Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

Hearing that it’s not just Tesla moving forward, but Toyota volume is starting to collapse.

Starting to really sink in to the larger population that ICE cars are obsolete. Might see some huge market shifts in 2024. Good chance the market for small-mid sized ICE cars is nearly wiped out completely in 2 years.

Toyota was hampered by chip supplies. They just released their Q4 earnings, which handily beat consensus and released next year guidance which had increasing sales and profits across all regions due to improving supplies.

This does sound fishy as the gains in Tesla volumes have to come from somewhere and the 3 / Y buyers have a significant overlap with the Toyota customers at the current price points. I think the backup from supply shortage and the sky high used car prices may be clouding the picture for these guys.

Toyota targets 10% profit jump, robust EV sales as chip woes recede

Toyota Motor Corp on Wednesday said it expects operating profit to climb 10% this business year, with a five-fold jump in pure electric vehicle (EV) sales amid an easing in global supply chain disruption from a shortage of chips.

www.reuters.com

 

[raffiniert]

Good chance the market for small-mid sized ICE cars is nearly wiped out completely in 2 years.

And that, my dear friends, is the reason why I invested in Tesla in the first place.
They always told me that I am foolish to put all my eggs in one basket.
I always told them that this one basket is important enough to me that if that basket fails, everything else doesn't matter.

"But your investment is gone" doesn't matter that much in a world where we pollute the environment until it's basically unhabitable.

Having the outcome we now have is great, of course. But not mainly from a financial perspective, albeit I have to say it's a nice addition

 

[Artful Dodger]

And that, my dear friends, is the reason why I invested in Tesla in the first place.
They always told me that I am foolish to put all my eggs in one basket.
I always told them that this one basket is important enough to me that if that basket fails, everything else doesn't matter.

Yup. Checkmate in 4 moves.

Sawyer Merritt on Twitter: "Tesla's four car factories across China, Germany, and the US are currently producing at an estimated run rate of over 2.1 million cars per year, and are on track to surpass BMW's global annual production run rate of 2.4 million by this summer. https://t.co/nmP75VwSS1" / Twitter​

Cheers to the Basket-Cases!

 

[hobbes]

Didn´t see this posted, analysis of IRA effect on Tesla (and others´) financials by Morgan Stanley - seems huge to me, they project EBIT up by roughly 70% from next year till the phase out at end of decade...

Source here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655992771436478485

 

[hobbes]

Supercharging gets cheaper in Europe:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656170684077293569

 

[Opus BC fan]

CPI 4.9% (down from 5.0%)

 

[Unpilot]

Someone in the 8:30 am crowd likes the Stonk.

Edit: Opus explains why.

 

[Cattledog]

Someone in the 8:30 am crowd likes the Stonk.

Edit: Opus explains why.

I'd like to imagine it's combo of a 10 basis point drop in CPI and some people woke up and read Adam Jonas' note, but I suspect it's because everyone's groceries will cost 10 cents less this month (and they imagine the Fed will now go on a summer vacation).

 

[Unpilot]

I'd like to imagine it's combo of a 10 basis point drop in CPI and some people woke up and read Adam Jonas' note, but I suspect it's because everyone's groceries will cost 10 cents less this month (and they imagine the Fed will now go on a summer vacation).

The thought of AJ's notes moving the SP makes me a little ill.

 

[FireMedic]

Supercharging gets cheaper in Europe:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656170684077293569

Good to see progress in some early mover nation states. I don’t see the great nation of California on that chart

It’s stupid expensive for gas here…but $.48/kw?! Hard to believe that we can’t do better. I have free charging on my car; but I’ve talked a lot of people into EV’s around here. Sometimes I feel like the savings from fuel will not be a worthwhile trade off for some

—Edit to add and answer a member question about home rates.

Our home rates are $.32 off peak and $.39 peak. My solar production sells to PGE at $.11.

It’s an absolute nightmare for PGE solar/ev customers here. Luckily I built a large and magnificent solar system; so annually I still only pay $500 for electricity. But the fact that I pay anything is truly absurd. Until I get batteries. They’re inbound. And they’re not tesla. That’s another story. China batteries are so cheap; for the diy guy tesla home batteries are a bit out of touch on pricing.

 

[SO16]

Good to see progress in some early mover nation states. I don’t see the great nation of California on that chart

It’s stupid expensive for gas here…but $.48/kw?! Hard to believe that we can’t do better. I have free charging on my car; but I’ve talked a lot of people into EV’s around here. Sometimes I feel like the savings from fuel will not be a worthwhile trade off for some

Hopefully their home rates are a bit better.

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Hopefully their home rates are a bit better.

