Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Bullish. Dan Ives worried about demand the last time in 2019, right before TSLA went on a multi-year bull run and Model 3 and Model Y became best sellers:

Tesla’s latest challenge is finding new customers for the Model 3

With the $35,000 Model 3 still not for sale, the company is turning to Europe and China

www.theverge.com

This has been the media's story and the brokerage analysts' story since TSLA went public, that there was no demand for electric cars. The more Tesla would sell, analysts would say they thought Tesla had reached the limit of demand for their cars. And it's an easy way to spread FUD because there is no good way to measure demand except through past sales.

So, who do we believe, the guy at Tesla who has been right about demand all along, or the short-sighted brokerage analysts who have been wrong every single time they raise the upcoming "demand problem".

View attachment 889618

Tesla delivered about 63,000 cars in Q1 2019, in Q3 2022 Tesla delivered about 344,000 cars and at a much higher ASP and the increase alone between Q3 to Q4 this year will probably be greater than all the cars produced in Q1 2019, the last time Dan Ives brought up worries of demand. These analysts simply don't understand how EV's are disrupting ICE sales and how adoption curves work. Tesla entered the high-end market in 2012 with a sedan called the Model S. Analysts said it was a mistake because sedans have low market share that is shrinking. Then Tesla entered the mid-priced segment with a sedan, the Model 3. Again, analysts said this was a big mistake for the same reason, low demand for sedans. The middle of next year Tesla has announced they will begin mass production of a pickup truck, a market that is huge in N. America. Analysts say they are worried about demand because it's too different from traditional pickups (even though Tesla already has over 2 million deposits for a Cybertruck). Elon says he thinks it will be their best product yet.

Who do you believe? The problem all along has been not enough supply, not too little demand.

Some facts and posts worthy of a BEV Museum someday. Imagine a walk through museum covering the complete EV transition battle, with historic vehicles, media posts of the times showing both sides of the ongoing mess, with "facts" this time. The Elon statue comes later on after the protests and a vote.

 

[wipster]

The fact that the stock has gone so long without any sort of relief rally means shorts/hedge fund would have to be insanely confident that Q4 P/D numbers are going to come in bad and cause further selling pressure. The odds are much more stacked for the Q4 P/D numbers to be the catalyst for a brief short term relief rally back up to 140-150 before shorts/hedge funds step back in a week or two before earnings to drive the stock back down to these levels with non-stop FUD about margins/net income collapsing on Q4 earnings.

At which point, the short to medium term direction of the stock will ultimately be decided by Tesla's earnings and guidance. Q4 earnings will decide whether this was the bottom or if there's further downside to come. I also think there's a fairly good chance that we see a refreshed "cheaper" Model 3 announced either on the P/D report or on Q4 earnings.

Q4 earnings perhaps, but the P/D report is just numbers, doubt there will be any comments.

 

[SarahsDad]

I'm not a tesla investor, but wonder, is there anyone still hodling tsla?

Well, I started buying in 2013 and still haven’t sold a single share (yes it helps that I’m still working and spend less than I make).

I posted this almost 2 1/2 years ago about holding through the down times if it’s a company you believe in. And despite the huge scary drop we’ve seen recently, I feel the same way now as I did then. And the stock is higher now than it was then.

I thought I was pretty smart buying TSLA in May 2013. By the time I'd picked up my P85+ in September of that year, it was up 90%!

But after underwhelming Q3 earnings and 3 Tesla fires, it dropped over 35% by the end of November. I seriously considered selling it all.

View attachment 571354

Good thing I was already driving a Tesla and therefore knew what many people didn't yet, that Tesla was about to disrupt the entire industry (if they could stay in business). So I decided to HODL .

View attachment 571355

Good thing I did.

So to all those concerned about the short term dip - don't be. I'm even more bullish now (because I think Tesla is a way more sustainable company now) than I was in 2013.

