Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

If anyone here bought far OTM LEAPS 3-6 months ago, I sure hope you are in the process of swapping those LEAPS for much lower strike priced LEAPS or are swapping them back to shares.

Yes we're still down 34% from the ATH....but there's a lot of expectations set for Q2 P/D and Q2 earnings at this point. I don't see Q2 earnings being bad, but I also don't see a Nvidia type blowout of earnings to support the stock after a 100% rally. P/D numbers would have to come in very big for me to think there won't be a decent selloff of anywhere from 15-25%

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1671202046119395330

 

[bkp_duke]

If anyone here bought far OTM LEAPS 3-6 months ago, I sure hope you are in the process of swapping those LEAPS for much lower strike priced LEAPS or are swapping them back to shares.

Yes we're still down 34% from the ATH....but there's a lot of expectations set for Q2 P/D and Q2 earnings at this point. I don't see Q2 earnings being bad, but I also don't see a Nvidia type blowout of earnings to support the stock after a 100% rally. P/D numbers would have to come in very big for me to think there won't be a decent selloff of anywhere from 15-25%

Happy with my 2025 LEAPS bought back when SP was 110. I have no intention of closing this position for a good while longer. If there is a sell-off, I'll probably use that opportunity to add to the position.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It didn't take much to get to 270 considering where the puts are today and how minimal they are in volume compared to other days that move.
This is FOMO now with limited selling into this (so far anyway).

Focus is 265 and 270, we are already above it and the battle is just warming This current chart below has been going to 500K volume just last week (day is young though). Do that again, and it's 300 in no time!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Happy with my 2025 LEAPS bought back when SP was 110. I have no intention of closing this position for a good while longer. If there is a sell-off, I'll probably use that opportunity to add to the position.

I did the same. Loaded up on 2025 LEAPS with strike prices in the 150-180 range. These LEAPS were bought with the intention to exercise come 2025. So I have no intention of selling them.

However, if I had been bolder and bought a ton of 2025 300-400 strike price LEAPS back in Jan, I absolutely would be cashing those in and either buying shares with the proceeds or buying ATM 2025 LEAPS.

 

[bkp_duke]

I did the same. Loaded up on 2025 LEAPS with strike prices in the 150-180 range. These LEAPS were bought with the intention to exercise come 2025. So I have no intention of selling them.

However, if I had been bolder and bought a ton of 2025 300-350 strike price LEAPS back in Jan, I absolutely would be cashing those in and either buying shares with the proceeds or buying ATM 2025 LEAPS.

Those are the positions I have, 300-350 Jan 2025. I'll look to roll in 2024, or exercise in 2025 if they are ITM at that time (more likely option).

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

I think this quarter is harder to judge. The wave is ending and we have data from only the daily reporters. Between Norway Netherlands, Span, Sweden and Denmark going into today sales are off 6909 with 10-12 days left (some of the daily reporters are a day or two behind). I believe it will comes down to just how many cars Berlin Gigafactory produced in the quarter. With about a week left in March Berlin hit 5000 cars per week. Did Berlin hit roughly 60K in 3 months? I would expect that in June next to none of the Berlin produced cars will be ferried to Norway, Sweden, etc. Will be Train and Truck movement only. So sales from Norway and Sweden will be nearly all from China.

Spain is already passed Q1 and unless sales stopped will handily beat Q1
Sweden needs to see 211 more and unless sales just stopped will surpass Q1
Norway is 4090 behind and unless paces speeds up which requires ships to deliver cars will be the determining factor
Denmark is 1706 behind but if June stays at June pace will sell more in Q2
Netherland is 1223 behind but if June stays at June pace will sell more in Q2

Thanks. I think part of the issue is the assumption of production rate.

Troy is indicating that the production rate (based on VIN data) is still around 3500 / week, not 5000.

I think Tesla investors like to take Tesla's announced burst rate achievements as steady state, but that's simple not been historically true. Same goes with 4680 production.

It seems both Austin and Berlin are both producing at a lower rate than people are expecting. Based on data, I wouldn't expect more than 3500 / week out of either in Q2.