Not much overhere I’m afraid. The ‘new normal’ is around €0.40/kWh.

Gas price is around €1.80/litre.

Big plus is that home solar is quite common here, among home owners were at more than 30% and we still have full net metering.

So solar plus EV is basically a no brainer.

 

[bkp_duke]

Didn´t see this posted, analysis of IRA effect on Tesla (and others´) financials by Morgan Stanley - seems huge to me, they project EBIT up by roughly 70% from next year till the phase out at end of decade...

View attachment 936411

Source here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655992771436478485

So in a nutshell . . . the IRA is indirectly funding the next 5-6 Gigafactories.

I can live with that.

 

[bkp_duke]

Good to see progress in some early mover nation states. I don’t see the great nation of California on that chart

It’s stupid expensive for gas here…but $.48/kw?! Hard to believe that we can’t do better. I have free charging on my car; but I’ve talked a lot of people into EV’s around here. Sometimes I feel like the savings from fuel will not be a worthwhile trade off for some

—Edit to add and answer a member question about home rates.

Our home rates are $.32 off peak and $.39 peak. My solar production sells to PGE at $.11.

It’s an absolute nightmare for PGE solar/ev customers here. Luckily I built a large and magnificent solar system; so annually I still only pay $500 for electricity. But the fact that I pay anything is truly absurd. Until I get batteries. They’re inbound. And they’re not tesla. That’s another story. China batteries are so cheap; for the diy guy tesla home batteries are a bit out of touch on pricing.

Even worse here. Peak up to 0.62/kwh down here in SDG&E territory.

If that "income based connectivity fee" actually comes to pass, I'm going to disconnect from the grid.

 

[FireMedic]

Even worse here. Peak up to 0.62/kwh down here in SDG&E territory.

If that "income based connectivity fee" actually comes to pass, I'm going to disconnect from the grid.

Whoaaaaa!!! I thought PGE was the devil. Oh wait, they are…

 

[Bobfitz1]

I don't think we'll see a significant change in the paint process (as teased by Tom Zhu for NextGen at Giga Monterrey). I am also quite sure we won't see the structure of the car changed significantly to allow the final GA step to be the joining of large, mostly complete modules. I think for now that GA will continue on a linear assembly line. But this will be the last iteration for that process. It's "unboxing the future" from here on out!

Curious why you believe they won't take advantage of the new state of the art paint shop they've installed in Giga Texas. At least to add the two or three new colors they introduced at Giga Berlin.

 

[GOVA]

Toyota was hampered by chip supplies. They just released their Q4 earnings, which handily beat consensus and released next year guidance which had increasing sales and profits across all regions due to improving supplies.

This does sound fishy as the gains in Tesla volumes have to come from somewhere and the 3 / Y buyers have a significant overlap with the Toyota customers at the current price points. I think the backup from supply shortage and the sky high used car prices may be clouding the picture for these guys.

Toyota targets 10% profit jump, robust EV sales as chip woes recede

Toyota Motor Corp on Wednesday said it expects operating profit to climb 10% this business year, with a five-fold jump in pure electric vehicle (EV) sales amid an easing in global supply chain disruption from a shortage of chips.

www.reuters.com

Chip supplies?

Toyota was hampered by its total inability to change, pumping their hybrid model like Disney is milking the Star Wars franchise. Toyota was purposely setting back itself and others with EVs by bribing, cheating and telling everybody that H is the fuel to go. Among other many things.

 

[GhostSkater]

They will have 4 miles of electric only travel

Holy *sugar* that's true

That poor battery, people worry about EV battery life but don't in hybrids that have a tiny pack that is screaming for it's life all the time

 

[bkp_duke]

This guy never learns his lesson:

Black ex-Tesla worker awarded $3.2 million in a racial harassment case is seeking a new trial, saying 'poisonous messaging' made proceedings unfair

Owen Diaz is seeking a new trial against Tesla over racial harassment claims after his payout was diminished from $137 million to only $3.2 million.

www.businessinsider.com

$137 mil judgement - slashed to $15 mil. Wasn't good enough for him, so he went back to court to go after Tesla for more, jury awarded him $3.2 mil. And the rumor on that judgement is that there was additional evidence that Tesla uncovered that would have likely essentially brought the judgement down to ZERO, but they were not allowed to introduce that evidence late in the trial. At a re-trial, that evidence would be fair game.

His lawyers must be foaming at the mouth, they are the only ones making out here.

 

[2daMoon]

Curious why you believe they won't take advantage of the new state of the art paint shop they've installed in Giga Texas. At least to add the two or three new colors they introduced at Giga Berlin.

Just a guess, but maybe it was because "no" was the response, when asked if those colors were coming to the US?