JRP3
Hyperactive Member
They have already started the shift to EV production without lengthy down times. Large factories with multiple vehicle lines can transition in stages.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Presumably they would raze the buildings and build new whatevers. Basically just land value. Fremont shows the problem with trying to convert ICE to BEV.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Thats what I was thinking - "upgrading" existing factories to produce EVs is a LOT faster than building new ones (from regulatory perspective). So use the common infrastructure like building, power, water etc - but build new lines / machinery within the building. They could even reuse painting shops etc.
BYD maybe..
But wow, with Toyota still pushing hybrids and now this from Volkswagen, it seems like a tipping point to me. I never really wholeheartedly believed that some major car companies would pretty much collapse, but seems to become more likely year after year...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Exactly. An EV is not all that different from an ICE in structure, I don't know why some seem to think you need a different building to produce them.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Problem is that Tesla has shown us that converting old ICE factories to BEV is not the most efficient way to go.
Look at how inefficient Fremont is compared to Shanghai. The work and materials sourcing input flows are not the same..
Will it work? Yes. Will it have the same output per man hour as Tesla? Highly doubtful.
I can see people make a case at 15k, but paying 5k for what Tesla is delivering today is WAY above what you get vs the industry, but is short of Elon's promise. I mean the driver assest package you buy from other manufactures are just pure trash. They limit you where it can be used, runs into stop cars, disable or just runs you off the road at a light curve, and can't do any of the advance functions FSD can do besides ping ponging between two lanes markers in a straight line. Top it all off, it is not OTA upgradable so you are stuck with what you have or go to the dealer and wait 5hrs.
And those systems are not free either, in which you can only get it by buying higher trim packages first before you are allowed to upgrade to the advanced driver assistant packages. So perhaps you can blame Elon for upselling FSD with his grand promise, but for 5k it was a bargain.
The only true competitor to FSD beta is what you get from Waymo/Cruise as features are close enough to be compared. Yes, Waymo is way more reliable in their pre-programmed area, but the car comes with over 100k worth of software/hardware and a team of engineers fixing every little problem on the fly. Not only that, it's not commercially available for purchase and due to it's limited geofencing, it's doesn't work beyond those areas. So it only works 0.001% of US roads even if it's available to purchase.
So yeah, it's pretty difficult to make a case that you were gipped 5K. You can be in the "well I wouldn't have spent 5k if I am not allowed to make 100k/year as a Tesla robotaxi according to Elon" camp but that's probably not a reasonable position to take.
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There were some very specific claims made during Autonomy Day 2019 that were used to push FSD, with robotaxis to be enabled in 2020 (pending regulatory approval), many snippets of these have been circulating around the AI subforum
Don't know, I think Tesla's butt is pretty covered but these claims from Autonomy Day are probably the biggest risk I can see. And it wasn't even that many years ago.
Yes, but they can reuse the building, the workers, stamping presses, the bodyshop robots, and paintshops.
The temptation is to make EVs with only small changes to body shape and a lot of the existing ICE GA parts to save time and money.
The problems with a compromised design can be higher costs, less efficent, dated asthethics, overall not an appealing car.
I would reuse the factory becuase otherwise they are laying off a lot of workers in one location and hiring in a new location, or asking workers to move. But I would avoid the compromised design, Do an EV specific design with new tooling.
philw1776
Member
One argument for Tesla letting existing owners move their FSD to a new car or with let's say a $10K credit for buying new FSD is that they sell the new HW. At Tesla's margins stated here that is a good thing. Only reason not to, and it is the present reason, is they're selling all they can build anyway.
Lumber -63%
I knew it was fake AF back then. So, eggs are the new lumber?I disagree. They did show their 'expert' 'analyzing' this which basically says "stay away from our new tech analytics". At least to me it does.
Why am I reminded of an Ant Hill after it is (accidentally) stepped upon?
I am buying used next time. Mine is down $50k.
This is about not having the luxury of taking 3 years and putting up new buildings before they finally get around to production - it is also acknowledgement that they need to conserve cash now for their impending years in the wilderness which they will be having before they can regain market share. If they don't prepare now for the worst, they will come out of the fire as a chicken briquette rather than a phoenix.
Europe has literally banned new ICE passenger vehicles being sold in 12 years time. All the ICE factories are going to be worthless as ICE factories soon, so makes complete sense that VW will convert them all to EV Manufacturing, keeping the very valuable permits and consents in place, as well as reusing large amounts of the plant & equipment (paint shop, stamping, robots etc) & trained workforce. Fremont itself was a ICE factory when Tesla purchased it.
It hurts on paper when you think about it, but it’s the same car you thought was a good value when you paid for it. Maybe you sold TSLA at $300 at the time, instead of $200 now. It felt good when the prices kept going up after ordering my MY, but today, not so much.
I'd say "Aggregator" (term penned by Ben Thompson of Stratechery fame), there wouldn't be an EV market without Tesla. This is from Ark-Invest's 2023 Big Ideas (page 101). Hopefully, 2024's report shows this same chart with a lot more colors and across different vehicle types.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
My POINT - a "factory" is not a "factory" per se. Can they be converted? YES. Will they be as efficient as a ground-up design? Not a chance in hell.
Tesla's GF Berlin will likely be able to produce 2-3X the cars from the same floorspace.
As Elon keeps telling us, it's the machine that builds the machine. Tesla is on version 3.0. VW is retrofitting version 1.0.
I understand WHY VW is doing this (it's an easy sell to the Board and shareholders). But from a long-term vision play, it's not nearly as efficient, and that lack of efficiency against a HYPER-EFFICIENT player like Tesla is not going to work out well long-term.
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