Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

I don't think someone with $1MM in $TSLA is actually looking for financial advice - i.e. troll?

Why ?

If you see "Fat Fire" sub-reddit ... you will see people with multiple of that amount asking for financial advice.

I've many, many friends and colleagues with much higher amounts in stocks who don't know the 101 of investing. They make money mostly of 401k / ESPP and might just move the money to one trendy stock based on a single advice from a friend.

 

[hobbes]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652534605441024001

Reveals a few things!

Like no Tesla sales outside US.. :/

 

[FireMedic]

What were you going to do if it goes down when you bought it for 297?. I mean who puts in almost a mil without a plan? Stonk only goes up is not a plan.

I stupidly did something similar with about half the $ amount. Had significant TSLA holdings but FOMO’d all in to nearly triple my holdings right before a big dip.

TBF I’m not gonna tell @smiththee what to do; just what I did (what not to do). I sold almost all my TSLA holdings (stop loss) and didn’t wait the full 30 days to buy back resulting in a wash sale. So, even though my new avg price was lower; I missed out capturing those losses for tax purposes. Resulting in a HEFTY tax bill and nearly identical share count.

No matter what you decide to do; don’t get caught in a wash sale. I don’t share this story because I’m proud of it; but to save someone from that same fate.

Obviously if I’d just held all the shares and played dead; my account would be in much better shape.

Good luck.

Edit to add:
This company attracts people (like me) who are not stock traders before and don’t really know how this stuff works…and with access to significant means (other assets), can get into a world of trouble. Especially if you add margin and derivatives which modern gamified brokerage platforms seem to be encouraging.

 

[betstarship]

I am going to put a link to something a little special on here. I saw that people already posted different links to it, but I did not see the members as a whole here thinking about it as this ant.

If you don't know who he is...well I am not going to even consider someone on here does not know who he is. If you don't just try and google him

MMM (Mr Money Mustache) Bought a Model Y. He goes into a well-written monologue on why he (a person that for as long as I can remember has suggested buying a secondhand car IF you really need a car at all), bought in his words " a spectacularly expensive, large luxury “crossover” that is absolutely loaded to the gills with excess: all wheel drive, faster acceleration than a Lamborghini, enough space for seven people and enough computer gadgetry to function as a small Google data center." This Frugal guru of the lifestyle of working, spending and investing.
The working/poor man's Warren Buffett bought a Model Y! Hundreds of thousands of people look to this guy as what they should be doing with their money. And they follow his writings even if they can't quite match his actions while they go through their financial path. But they/we read him because he is right, and he writes about his life and why in a way that is enjoyable and intelligent.

I better quit yakking..here it is...
The Model Y Experiment
Earmark it.
and when someone wants to know about Tesla EV's offer that site to them. Most of you are good with words, but I haven't seen the sledgehammer of honesty, thoughtfulness and writing-skill by any of us that he has shown.
He's gonna sell a helluva lot of Teslas. He can also help you/us lessen the tension between us and those we interact.

He didn't even put his referral link on the page

 

[Cosmacelf]

I stupidly did something similar with about half the $ amount. Had significant TSLA holdings but FOMO’d all in to nearly triple my holdings right before a big dip.

TBF I’m not gonna tell @smiththee what to do; just what I did (what not to do). I sold almost all my TSLA holdings (stop loss) and didn’t wait the full 30 days to buy back resulting in a wash sale. So, even though my new avg price was lower; I missed out capturing those losses for tax purposes. Resulting in a HEFTY tax bill and nearly identical share count.

No matter what you decide to do; don’t get caught in a wash sale. I don’t share this story because I’m proud of it; but to save someone from that same fate.

Obviously if I’d just held all the shares and played dead; my account would be in much better shape.

Good luck.

Edit to add:
This company attracts people (like me) who are not stock traders before and don’t really know how this stuff works…and with access to significant means (other assets), can get into a world of trouble. Especially if you add margin and derivatives which modern gamified brokerage platforms seem to be encouraging.

Great advice all around. When you get into the millions of investable dollars, it isn’t a bad idea to find competent outside help, even if only to help execute trades. I know everyone here likes their essentially free brokerage accounts, but the same oopsie with $3M hurts a lot more than with $5K.

My little story. I got myself an Interactive Broker account to “play around with”, and at the time was meant for professionals who knew what they were doing. I wired over a bunch of US$, and then bought a Canadian stock on the Toronto stock exchange. Due to incomprehensible monthly statements and my ignorance, it dawned on 8 months later that the platform has dutifully borrowed Canadian dollars for me on margin to buy the stock, leaving my US$ untouched, but charging me a nice interest rate.

