors so for tight manoeuvres the car has to rely on Tesla Vision/Occupancy Network, which - as of today - is inaccurate at best, unusable at worst. (source: my 2023 Model Y, distance estimation from Tesla Vision is extremely flawed and unreliable. It even makes we wonder if Autopark will ever come back online).

If Tesla Vision can be trained further to be 99.9999% reliable I'll swallow my words, but given what I see now (and the evolution of FSD since the first Autonomy day), I don't expect "robotaxis" soon.

In other words, "the greatest asset value increase of all time" as Elon calls it, will only be relevant to the hardware suite that can support robotaxis. I sincerely hope that'll be HW3, but every passing day I become more skeptical.

Otherwise I'm very bullish on Tesla. But "instant deployment of robotaxis through an OTA" seems a fairy tale to me. The hardware is insufficient IMO.

HW3 isn’t good enough for full autonomy, IMHO. It’s fine for FSD though, which I think is all Tesla has promised. At 50% per year growth, it hardly matters to the Tesla bottom line. There will be plenty of Teslas in 2 years with HW4 that can do full autonomy. You can always trade in your Tesla if you want to hire it out as a ride share vehicle. Yes, there’ll be tons of whining going on, but whatevs.

 

[Opus BC fan]

So bad.....?

Slightly higher than estimates and likely good enough to fuel the FUD of the day.

 

[Krugerrand]

Farley was very clear they are not going to be plug in Hybrids.

They think they can sell a lot of vehicles by marketing hybrids as a vehicles with a "free" power generator. Basically at idle the vehicles can produce anywhere from 2.0 to 9.6Kw. I guess they have found many are buying hybrids just to have a backup power generator.

https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/more-vehicle-topics/f-series-features/what-is-the-pro-power-onboard/

From the conference call transcript.

Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer

What the customer really likes is when we take a hybrid system that's more efficient in duty cycles, and then we add new capabilities battery like Pro Power Ford. We're seeing a lot in that combination of using the battery or something beyond just moving the vehicle. And that popularity, I mean, we never thought we would be at 50% hybrid mix for Maverick.

It was far beyond our expectation. And so, we're just listening to the market. We believe that ICE customers, Blue customers don't want to be left behind. They want modern powertrains, and decarbonizing with them is just as attractive.

Jim Farley -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I want to make it really clear. The term hybrid is going to -- in our industry going to get our company. Hybrid could be a serial hybrid.

It just means a motor powers batteries. It could be a hybrid in the traditional sense that like the F-150 hybrid or the -- and the hybrids I'm referring to are not plug-in hybrids. They are vehicles without a plug.

That’s just bs from Ford.

There are literally commercials showing how an EV/Hybrid can be used to ‘power your campsite on top of a mountain in the middle of nowhere’ or whatever. They’re all telling customers ‘this is how you should use your EV/Hybrid’. It’s a schtick, a gimmick, a made up ‘selling feature’ to try and have an edge over competitors or in many cases just sell a car or two they’ve been having trouble selling.

Customers never asked for that because they didn’t even know it could be a thing. Only people deep into EVs had a lightbulb moment; my power just went out during a heatwave/freak September snowstorm/monsoon/whathaveyou and I’ve got a giant battery in my Tesla, wouldn’t it be cool if I could use it to survive?

Mr. Farley is talking out his derrière. He’s all over the place trying to sell Ford vehicles as a solution for every circumstance. You want an ICE? We got those. You want a BEV? We got those. You want an expensive battery on wheels with a fossil fuel generator to charge that battery so that you can plug your electric can opener into it and use it at the North Pole? We got those too.

 

[SarahsDad]

Don't know the correct answer to this, but what I can tell you is that my early 2013 S 85 lived outdoors in Texas (DFW), charged to 90% daily, ~50% highway trip miles, and after seven years 130K miles the battery had only lost 8%. My opinion is that--at least for Tesla--stressing over battery SOC is a lot about nothing. Just don't leave the car sit at over 90% or under 20% and the battery management system will take care of it.

Also in the 2013 club... typically charge to 70% for daily use... would bump up as needed. 10+ yrs later and I'm only 9ish % down.

I'm also in the 2013 club and the 90% charged club. I charged my 2013 P85+ to 90% daily and when I sold it 5 years later it was only 3% down. The battery management system does the heavy lifting.

 

[FireMedic]

Portfolio fees +7.6%?!

Thanks for the clarity @The Accountant.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689991672434712579

 

[lascavarian]

Portfolio fees +7.6%?!

Thanks for the clarity @The Accountant.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689991672434712579

Yeah, 7.6% increase for fees seems a bit rich…

 

[Drumheller]

A math point, if you have portfolio fees of 0.50%, a 7.6% increase of those fees raises the fees to 0.538%

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Month over month? @The Accountant seems to think it’s significant and unusual.

And I, knowing nothing, agree!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689989754375254018

What a completely useless metric to track at all by the Fed. That metric has little to no actual impact on the average consumers wallet in regards to inflation.

 

[lascavarian]

A math point, if you have portfolio fees of 0.50%, a 7.6% increase of those fees raises the fees to 0.538%

Good discussion. I would also comment that reducing my portfolio under management as Gov’t bonds are purchased in anticipation of rate drops might/could result in a bump in management fee rate.

My understanding is that fees tend to rise as amount under management crosses certain trip-point amounts.

My understanding is shallow on this so others more experienced might comment.

Does not seem like core reflection of Main Street economy inflation however. YMMV

 

[GrandEnigma]

When one lives paycheck-to-paycheck as most do, especially those most impacted by inflation, I am sure they are worrying about their management fees on the $0 they have invested.

Here in ever progressive NJ auto insurance rates are going up by as much as 29% due to recently passed legislation requiring higher minimum coverages.

On that note, insurance is an interesting business. My R1S was $5mo cheaper to insure then my MYP (presumably due to lack of data on the R1S re cost to repair, etc.)

With the average new car price of just under $50k and insurance being as much as $200mo for some, driving is very quickly becoming what it once was, a luxury of the rich.

Good thing we country has invested so much in public transportation and our cities and suburbs are so walkable.

 

[Unpilot]

With the average new car price of just under $50k and insurance being as much as $200mo for some, driving is very quickly becoming what it once was, a luxury of the rich.

Or a game of...."what the hell I'll take my chances and roll with no insurance"