HODL.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The fact that the stock has gone so long without any sort of relief rally means shorts/hedge fund would have to be insanely confident that Q4 P/D numbers are going to come in bad and cause further selling pressure. The odds are much more stacked for the Q4 P/D numbers to be the catalyst for a brief short term relief rally back up to 140-150 before shorts/hedge funds step back in a week or two before earnings to drive the stock back down to these levels with non-stop FUD about margins/net income collapsing on Q4 earnings.

At which point, the short to medium term direction of the stock will ultimately be decided by Tesla's earnings and guidance. Q4 earnings will decide whether this was the bottom or if there's further downside to come. I also think there's a fairly good chance that we see a refreshed "cheaper" Model 3 announced either on the P/D report or on Q4 earnings.

Ya, but in case... careful not to sell too much during the spike. It might only pull back to a midpoint before the earnings... and so on. Only needs a catalyst here and there - hopefully the plan seeing as lots of new tech coming at once. So Tesla... tell me something, then a little more in about a week.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q4 earnings perhaps, but the P/D report is just numbers, doubt there will be any comments.

I tend to agree. Though I do think there's a decent chance that they announce an early earnings date of Jan 16th, 17th. or 18th, especially if they have a refreshed model 3 to show. The last two P/D reports, Tesla has announced the earnings date. I expect them to do the same this time as well

Ya, but in case... careful not to sell too much during the spike. It might only pull back to a midpoint before the earnings... and so on. Only needs a catalyst here and there - hopefully the plan seeing as lots of new tech coming at once. So Tesla... tell me something, then a little more in about a week.

Elon has been one man wrecking ball for the stock, but I do think his bullishness and lack of care for his Twitter actions is a telling sign about what Tesla is going to be posting for earnings in January. I think there will be a number of very positive things in the earnings and on the call. I expect Tesla to announce guidance for 2023 along with price cuts around the world (even slight one in US) while maintaining margins. This will be due to currency tailwinds in Q4 and going into 2023 instead of headwinds which was the case in Q2 and especially Q3. I expect them to say that COGS are seeing dramatic declines and that they expect to pass through those savings to the consumer while maintaining gross margins. I expect them to give Energy 2023 guidance including margin guidance. I think practically no one is modeling that despite price cuts, now that FSD is in wide release in the US, margins in the US are shielded a material way.

We'll find out in mid Jan. I think earnings are either good enough to bottom the stock or earnings are game changer that cause a rather violent rally to the upside.

 

[15Peter20]

TSLA in green
i never thought the day would come
okay, i am no longer mad at Elon
i hope he stays CEO for another 30 years

Yes. I hear he has moved to the far left.

 

[carterm2]

(not a finance guy, just looking at the dynamic)

1. Idea I am trying to resolve...

$TSLA share selling accelerated by margin buyers but it is possible that > % buying on margin, bought >$100.


2. Question: Does Dark Pool money affect the stock?


Short interest by volume is very high for Tesla because of large float, but...

Short Interest seems to be dominated in Dark Pool (I may be misreading this, please correct)

Short Interest	shares - source: NASDAQ
Short Interest Ratio	0.41 Days to Cover
Short Interest % Float	2.72% - source: NASDAQ (short interest), Capital IQ (float)
Off-Exchange Short Volume	52,889,123 shares - source: FINRA (inc. Dark Pool volume)
Off-Exchange Short Volume Ratio	44.89% - source: FINRA (inc. Dark Pool volume)
Finpedia Article	Tesla Motors

"https://fintel.io/ss/us/tsla"

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

TSLA Off Exchange & Dark Pool Summary​

Today's Off Exchange & Dark Pool volume is 91,476,369, which is 57.98% of today's total volume.
Today's Lit volume is 66,289,482, which is 42.02%.
Over the past 30 days, the average Off Exchange & Dark Pool volume has been 52.76%.
The average Lit volume has been 47.24%.

