Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

This seems odd. There must be something more to it.

We'll never know. Was it because of EU future demand? Battery Supply? A leak?

I suspect Elon courts many countries so nobody can read the demand signals (long growth/timing). This puts each country in a feverish race to be next in line, giving Tesla maximum negotiating leverage. And why wouldn't they fight to have jobs in the future?

New countries should have to cough up their own battery supply, then go by location, taxes, and talent.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The data is the data (as far as we can see it). Comparing like with like Berlin+Austin are about 1.5Q behind where Fremont+Shanghai were.

Since Fremont and Shanghai opened I'd like to think that Tesla has learned more about manufacturing and selling the 3/Y. So it should be easier, not harder.

The issue is the cell availability.

As investors we need to look at the facts

View attachment 951027

And the facts are that Tesla is not getting the batteries it needs in either absolute or % terms, and that this is inhibiting the required growth, and that this situation is worse than it was before.

The implication is that the 4680 ramp is not where it needs to be.

View attachment 951030

(FWIW I do not like this one bit, but these are the facts as far as I can see them)

I'm not ignoring reality -

A) The start of production is subjective in your chart. Austin started deliveries in Q2 2022. Pretty sure Tesla made more than 30 Y's for all of Q2 2022. Your second quarter of production for Austin is actually it's 1st quarter.

B) The numbers in your graph for the most recent quarter do not add up. Austin did not make more Y's than Berlin. The numbers add up even less when you take into account that your 1st month of Austin production is actually the 2nd month. I don't know where you're sourcing these numbers from.

C) I already acknowledged that they're way behind Shanghai. That's obvious and really has no relevancy here. They were never going to recreate Shanghai speed.

Also your graph for battery production. I don't even know where to begin with that. Tesla is sourcing batteries from more than just Panasonic now. 4680 packs are only going into a % of Austin production. We don't know the %. All of Berlin production isn't predicated on 4680 development. Then add in the fact that Tesla has been consistently changing the battery types into which trim on both the 3 and Y over the past 6 months which alleviates bottlenecks on 2170 supply. I'm not saying there's no 2170 shortage or that at times pack supply hasn't been tight. But I have no idea where you're getting that graph and what numbers and factors are going into it.

 

[nativewolf]

The data is the data (as far as we can see it). Comparing like with like Berlin+Austin are about 1.5Q behind where Fremont+Shanghai were.

Since Fremont and Shanghai opened I'd like to think that Tesla has learned more about manufacturing and selling the 3/Y. So it should be easier, not harder.

The issue is the cell availability.

As investors we need to look at the facts

View attachment 951027

And the facts are that Tesla is not getting the batteries it needs in either absolute or % terms, and that this is inhibiting the required growth, and that this situation is worse than it was before.

The implication is that the 4680 ramp is not where it needs to be.

View attachment 951030

(FWIW I do not like this one bit, but these are the facts as far as I can see them)

I gave it a heart because it is data, not blather. I don't like the implications that the 4680 is still still not ramping. Nonetheless that's the only implication to be drawn. To boot, it's pushing the Semi out...F that, it really hurts our business plans if we have to move to a DIESEL SEMI....it would make it very difficult to justify a large, grant paid for, solar install. Come on you wankers...get the 4680 going.

 

[Maarten]

Indeed, it seems like a lame excuse to stop the deal without some other factors involved.

Well, if Tesla has stated beforehand: "whatever happens, no leaks during the negotiations", then this leak may have ended it all.
Elon Musk has shown in the past that being taken seriously is a big thing for him.
Remember when many years ago the Russians didn't take Elon serious when he wanted to buy rockets: he went out and never came back.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I gave it a heart because it is data, not blather. I don't like the implications that the 4680 is still still not ramping. Nonetheless that's the only implication to be drawn. To boot, it's pushing the Semi out...F that, it really hurts our business plans if we have to move to a DIESEL SEMI....it would make it very difficult to justify a large, grant paid for, solar install. Come on you wankers...get the 4680 going.

Let's apply to Tesla and fix it ourselves! Isn't that the new norm?
Ready when they are.

 

[geometro]

Dumb question— any factor in today’s -6%?
Ross? Rumors of low p/d?
Something else?

 

[madodel]

Dumb question— any factor in today’s -6%?
Ross? Rumors of low p/d?
Something else?

Probably the Manipulating Felons (AKA MFers) Goldman Sachs who downgraded TSLA for no particular reason other than what they could make up. That along with the previous two MFers downgrades.