And then there was the time I parlayed $20K into $300K in three months by currency spot trades (Essentially highly leveraged day trading). I left a couple of positions open when visitors came over for Christmas and when I got around to checking my account, found my account worth $10K due to automatic forced margin call sales. Never leave highly leveraged positions open if you aren’t paying attention!

 

[Thekiwi]

Reports on twitter (take that for what it’s worth) that GigaShanghai is shutdown for the week for the Labour day holidays.

Hopefully some retooling going on as well

 

[Singuy]

Reports on twitter (take that for what it’s worth) that GigaShanghai is shutdown for the week for the Labour day holidays.

Hopefully some retooling going on as well

Troy giving his 2 cents that this is demand related due to increased inventory in EU and he expects more production halts in the future. For context, he points to 2020 and 2021 when Tesla ignored most Chinese holidays. In 2022 Tesla was ordered to shut down in April due to Covid restrictions.

I believe Tesla is making it clear that they will honor most Chinese holidays now since the factory is done ramping production. During production ramp, Tesla will try to shut down as little as possible. I don't know why Troy is making it seem like Tesla must shut down and will do further shut downs due to inventory build up. This is a dumb take as no legacy auto shut down their factories ESPECIALLY when their days of inventory is under 1 month. Shutting down and spooling up factories without any reason is just lighting cash on fire.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Recessions and slowdowns tend to shine the light on real leaders with sustainable business models. Tesla is executing very well given what's happening in the world.

Imagine what's going to happen when the world is back in growth mode. I 100% agree with Musk. Now is the time to take market share at whatever the cost is. Screw margins. You go for the kill. Growth is all that matters.

There’s a facet to price cuts that I’m not reading anywhere.

Tesla are announcing to the market “you are now passing parity point”. For anybody watching and considering a brand new car, it simplifies their decision a great deal. They would need rocks in their head to buy a freshly made ICE that will have no resale value. The idea of an orderly transition from ICE to EV is bollocks, imo. Legacy’s demise is going to be sudden.

Corolla sales are plummeting. If we’re seeing the beginnings of the great ICE production crash of the 20s, Tesla’s price cuts deserve some credit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652636115122233345

 

[Singuy]

Cruise automation being homicidal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652772928025661440

 

[wtlloyd]

I stupidly did something similar with about half the $ amount. Had significant TSLA holdings but FOMO’d all in to nearly triple my holdings right before a big dip.

TBF I’m not gonna tell @smiththee what to do; just what I did (what not to do). I sold almost all my TSLA holdings (stop loss) and didn’t wait the full 30 days to buy back resulting in a wash sale. So, even though my new avg price was lower; I missed out capturing those losses for tax purposes. Resulting in a HEFTY tax bill and nearly identical share count.

No matter what you decide to do; don’t get caught in a wash sale. I don’t share this story because I’m proud of it; but to save someone from that same fate.

Obviously if I’d just held all the shares and played dead; my account would be in much better shape.

Good luck.

Edit to add:
This company attracts people (like me) who are not stock traders before and don’t really know how this stuff works…and with access to significant means (other assets), can get into a world of trouble. Especially if you add margin and derivatives which modern gamified brokerage platforms seem to be encouraging.

So, pretty much FAFO.
Can confirm.
Holding.

 

[generalenthu]

I stupidly did something similar with about half the $ amount. Had significant TSLA holdings but FOMO’d all in to nearly triple my holdings right before a big dip.

TBF I’m not gonna tell @smiththee what to do; just what I did (what not to do). I sold almost all my TSLA holdings (stop loss) and didn’t wait the full 30 days to buy back resulting in a wash sale. So, even though my new avg price was lower; I missed out capturing those losses for tax purposes. Resulting in a HEFTY tax bill and nearly identical share count.

No matter what you decide to do; don’t get caught in a wash sale. I don’t share this story because I’m proud of it; but to save someone from that same fate.

Obviously if I’d just held all the shares and played dead; my account would be in much better shape.

Good luck.

Edit to add:
This company attracts people (like me) who are not stock traders before and don’t really know how this stuff works…and with access to significant means (other assets), can get into a world of trouble. Especially if you add margin and derivatives which modern gamified brokerage platforms seem to be encouraging.

I believe the cost basis for the new shares is higher. So whenever you sell them, you will have lower taxes due. But do check with a tax advisor. A good brokerage should probably adjust the cost basis automatically for you.

