Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I dare you to say that to me in this thread tough guy!
Elon & Twitter
I do recommend that you take a snorkel because it stinks down there. Terribly sorry for that old boy.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Elon & Twitter
I do recommend that you take a snorkel because it stinks down there. Terribly sorry for that old boy.
Tesla today doesn’t have a backlog anywhere. Pretty much anyone can order any model and get it in 2 weeks. In mid 2022, the backlog was as high as 9 months. Demand has gone down dramatically (some of this is due to macros) and that’s why Tesla has resorted to deep price cuts to generate demand and also not increase production much (China Q1’23 production is less than Q4’22 production). If you just annualize Q4’22 production of 440K, that’s 1.76M or just about what Tesla guided to (1.8M)…so that’s almost close to zero total production increase. The issue here is not production. The issue here is demand. If there was demand, Tesla would have increased prices or at least not decrease by 20% (and there will be more price cuts this quarter and next in the US and Europe). In China, they already don’t make any margin, and sell the Model 3 RWD for a net loss, so probably no more price cuts there.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
I think that the market penetration for all social media apps is overestimated. There are countries listed in these surveys with over 100% participation. Just like with Twitter, a careful examination of any social media app would show large numbers of inactive accounts, duplicate accounts and bots. It a mirage designed to drum up advertising revenue.
That’s even more of a reason to utilize other platforms like Google search, TV, etc. The idea is to get across the message that Tesla has a far far superior product to everyone. This is what Apple does. Tesla is no longer production constrained. Demand is the issue. And the strategy to solve for demand issues can’t be just cut prices and sacrifice gross margin. Strategic advertising can increase the demand a lot for 1/10 of the cost of price cuts. A 2K price reduction across 1.5M units is $3B loss in revenue.
Krugerrand
Meow
Let’s not and say we did.
Nobody with half a brain and a clue has or is or will invest in TSLA based on whether or not some stranger named Troy on the Internet guesses correctly about a specific number that means diddly squat in the scheme of things.
The intelligent investors among us are waiting less than a week for some CFO dude named Zach, who actually works for Tesla, to tell them what ALL the numbers are, what they mean in the short term, what they mean in the long term, and what they’re all expected to be moving forward.
And the really cool part of it, we get Zach’s EXACT numbers for free!
Record rise in China's sea levels threatens coastal cities like Shanghai | CNN
Sea levels on China's coastline have hit their highest on record for the second year in a row, rising more quickly than the global average and posing a serious threat to coastal cities such as the financial hub of Shanghai.
www.cnn.com
Anyone have any knowledge whether this could impact Tesla Shanghai in any way in the future? Thanks.
Q1 2022 delivered vehicles were ordered mid 2021. I believe prices were similar to what they are now. I don't have time to look up ASP back then. Sales up over 30%. EPS really going to be lower than a year ago?
Of course. None of this matters for long term investors. We can just acknowledge things haven’t been great since Q3’22 and that’s the reality. No need to be in denial and sugarcoat and paint a rosy picture about the short term. It’s pretty bad and that’s ok. Things will change soon and everything will be awesome again once we get through this challenging period for the next few quarters.
Krugerrand
Meow
Sure, anything is possible. When? Your guess is as good as mine. The future is uncertain; that’s why Tesla exists.Record rise in China's sea levels threatens coastal cities like Shanghai | CNN
Sea levels on China's coastline have hit their highest on record for the second year in a row, rising more quickly than the global average and posing a serious threat to coastal cities such as the financial hub of Shanghai.
Anyone have any knowledge whether this could impact Tesla Shanghai in any way in the future? Thanks.
On a positive note, Tesla continues to derisk its business by building additional factories in other parts of the world.
Yes. GM in Q1’22 was at peak (30%). Best case, Tesla auto GM excl credits would be slightly above 20% for Q1’23. We are talking about a 30% reduction in GM.
See the headline on About | Tesla
Basic economics says that the lower the price the bigger the market.
Elon says again and again that the biggest hurdle to transition the world to sustainable energy is the cost of their products. No amount of marketing or advertising can lower the price of those products.
cliff harris
Member
This is the year that both the semi and the cybertruck enter production, and also the first proper year if the IRA in the US. The US tax incentives will massively boost demand, even if Tesla do nothing. And cybertruck production is a completely new market segment for Tesla, which will massively boost demand.
Plus there is just the ongoing background accumulation of demand that is generated by more people talking about EVs, more people knowing people who own an EV, more people seeing them on the streets, more people noticing where all the charging stations are, and so on.
Last year Tesla added another million unpaid advocates for the brand, who are driving billboards. There may come a point of market saturation for the 3 and Y but we are definitely not there yet. As long as Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, Jaguar and Porsche exist, there is plenty of potential more more sales of the S3XY lineup.
Krugerrand
Meow
*We* acknowledge no such thing and that’s the reality.
No need to make bs up. You’re not talking to members who joined in Sept 2020 and have contributed less than two dozen posts all in the last hour.
Go peddle your wares some place else. We’re not buying your cheap dollar store junk.The mission is to sell EVs. The mission is not to cut margins. If you can generate demand by advertising and sell products at a higher margin, that still accomplishes the mission, and gives more money for new investments. In parallel, Tesla can continue to introduce lower cost platforms (gen3, etc) and increase TAM.
LOL. I am someone who did a 100x on TSLA and an extremely passionate Tesla advocate. One can be a huge Tesla fan and still live in reality as opposed to fantasy.*We* acknowledge no such thing and that’s the reality.
No need to make bs up. You’re not talking to members who joined in Sept 2020 and have contributed less than two dozen posts all in the last hour.
How do you figure they don't have a backlog? My neighbor ordered his Model Y 1/25 and still doesn't have a VIN. There is a whole thread of people that ordered around that time still waiting for delivery.
Look, after the big price cuts I have some worries too about Tesla’s financials, worries I expressed yesterday in the quarterly earnings thread. But I received some constructive feedback, which I took to heart and which laid to rest some of my worries. I’d suggest the ‘low post members’ who decided to chime in today also keep an open mind. It’s fine to express your doubts, less so to keep hammering away at it all day long.
See the estimated delivery date that Tesla shows when you try to place an order. Almost every model in most major geographies are showing same month delivery (April) or same quarter (April to June) delivery. Nothing is going to Q3. Some of my friends ordered in the last few months, and they all got within a few weeks. There is more than sufficient production now. The issue is demand and that’s why Tesla is forced to cut prices. Tesla is not stupid to cut prices if there was more than enough demand at a particular price point (they will actually increase prices as we have seen before).
MountainRatMat
Member
I think the point is...can Tesla make up the hit to ASP in volume? I guess we'll find out next week.
You also have to remember that there are so many other factors that affect GM, not just ASP. With Berlin and Austin actually producing cars now instead of burning cash that improves the outlook.
I really have no idea who is correct but I do know there are a lot of factors of influence and we won't know how well Tesla is doing until earnings are released.
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