Tesla stock drops after Goldman Sachs downgrade Goldman's move follows downgrades by Barclays and Morgan Stanley.

In the end these thieves won't stop Tesla.

 

[SmokyPeat]

OT- Dr. John Goodenough, Nobel laureate and Li ion battery pioneer, has passed away at the age of 100. A life well lived.

UT Mourns Lithium-Ion Battery Inventor and Nobel Prize Recipient John Goodenough - UT News

John B. Goodenough, professor at The University of Texas at Austin who is known around the world for the development of the lithium-ion battery, died

news.utexas.edu

 

[nativewolf]

Let's apply to Tesla and fix it ourselves! Isn't that the new norm?
Ready when they are.

Man I wish I could...I am in year 5 of a program that's 20 years...well past normal retirement. However, if you are bright and available please do. Frankly we need Tesla to do to the trucking industry what it did to light vehicles. Nobody else is really stepping up yet.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw, I thought I was communicating pretty well but to be very clear, my previous handful of posts are not meant to be taken as bullishness and for someone to go buy some lotto options for next week.

I'm simply pointing out conflicting data for this quarter around production.

A good example of this is Berlin production, the vin registration data we've gotten is showing contradictory things. On one hand, we have VIN's number data from countries that are reporting VIN's daily that numerically point to the fact that Berlin has sustained the 5k/week rate since mid-late May. On the other hand, the actual number of VIN registrations that we can track don't support the idea that Berlin has been at 5k/week rate since May. So the question is, is Berlin skipping entire batches of production or is some production unaccounted for...as in, the countries that don't report daily and/or new locations or expansion on other countries that Tesla intends Berlin to service.

As for Austin, Tesla announced they hit 4k/week run rate on April 2nd. They announced they hit 5k/week on May 9th. Now do I believe that rates were achieved and Tesla just went consistently higher the next week? No. In fact they could have done something like 4k/week and then 3700-3800/next week before moving higher. Same with hitting 5k/week. They might have just hit that one week and the next couple of weeks was 4,000-4,500/week.

But what seems hard to believe is that Tesla hit 4k/week, went all the way down to 3k/week only to jump to 5k/week 2 weeks later, only to drop to 3,500/week for the rest of Q2. Like...come on .

So the Troy estimate of an average of 3,500/week for Austin doesn't add up to me and it's why this P/D could is a wildcard P/D. It's also why I'm not even going to bother putting in a estimate. Let's just say anywhere from 440k-500k. Because the gap is really that large this quarter.

 

[Mike Smith]

Distracted driving causes 500,000 injuries or deaths per year in the USA.

This distracted driving accident didn't cause injury or death, but it did involve a Tesla so it's top news on Reuters.

Tesla on Autopilot crashes into stopped truck in Pennsylvania

A Tesla vehicle that was operating on its Autopilot software crashed into a stationary truck on a highway in Pennsylvania on Friday night, police said, adding to scrutiny of the automaker's driver assistance system.

www.reuters.com

 

[jerry33]

I'll presume you were joking.... but in case you weren't, the obvious advantage of a lower front lip to lift stuff in to it.

And here I thought it was a cat muncher.

 

[Singuy]

Seems like Tesla may have pushed a map data out or something. Car now stops correctly @ 35mph

 

[AZRI11]

Distracted driving causes 500,000 injuries or deaths per year in the USA.

This distracted driving accident didn't cause injury or death, but it did involve a Tesla so it's top news on Reuters.

Tesla on Autopilot crashes into stopped truck in Pennsylvania

A Tesla vehicle that was operating on its Autopilot software crashed into a stationary truck on a highway in Pennsylvania on Friday night, police said, adding to scrutiny of the automaker's driver assistance system.

www.reuters.com

The kid was driving a 2016 Tesla.
Hardware 1.0?

Hardware 2.0 and Enhanced Autopilot were introduced In October 2016.

Tesla on autopilot strikes parked work truck on Pa. Turnpike: state police

A Tesla set on autopilot crashed into a parked work truck on the Pa. Turnpike, according to state police.

www.pennlive.com

 

[CaliBear1]

I tend to agree.

While I suspect there will be segment of the population that will seldom use it, such as the folks who primarily use it as a family hauler and don't use it as a work/cargo vehicle), there will be a corresponding segment that uses it a lot.

I just got back from spending a good chink of the last couple of weeks on a job, and we had tools in back of the truck and were used the tonneau cover a lot to keep weather out, and to lock it up overnight.

