Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Were people attacking P&D numbers? Tesla stock is up like 140% YTD as of Friday's close, and even the optimistic observers had deliveries around that 450,000 number that was blown out of the water.

All of the vehicles will move, the question is at what prices and this is of course something Elon is very cognizant of as he has repeatedly commented about there being plenty of demand but price being the driving factor.

It'll be interesting if we get some insight into what produced this beat that was so massively above almost everyone's estimates, bulls and bears alike.

Yes, the numbers were being attacked before they even came out. They’re always being attacked, as is every other aspect of Tesla.

Demand problems
4680 battery ramp disastrous
Inventory climbing uncontrollably
Margins going to be decimated (this one will be finalized in a couple weeks)

 

[dhanson865]

He was definitely over the actual of ~466,140 with his guess of 520,000 (on May 7th) compared to Troy at 441k and troy's earlier go at 429k (from April 9).


If you had taken Troys 441k from June and James' 520k from May and averaged them you would have had 480.5k which is very close to spot on for Production (high for deliveries).

In reality neither of those guesses on their own is good enough to get kudos.

Spoiler: Troy's 429k

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/screenshot_20230702_094130_twitter-jpg.952640/

fwiw James has some competition to be the most optimistic.

View attachment 952687

Time for more pretty charts/tables/graphs from James

 

[dhanson865]

 

[Krugerrand]

I'd definitely think that's something of the expectation considering the stock's performance over the last six months, failing companies are not seeing 140% YTD increases while interest rates have shot up around the world.

It's not like 450k was some super bearish estimate though, the actual numbers were way above basically everyone's expectations and I'm sure many are curious what everyone missed

Stop quoting the %140 up YTD. The stock is still way under priced.

 

[dhanson865]

Wow, poor Infiniti and Jaguar are getting hit hard.

 

[dhanson865]

So Halo started a "driverless car" service today where it takes 3 people to keep 1 car going.

1 remote driver over the internet
2 chase driver in a second car
3 chase passenger in the second car. The chase passenger has a kill switch for the car in case the remote driver can't control it.

 

[Paracelsus]

The Manipulating Felons haven't had the opportunity to manipulate much………..

A very respectful disagree @madodel - WS, and particularly GS had the inside scoop to this huge beat IMO before their ‘downgrade’ of TSLA at the beginning of last week, which resulted in the otherwise completely unexplainable 10% slide in share price as a result. And ‘They’ likely sold the top on their own ‘news’ (downgrade) and then bought the bottom for the coming 20% bump on this beat - which they knew was coming. So that manipulation of which you speak was already well in your rear view mirror. Yep - why make only 10% when you can screw Retail investors for another 10%. The GS downgrade and the subsequent share price slide into the holiday weekend just before numbers was disgustingly obvious to anyone following TSLA for the last decade. But the power of the corrupt media to tell a prescribed narrative keeps bleeding the little guy for anyone still willing to tune in. @joh01652 was spot-on in a recent post when he said WS could put this stock at any price at anytime for a short time. My sentiments exactly. The only way to win with this stock is to HODL and buy the dip…..buy every dip.

 

[Xepa777]

He was definitely over the actual of ~466,140 with his guess of 520,000 (on May 7th) compared to Troy at 441k and troy's earlier go at 429k (from April 9).


If you had taken Troys 441k from June and James' 520k from May and averaged them you would have had 480.5k which is very close to spot on for Production (high for deliveries).

In reality neither of those guesses on their own is good enough to get kudos.

Spoiler: Troy's 429k

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/attachments/screenshot_20230702_094130_twitter-jpg.952640/

fwiw James has some competition to be the most optimistic.

View attachment 952687

James Stephenson is so damn insufferable he's the Gordon Johnson of Tesla Bulls. He's like billboard material for TSLAQ with his ridiculous projections. He really predicted 520k? Holy *sugar*.

 

[CaliBear1]

Love these P&D numbers, especially since my shiny new LR Model Y is in there and contributing to the bottom line!

 

[madodel]

A very respectful disagree @madodel - WS, and particularly GS had the inside scoop to this huge beat IMO before their ‘downgrade’ of TSLA at the beginning of last week, which resulted in the otherwise completely unexplainable 10% slide in share price as a result. And ‘They’ likely sold the top on their own ‘news’ (downgrade) and then bought the bottom for the coming 20% bump on this beat - which they knew was coming. So that manipulation of which you speak was already well in your rear view mirror. Yep - why make only 10% when you can screw Retail investors for another 10%. The GS downgrade and the subsequent share price slide into the holiday weekend just before numbers was disgustingly obvious to anyone following TSLA for the last decade. But the power of the corrupt media to tell a prescribed narrative keeps bleeding the little guy for anyone still willing to tune in. @joh01652 was spot-on in a recent post when he said WS could put this stock at any price at anytime for a short time. My sentiments exactly. The only way to win with this stock is to HODL and buy the dip…..buy every dip.