 

[winfield100]

I expected such an uninformed, simplistic response to the idea of a spinoff. Who said anything about losing the branded chargers? There is no reason why the spinoff company, made up of a majority of TSLA shareholders, can't be named Tesla Charging Network, Inc. Look up the history of Thermo Electron. (Probably before your time). They spun off several companies from their diversified holdings. All named Thermo "something", Inc.

@Hock1

Esteemed colleague,
with _all_ _due_ _respect_ to your _well_ thought out plan

I fail to see the _rationale_ or even reason, of selling off the absolute best charging network extant,
that keeps the vehicles from becoming expensive lawn ornaments or compliance city cars,
to become subject to whims of various rapacious owners bent on (gutting) profits.
(or even, (shudder) EA

I'm thinking Martin Shrikelli and Epipens as an object lesson of "wyoming knot" (why not) for one

Remember the mission or a variant explanation thereof

Humans multiplanetary
electrify transportation (and manufacture the energy to do so by not using extractables fossils)

Please give _cogent_ reasons that make a modicum of sense and refute my contention

thank you.

 

[2daMoon]

After looking on the Endangered Species list I was unable to find any reference to TSLA Short-sellers.

Shouldn't they be on the list?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Those are the positions I have, 300-350 Jan 2025. I'll look to roll in 2024, or exercise in 2025 if they are ITM at that time (more likely option).

Same, and glad I kept a few, they're pretty old but finally went positive today. Maybe they're good for a bit more run, but getting that itch again.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Thanks. I think part of the issue is the assumption of production rate.

Troy is indicating that the production rate (based on VIN data) is still around 3500 / week, not 5000.

I think Tesla investors like to take Tesla's announced burst rate achievements as steady state, but that's simple not been historically true. Same goes with 4680 production.

It seems both Austin and Berlin are both producing at a lower rate than people are expecting. Based on data, I wouldn't expect more than 3500 / week out of either in Q2.

Well except for the fact that Berlin officials have commented numerous times of the past few weeks about Berlin being consistently over 5k/week and also this tracker that has put Berlin at over 5k/week production for many weeks now.

Sure the average for the entirety of Q2 might be something like 4500/week since Berlin was at 4k/week at the beginning of Q2 but your (and Troy's) data about Berlin average 3500/week is very flawed.

 

[thx1139]

Thanks. I think part of the issue is the assumption of production rate.

Troy is indicating that the production rate (based on VIN data) is still around 3500 / week, not 5000.

I think Tesla investors like to take Tesla's announced burst rate achievements as steady state, but that's simple not been historically true. Same goes with 4680 production.

It seems both Austin and Berlin are both producing at a lower rate than people are expecting. Based on data, I wouldn't expect more than 3500 / week out of either in Q2.

I can see that early in the Quarter. Even if 1st week of April was back to 3500 per week I would expect steady state to grow week by week.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Well except for the fact that Berlin officials have commented numerous times of the past few weeks about Berlin being consistently over 5k/week and also this tracker that has put Berlin at over 5k/week production for many weeks now.

Sure the average for the entirety of Q2 might be something like 4500/week since Berlin was at 4k/week at the beginning of Q2 but your (and Troy's) data about Berlin average 3500/week is very flawed.

Interesting, do you have some links? I haven't read that before.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thanks. I think part of the issue is the assumption of production rate.

Troy is indicating that the production rate (based on VIN data) is still around 3500 / week, not 5000.

I think Tesla investors like to take Tesla's announced burst rate achievements as steady state, but that's simple not been historically true. Same goes with 4680 production.

It seems both Austin and Berlin are both producing at a lower rate than people are expecting. Based on data, I wouldn't expect more than 3500 / week out of either in Q2.

I must be missing something. Troy's chart shows a positive jolt type change in Q2 when comparing month Jan to May then Feb to June. Like I said earlier, the table looks quite good to me. (Maybe I'm just an Optimus.)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I must be missing something. Troy's chart shows a positive jolt type change in Q2 when comparing month Jan to May then Feb to June. Like I said earlier, the table looks quite good to me. (Maybe I'm just an Optimus.)

Troy thinks there's going to be a significant drop off in month 3 of the quarter compared to Q1. His thesis is based on demand issues.

