Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tigerkc]

I just rented a model 3 from San Diego, from Budget. One of the cheapest options, rented via Costco.

How did you pay for charging, if you charged at the Superchargers?

 

[petit_bateau]

Juste parce que c'est toi:

Not entirely surprisingly, I feel addressed and extremely motivated to put your suggestion into action. I urgently need the Cybertruck for the club as a yacht tug for the "petits bateaux et les pas si petits". Then I would not have to rely on our present machineletts.



View attachment 904412

Here in Germany, the Cybertruck should be legally roadworthy without homologation through individual approval. A bit more expensive, but not unusual, as I have learned. Soon I'll be looking into setting up a cybertruck import and operating association - maybe we'll get tax-exempt non-profit status

Merci beaucoup. That is super. Our sailing club uses these Trailer Hoists - Tractor Drawn boat trailers for use on slipways and around the boatyard . With luck one day we will have an electric tractor as the tug.

I've had to do individual approval of a car in the EU twice, such are the joys of owning an old Alfa. Oh, and a trailer into Germany once, what an experience that was. For a vehicle that will cost as much as a Tesla Cybertruck (especially after small-quantity shipping + 25% import tariff + VAT) I don't think the individual approval will be too expensive in relative terms. However that will depend on what specific requirements that Tesla chose not to comply with, and how meticulous the technical revision (inspection) team are in examining the vehicle. On all three occasions (Germany, France, Spain) I found that the inspections / checks were extremely thorough - absolutely scrutinising by the book on each occasion. The first one should be fun.

 

[larmor]

I thought they charged a premium for EVs.

I guess the reduction in maintenance costs is making itself known. We’ve said for a long time these are great advertising, having them be the cheap option makes it even more of a plus.

It was-- in the past year via Hertz at SFO, the tesla model 3 was always listed as premium and price for rental reflected it.

 

[larmor]

How did you pay for charging, if you charged at the Superchargers?

I will find out today-- Budget says they cover the cost of charging. and there is a huge super charger station at the mall in El Centro.

 

[Hiline]

You can count me in the camp that thinks this market rally is setting up to have it's rug pulled out from under it. I commented a few days ago, of the stocks in my watchlist, none of them are posting earnings and/or giving guidance that supports their current P/E multiples. To expect these stocks to continue expanding their PE when growth is minimal is so unrealistic that I can't help but laugh.

And this is coming from someone who thinks we will in fact have a soft landing and/or mild recession. I've thought that all along. But I just don't see anyone is expecting the market to expand PE multiples on the back of earnings and guidance so far. Definitely don't think the market will put in new low's, but I do see a decent reversal soon.

I'm in the same camp. Short term, there should be a reversal once higher interest rates manifest in lower corporate profit. But I think in about a year or two the stock market will reach a new high once the soft landing is confirmed.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't have a margin account. But living in the UK I'm unsure whether my shares can be 'lent' out for shorting. As I understand it, my broker (Hargreaves Lansdown) doesn't hold the shares directly as they are based outside the US and so the shares are packaged in a CDI (CREST Depositary Interest), which I think means they are held “in nominee” (i.e. in the name of a subsidiary of the broker that holds stocks on my behalf). Does anyone know if the subsidiary can still lend out the shares that are held on my behalf?

My suspicion is that the UK brokerages use US nominees, and that those nominees do engage in lending-out. But unlike in the USA (where the broker shares the lending fee income stream with the client) the UK brokers do not pass on any lending fee income. So they neither ask our permission nor share the loot. I've yet to be able to nail this one down (paging @unk45 who may know for sure). However I do see on my broker's blurb that their UK clients actively trade TSA, with it as their most active US stock.

 

[Tim S]

How did you pay for charging, if you charged at the Superchargers?

I rented a Model 3 from Hertz last year in Florida. When I used a supercharger, I could just plug in and charge. Hertz charged my credit card a few weeks later.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I'm in the same camp. Short term, there should be a reversal once higher interest rates manifest in lower corporate profit. But I think in about a year or two the stock market will reach a new high once the soft landing is confirmed.