No argument. But the timing this week, with the half day and then a short 3 day week will make it a tad more difficult. They'll have to stop sipping their fancy drinks on the beach to phone their lackeys at Barrons and the WSJ to invent bizarre spin to rationalize driving down the price more.

As always longs win in the end, but the MFers will continue the short term manipulations based on lies.

 

[Thekiwi]

The groupings are so tight in these estimates with only 3% range high to low. Trimming the highest and lowest predictions leaves a range of 0.8% - that's less than 3/4s of one day of production - basically arguing about an extended lunch break.

Extra apparent now that most WS analysts are doing zero modeling of their own and just using @Troy estimates.

 

[unk45]

I just received this message from a Moderator who chose not to be identified:
"...This is a pretty blatant attempt to spin up a troll thread so I am deleting it. Dont (sic) do this again or I will take action against your account."
I cannot respond to the Moderator in question because I cannot identify who it was. I wish to say that if said Moderator wants me to leave please advise me directly with identification. I will delete my account and cease posting if that is your wish.

I apologize for posting this in this location, especially on such a stellar day for Tesla and Tesla investors. I know not where better to post this.
I do respect Moderator decisions even if they are in the form above. So, to be compliant, this will be my last post until I have received clarification.

Mod: Looking into this. I smell a rat.
Othermod: Not me and doesn't sound like @Right_Said_Fred either. We'll follow up but suggest ignoring it. --ggr

I appreciate all the Moderator help. It seems most likely that the message I received was not sent from a Moderator at all, but was a fake. I feel as though I’ve failed to recognize a fake.
Another lesson I wish I’d never have to have learned.

Mod: It was a real moderator from another forum, but sent in error. Case closed. I have sent details to @unk45. --ggr

 

[dhanson865]

James Stephenson is so damn insufferable he's the Gordon Johnson of Tesla Bulls. He's like billboard material for TSLAQ with his ridiculous projections. He really predicted 520k? Holy *sugar*.

519,967 as seen on row 157 col Y

In today's video he said he didn't factor in enough production down time at the factories in Q2.

 

[2daMoon]

Well, we knew something like this was coming:

BYD Beat Tesla in China Again. This Is a Two-Horse Race, Though.

Sunday, BYD 251,685 electrified passenger vehicles sold in June. For the second quarter that means BYD sold more than 700,000 EVs, up almost 100% over last year.

www.barrons.com

Of course it's misleading...but what do we expect from Barrons.

BYD needs to think bigger.

If they connect a battery charger to each of their ICE vehicles' start battery, couldn't those be counted as "electrified" as well?

/s

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Extra apparent now that most WS analysts are doing zero modeling of their own and just using @Troy estimates.

You mean like this:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If this means anything, this quote is from RH 24 hour platform:

 

[Singuy]

GS raised price target to 275

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675682876287770626

 

[M|S|M MYP]

GS raised price target to 275

https://twitter.com/x/status/1675682876287770626

But wait...I don't get it /s

6 days ago...

Goldman Sachs slaps Tesla with another downgrade

Despite a recent winning streak spanning 13 consecutive days and a $240 billion boost to valuation, Goldman Sachs slapped Tesla with its fourth share downgrade of the month.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hock1]

Exactly. Also, using GAAP to value a fast growing disruptor is also silly.

or P/Es or any backwark looking metric,

 

[unk45]

Exactly. Also, using GAAP to value a fast growing disruptor is also silly.

GAAP and IFRS do have major benefits by establishing standards. As with all standards there are limitations. In the Tesla case there are a categories that are uniquely distorting:

- The direct sales model results in Tesla holding in inventory ALL completed products until they have been paid in full and delivered to end purchaser;
- The direct sales model coupled with Superchargers causes Tesla to hold the ENTIRE distribution system on its balance sheet.
-The continual new factories, new stores, Supercharger expansion and new countries added all cause Capex to be unusually high;
- Partly due to the first point, Tesla has a cash conversion cycle that makes rapid growth a cash generating process.
- All four of those are unprecedented, as is the infinitesimal debt load.

All those points are obvious and fully disclosed. GAAP really only is an issue in thst IFRS sales recognition allows sales to be recognized when vehicles are shipped to a dealer. Think about that!

People, even us, fret about inventory levels when Tesla has far, far less inventory than does any OEM with a dealer network. GAAP really is not designed to substitute for actual analysis.

The nearly universal misunderstanding of Tesla disclosures produces insanity such as Schwab rating TSLA ‘F’.

Even the Tesla fans among analysts seem not to understand the fundamental business model.
Not a GAAP problem but a superficiality problem. Factually an integrity problem because integrity demands understanding truth. Superficiality produces FUD even from people with no ill intent.