That having been said, I hope the speed on it is fast enough to not be an inconvenience. We were constantly flipping a segment or two of the cover up to quickly grab a tool than flip it closed again to keep the rain out. Took a few seconds. If it takes 30-45 seconds each time that will be annoying....

Three words:

Golf clubs secured.

 

[MC3OZ]

The implication is that the 4680 ramp is not where it needs to be.

While that might be true, there is plenty that we don't know.

1) Is this unplanned and unexpected? Tesla guided for 1.8M to 2M vehicles when they already had cells for 1.8M
2) What role are the other buildings being constructed at Austin and elsewhere in Texas intended to play? Are those construction projects on time?
3) Where are the raw materials coming from? Have their been in delays in raw materials supply chains?
4) How is staff recruitment / training going?
5) Are they waiting for new equipment, including improved equipment?
6) Are there any technical / yield issues Tesla still needs to resolve?

The ramp may not be where we would like it to be, but we don't know if it is broadly in line with Tesla expectations, or if it is falling short of Tesla expectations. I'm saying Tesla expectations, not Elon expectations.

Even if it is falling short of expectations, we don't know why, or how long it will take to resolve the issues.

Tesla also intended to source 4680s from other suppliers, those other suppliers seem to be progressing at an even slower rate.

 

[Patrick66]

The major negative which no-one seems to be mentioning is the lack of cell supply.

Berlin is set up to use LFP, 2760, and 4680 cells, although there is no production of 4680's to speak of. I'm not 100% if they are doing both CATL prismatic LFP and BYD's blade LFP cells, but both were in the works. Their ramp has been anticipated for years, and while it is possible that the low 4680 yield has hampered things it should be offset significantly by the delay in production ramp.

Austin appears to be building 30-40% 4680 cells based on the castings outside, and 4680 volume is supposed to be in the 1,500-2,000/week equivalent volume. AFAIK for the 2760's they are using both LG and Panasonic, and I thought a third vendor was qualified.

...and then there is the Powerwall/Megapack. Those cells (capacity not physical) could easily be used for vehicle production and the storage products shifted to LFP if batteries were in fact an issue.

If the 4680's are not ramped up within the next 12 months then I can see a production barrier being hit in 2025 based on other OEM's ramp schedules.

Bottom line is there were a lot of committed production capacity for cells that the other OEMs have not been able to use to-date, which should increase available cells on the market meaningfully. That short-term benefit will erode over time, but it should not impact Tesla significantly if all goes according to plan.

 

[dhanson865]

Now in 8 months let’s be at the same place we were 20 (12+8) months ago!

I'm hoping for more than that. I'm wanting some all time highs so I can retire, and It would be nice to move up the market cap leader board.

~$449 a share in 2023 to be around $1.5T passing NVDA and AMZN

~$591 a share in 2024 to be around $2T and pass GOOG

~$733 a share in 2025 to be around $2.5T and pass Saudi Aramco

and so on.

 

[Krugerrand]

Indeed, it seems like a lame excuse to stop the deal without some other factors involved.

Loose lips sink ships.

 

[GhostSkater]

Berlin is set up to use LFP, 2760, and 4680 cells, although there is no production of 4680's to speak of. I'm not 100% if they are doing both CATL prismatic LFP and BYD's blade LFP cells, but both were in the works. Their ramp has been anticipated for years, and while it is possible that the low 4680 yield has hampered things it should be offset significantly by the delay in production ramp.

Austin appears to be building 30-40% 4680 cells based on the castings outside, and 4680 volume is supposed to be in the 1,500-2,000/week equivalent volume. AFAIK for the 2760's they are using both LG and Panasonic, and I thought a third vendor was qualified.

...and then there is the Powerwall/Megapack. Those cells (capacity not physical) could easily be used for vehicle production and the storage products shifted to LFP if batteries were in fact an issue.

If the 4680's are not ramped up within the next 12 months then I can see a production barrier being hit in 2025 based on other OEM's ramp schedules.

Bottom line is there were a lot of committed production capacity for cells that the other OEMs have not been able to use to-date, which should increase available cells on the market meaningfully. That short-term benefit will erode over time, but it should not impact Tesla significantly if all goes according to plan.

I'm 99% sure on this, but someone correct me if I'm wrong

LFP CATL and BYD packs are shipped as a complete unit from the respective factories, Tesla doesn't assemble the LFP packs in house, so there isn't anything they need to do to support those packs in a factory other that logistics of bringing them in and putting on the line

So the nice thing is that it adds to production capacity without that much modifications from Tesla part