I think we're very much going to be in a post Dot.com crash scenario (2000-2007) where the index's are flat year after year. I doubt it will take nearly as long for the macro's to get back to their highs (took 7 years from the 2000 crash) but I could easily see the next 3-4 years being a slow drawn out process to get back to the highs. I think the Fed pivots to cutting rates in the 2nd half of this year but it's still going to take quite a long time for the Fed rates to get back down to the point where it justifies meaningful multiple expansion from these levels.

Next 5 years is going to be all about choosing the correct sectors and individual stocks within those sectors. The days of just buying practically anything post 2008 and having it go up pretty much non-stop are over for quite a long time.

 

[MikeC]

Literally the exact peak to the minute. This guy is the worst.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623017996699443202

 

[ggies07]

So Jeff believes in making the right chemistry for 50-100 year lasting batteries with no recycling, but doesn't that contradict what JB is doing with Redwood Materials and the partnership with Tesla? Eventually, there would be no need for Redwood or companies like that then, but JB has this philosophy of mining once for all the material needed and then creating a circled economy.

So is recycling the middle man here and the right approach is Jeff's? Seems like two different ways of addressing the same problem...which is the better path?

 

[Usain]

So Jeff believes in making the right chemistry for 50-100 year lasting batteries with no recycling, but doesn't that contradict what JB is doing with Redwood Materials and the partnership with Tesla? Eventually, there would be no need for Redwood or companies like that then, but JB has this philosophy of mining once for all the material needed and then creating a circled economy.

So is recycling the middle man here and the right approach is Jeff's? Seems like two different ways of addressing the same problem...which is the better path?

Both.

 

[Ogre]

So Jeff believes in making the right chemistry for 50-100 year lasting batteries with no recycling, but doesn't that contradict what JB is doing with Redwood Materials and the partnership with Tesla? Eventually, there would be no need for Redwood or companies like that then, but JB has this philosophy of mining once for all the material needed and then creating a circled economy.

So is recycling the middle man here and the right approach is Jeff's? Seems like two different ways of addressing the same problem...which is the better path?

View attachment 904432

Tesla can make billion mile packs and recycling will still be relevant.

• Tesla buys third party cells from other manufacturers and will for some time.
• Accidents happen and damaged packs will likely need to be recycled.
• Rust, floods, road salts, idiots who drive into the lake… water damage is bad.
• Testing and quality control only go so far and some packs will fail.
• Other car makers exist for the moment. Likely other battery makers will exist for a long time.
• Someone will need to be prepared to recycle Tesla’s packs until they get that billion mile pack complete.

The bigger question in my mind is what happens to the vehicle husk?

If the battery lasts millions of miles, we’re going to have lots of vehicles with completely blown out interiors and trashed paint. Do we get specialized restorers who tear down and rehabilitate old Teslas? Seems like a natural role for mechanics to slide into once ICE vehicle repairs becomes obsolete. Suspension, seats, body work, will all need some love.

 

[unk45]

My suspicion is that the UK brokerages use US nominees, and that those nominees do engage in lending-out. But unlike in the USA (where the broker shares the lending fee income stream with the client) the UK brokers do not pass on any lending fee income. So they neither ask our permission nor share the loot. I've yet to be able to nail this one down (paging @unk45 who may know for sure). However I do see on my broker's blurb that their UK clients actively trade TSA, with it as their most active US stock.

As usual in US securities practice what seems logical is not always so. Without quoting the rules there are 'rules of thumb' that apply:
Generally beneficial owners are the parties that can lend securities, while broker-dealers generally are the only ones which can borrow securities. Generally institutional shareholders allow their custodians to lend their shares and receive compensation for that. Individual shareholders can participate also if their securities are registered to them. However, if the individual has a margin account nearly all brokers have very fine print giving the power to lend their securities because the client does then not own the shares free free and clear.