You either fall into two camps here.

Either A) Tesla doesn't have enough demand and tons of Berlin production is sitting in inventory

or

B) With Shanghai dramatically changing its export logistics (much more exports going to Australia and Canada this quarter), that Berlin production is doing it's own mini version of the wave with logistics and that is why there's been a "gap" between production and deliveries/registrations so far in Q2. As in, what Tesla used to do with Fremont for North America/Canada where most of Fremont production was sent out to the farthest reaches so that it would be delivered in time for the quarter while all of Fremont production in the 2nd half of the quarter went to the west coast.

We'll find out in 10 days.

 

[Captkerosene]

If anyone here bought far OTM LEAPS 3-6 months ago, I sure hope you are in the process of swapping those LEAPS for much lower strike priced LEAPS or are swapping them back to shares.

Yes we're still down 34% from the ATH....but there's a lot of expectations set for Q2 P/D and Q2 earnings at this point. I don't see Q2 earnings being bad, but I also don't see a Nvidia type blowout of earnings to support the stock after a 100% rally. P/D numbers would have to come in very big for me to think there won't be a decent selloff of anywhere from 15-25%

I would say (almost) just the opposite ... there are (almost) no expectations for Q2. TSLA is an AI company.

 

[Hock1]

So a company most people have never heard of is your example of "good branding" from a spinoff? No thanks, I'll stay simplistic on this one.

@Hock1

Esteemed colleague,
with _all_ _due_ _respect_ to your _well_ thought out plan

I fail to see the _rationale_ or even reason, of selling off the absolute best charging network extant,
that keeps the vehicles from becoming expensive lawn ornaments or compliance city cars,
to become subject to whims of various rapacious owners bent on (gutting) profits.
(or even, (shudder) EA

I'm thinking Martin Shrikelli and Epipens as an object lesson of "wyoming knot" (why not) for one

Please give _cogent_ reasons that make a modicum of sense and refute my contention

thank you.

You must have missed the part about the Tesla Charging Network being spun off to existing shareholders, not "sold off" to others who don't have the steadfast commitment to service and quality that anything-Tesla possesses. My idea (and it's just an idea) would involve the continued management of the system, as is. It would just be a separate entity within the Tesla umbrella. Honestly, I know you've been around a long time, like myself, but I'm surprised that you did not recognize that I did not, in any way, suggest that the charging network be sold off for a profit and wash our hands of it. Yes, that would be a "terrible idea". Spinning off ownership to shareholders and installing excellent Tesla executives to run the new Company is a vastly different story. Perhaps you are just responding to the cherry-picked sentence JRP3 quoted above. At any rate, I hope I've answered you question.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I liked this edit of your chart better: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable what has happened since then ? Do you still anticipate recession to kick in later this year ?

@Skryll , It's the same chart, just highlighted the Bollinger Bands. In this chart TSLA could fall as low as $200 today and still be above the bottom trend line established when TSLA hit $101 back in January. regardless of short term fluctuations, long term trajectory for TSLA remains very positive.

Yes, I anticipate a world wide recession. Take away the top seven tech high flyers from the S&P500 and Nasdaq and US is already in a recession. Europe is in a recession. China growth is slowing. Food banks have never been busier, rents have never been higher, environmental disasters and man made disasters... However, I anticipate Tesla to be a safe haven due to products they have in their pipeline that are literally changing the World for the better.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I would say (almost) just the opposite ... there are (almost) no expectations for Q2. TSLA is an AI company.

Sure....if macro holds together. I think there's going to a lot of chop and "fake crashes" over the 2nd half of 2023. If you have LEAPS with the intent on exercising them, then yeah not much to do right now other than watch the ticker.

But if you bought LEAPS as a leverage to increase your gains, the premium you're getting here after the non-stop run up (in the macro's as well) is a good time to swap to safer LEAPS or just stock.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Happy with my 2025 LEAPS bought back when SP was 110. I have no intention of closing this position for a good while longer. If there is a sell-off, I'll probably use that opportunity to add to the position.

I’ve got some June 2024 leaps that are still 30% down. Im hanging on for dear life.