 

[FireMedic]

I believe the cost basis for the new shares is higher. So whenever you sell them, you will have lower taxes due. But do check with a tax advisor. A good brokerage should probably adjust the cost basis automatically for you.

Right. Through E*TRADE, there is a toggle that you can turn on and off, which will show you the cost basis with and without the wash sale adjustments. That’s an incredibly painful toggle for me…, But a good reminder.

 

[Singuy]

Xpeng is saying they are not that much behind Tesla's FSD...and yet another example of their car wanting to smash into the wall.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652730226466758661

 

[Thekiwi]

Xpeng is saying they are not that much behind Tesla's FSD...and yet another example of their car wanting to smash into the wall.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652730226466758661

Plenty of videos of Tesla FSD trying to smash into things as well - not a helpful exercise to post these sort of videos, without the context of how often these events happen.

 

[Tony73]

That is the worst idea ever. Vertical farming does not even make sense on mars. Anyone that actually studies the problem scoffs at vertical farming. The fact that the Martian society figured that out with barely any effort goes to show that idiot ideas are hard to kill. Especially if a VC can pump and dump and make a buck.

Vertical farming or not, agricultural water usage in most of the world is extremely inefficient. Israel is at the forefront in this regard. They could teach the rest of the world a thing or two.

 

[smiththee]

thank you for sharing

I stupidly did something similar with about half the $ amount. Had significant TSLA holdings but FOMO’d all in to nearly triple my holdings right before a big dip.

TBF I’m not gonna tell @smiththee what to do; just what I did (what not to do). I sold almost all my TSLA holdings (stop loss) and didn’t wait the full 30 days to buy back resulting in a wash sale. So, even though my new avg price was lower; I missed out capturing those losses for tax purposes. Resulting in a HEFTY tax bill and nearly identical share count.

No matter what you decide to do; don’t get caught in a wash sale. I don’t share this story because I’m proud of it; but to save someone from that same fate.

Obviously if I’d just held all the shares and played dead; my account would be in much better shape.

Good luck.

Edit to add:
This company attracts people (like me) who are not stock traders before and don’t really know how this stuff works…and with access to significant means (other assets), can get into a world of trouble. Especially if you add margin and derivatives which modern gamified brokerage platforms seem to be encouraging.

i had this position since 2019, saw the shares spike to $400 and got greedy. I left a lot of money on the table by not selling but i guess no one really knows what will happen short term for a stock.

My gut feeling is this: high interest rates and a slow down in this economy will leave the entire 2023 quite choppy for tesla trading between $140 to $200. Next yr spring should be much better for tesla and 2025 should be even better. This is what elon musks says on the earnings call, so i take that as what it is

 

[UncaNed]

You can’t go to a forum and ask for valid individual financial advice. The answer depends on your personal situation. What are your sources of income, what expenses do you have? How old are you? How many dependents? Etc.

And no, this forum is not meant for dispensing such advice.

Disagreed because it appears that @smiththee can and did! And much to their benefit, is getting as good or better a discussion here as could be hoped for anywhere, which is why I live on this forum.

And I am thankful.

 

[UncaNed]

I don't think someone with $1MM in $TSLA is actually looking for financial advice - i.e. troll?

How much $$ you have in TSLA has nothing to do with if you'll ask for advice; in fact, that's probably what led them to have that first $1MM.

 

[nativewolf]

Vertical farming or not, agricultural water usage in most of the world is extremely inefficient. Israel is at the forefront in this regard. They could teach the rest of the world a thing or two.

Israel had to get efficient with water but you don't see Kibutz's running around putting vertical farming systems in Tel Aviv do you? Ag waste lots of water because it is cheap for ag to waste water. Which is all so incredibly off topic.

I'm a fan of Casey Handmer and his blog posts on solar needed to really impact global warming and the post on desalination are must reads if you wish to know more on the topics.

Casey Handmer's blog

Space, Travel, Technology, 3D Printing, Energy, Writing

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com

This is really far far afield of anything to do with Tesla as an investment, I'd suggest all this posts go into some global climate change...off far in the future stuff.

 

[UncaNed]

Switching more agriculture to vertical farming would save enough water to avoid most needs for desalination. This is also far more energy efficient and reduces fertilizer in the environment and our food.

I dunno about vertical farming, but INDOOR would certainly lower water use massively. I've been enamored of this ever since I read this:

National Geographic / This Tiny Country Feeds the World - InnovationQuarter

The Netherlands has become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like.

www.innovationquarter.nl