As usual the deck is tilted to institutions rather than individuals.
If anyone really wants to know the arcane rules, several of us, including me, can provide all the excruciating detail. Finally, as someone (@Artful Dodger?) recently pointed out. Broker dealers can sell shares they do not own 'Naked Short' and sequentially move the position from dealer to dealer in order to avoid ever reporting the position. Once in a very long while the 'musical chairs' stop and some hapless participant goes broke, usually by being absorbed by another one with minimal fanfare.

In rare cases an individual can explicitly give permission to lend their shares and receive compensation for so doing. That does exists and does happen but it is not the norm. That happens in order to assert that retail investors are beneficiaries also.

Specific references are available if desired. Much of these processes are stated in Depository Trust Company procedures, which are written to obfuscate, not elucidate.

This is one of the less obscure discussions, written for what Elon rightfully has called ' Shortsellers Enrichment Commission:

https://www.sec.gov/comments/4-590/4590-16.pdf

 

[Moon Buggy]

Model Y inventory in the US now down to 2 cars (plus duplicates).

We got a blue seven seater in Honolulu and a black 5 seater in Sacramento. Get 'em while they're hot. Not sure why we wouldn't see another price raise imminently.

 

[Nocturnal]

Model Y inventory in the US now down to 2 cars (plus duplicates).

We got a blue seven seater in Honolulu and a black 5 seater in Sacramento. Get 'em while they're hot. Not sure why we wouldn't see another price raise imminently.

Former co-worker just called me "hey, do you have a minute to talk about tesla?"
"I always have time to talk Tesla." -me

He is buying a lightly used SR 3 it seems. One more member of the cult incoming.

 

[UncaNed]

Correct. In the past people changed their posts to "win" an argument, so there is now only a limited time to edit.

Not for us Red-level TMC supporters; we get 12 hours to edit. Details on the red SUPPORT TMC link on the bottom of the pages. (it's fun winning more arguments.)

 

[Ogre]

Former co-worker just called me "hey, do you have a minute to talk about tesla?"
"I always have time to talk Tesla." -me

He is buying a lightly used SR 3 it seems. One more member of the cult incoming.

Living rural, we rarely get drive ups to our house, it’s down a long driveway and pretty bold of them to come back here, but for the first time in 5 years we had some knocking on my door. They were asking to come in and talk about some religious thing. Now your post brings up memories of that conversation.

Maybe next time I hear:

“Do you have a few minutes to talk about _______?” (insert religious figure of your choice).

I’ll respond to them with “Yes, but let me tell you about Elon Musk and Tesla first…”

If you are standing in my driveway, you’d better be prepared to talk about my car.

Note to self: Print up brochures.

 

[AndrewZ]

Model Y inventory in the US now down to 2 cars (plus duplicates).

We got a blue seven seater in Honolulu and a black 5 seater in Sacramento. Get 'em while they're hot. Not sure why we wouldn't see another price raise imminently.

Why we wouldn't see another imminently -- possibly because we don't have clarity on what will change in the tax incentives when the Treasury provides guidance on the battery components and critical minerals. Likely in most cases the credit is being reduced by half, perhaps fully removed depending on what the guidance looks like and which batteries can hit the required percentages. Maybe MSRP will go up $3,750 and then a discount will be offered to offset the loss of the tax credit.

Who knows how many orders are already backlogged at the lower prices and people assuming they'll receive the vehicle in time to get the full $7500

 

[MC3OZ]

OK, so what does that mean in terms of Cybertruck meeting EU regulations?

Do any similar vechicles meet them?

Most of the time in a bad pedestrian collision the pedestrian is supposted to travel over the car bonnet.

In a minor pedestrian collision mostly stopping fast avoids a bad result.

Nothing suggests to me that a Cybertruck will be slow to stop,

It will need testing, and Cybertruck might need some modifications

 

[Unpilot]

OK, so what does that mean in terms of Cybertruck meeting EU regulations?

I was in ground school once for a new aircraft and the discussion went way off into the weeds...as this one has.

The thought occurred to me then that seems appropriate here.....

"We are knee deep it the who gives a s**t territory "