"TSLA Dark Pool Statistics | ChartExchange"

 

[SOULPEDL]

I tend to agree. Though I do think there's a decent chance that they announce an early earnings date of Jan 16th, 17th. or 18th, especially if they have a refreshed model 3 to show. The last two P/D reports, Tesla has announced the earnings date. I expect them to do the same this time as well


Elon has been one man wrecking ball for the stock, but I do think his bullishness and lack of care for his Twitter actions is a telling sign about what Tesla is going to be posting for earnings in January. I think there will be a number of very positive things in the earnings and on the call. I expect Tesla to announce guidance for 2023 along with price cuts around the world (even slight one in US) while maintaining margins. This will be due to currency tailwinds in Q4 and going into 2023 instead of headwinds which was the case in Q2 and especially Q3. I expect them to say that COGS are seeing dramatic declines and that they expect to pass through those savings to the consumer while maintaining gross margins. I expect them to give Energy 2023 guidance including margin guidance. I think practically no one is modeling that despite price cuts, now that FSD is in wide release in the US, margins in the US are shielded a material way.

We'll find out in mid Jan. I think earnings are either good enough to bottom the stock or earnings are game changer that cause a rather violent rally to the upside.

I do wonder why he seemed to tank the stock as if part of the plan. Could it be that there was too much leverage on the stock in both directions, and he helped clear it all out? (I've still got a few singed eyebrows there myself.) As if our insane # of leaps were just as problematic to the money system as the Shortz. Leave it to me for crazy theories, but this all feels part of the plan.

Greater good approach to our most difficult problems. He brings countries together after all. Maybe that rubs off at home eventually.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I do wonder why he seemed to tank the stock as if part of the plan. Could it be that there was too much leverage on the stock in both directions, and he helped clear it all out? (I've still got a few singed eyebrows there myself.) As if our insane # of leaps were just as problematic to the money system as the Shortz. Leave it to me for crazy theories, but this all feels part of the plan (else he's a Sociopath and we both have HPD).

Greater good approach to our most difficult problems. He brings countries together after all. Maybe that rubs off at home eventually.

I think Occam's Razor is best applied here. Elon just doesn't care about the stock price beyond a certain point (I don't know what that point is, but I'm confident it's at $150 or above for right now). Look no further than how he dumps stock on the open market, or his statements about the stock price being too high, or how he's not going to withhold his views just to pump the stock, etc. And I think he goes out of his way to say certain things as a way of showing that he doesn't care.

 

[MXWing]

(else he's a Sociopath and we both have HPD).

As I've mentioned earlier Elon does not care about any individuals. The only thing that matters is HIS MISSION. All else is expendable. He founded a school for his kids. Once his kids graduated, he shuttered it. The kids younger than his kids were SOL (including mine). It's realistically fractions of pennies on the dollar for him to maintain the school but since it serves no purpose to him, he didn't spend another second of thought on it.

I can confidently say we can count on Elon trying to have Tesla execute as best as it can.

TSLA price however, he DGAF. If you used options or leverage, he DGAF even less than his typical DGAF. Hell he basically said Tesla stock is too high to deflect his adventures and essentially told the market to move money to TBills and other guaranteed returns.

I think Occam's Razor is best applied here. Elon just doesn't care about the stock price beyond a certain point (I don't know what that point is, but I'm confident it's at $150 or above for right now). Look no further than how he dumps stock on the open market, or his statements about the stock price being too high, or how he's not going to withhold his views just to pump the stock, etc. And I think he goes out of his way to say certain things as a way of showing that he doesn't care.

I think you are quite astute for having not having met Elon personally. You are 100% correct.

 

[EVNow]

I'm not a tesla investor, but wonder, is there anyone still hodling tsla? The way I see it, one can easily double the money (or number of stocks) by selling now and getting back in at 50% and the way the overall markets are going, it seems likely.

You know there is no such thing as risk-free money ...

 

[generalenthu]

Redonkulous volume day. Looks like we will be blowing all the recent high volume days off the water.

 

[thesmokingman]

Man, these clowns on CNBC are ridonkulous. For weeks they've been disparaging tech stocks, wouldn't touch with ten foot pole. Then now they act like why are ppl not buying tech stocks? Omg?

 

[ElectricIAC]

You know there is no such thing as risk-free money ...

No risk.
No reward.

 

[ElectricIAC]

Man, these clowns on CNBC are ridonkulous. For weeks they've been disparaging tech stocks, wouldn't touch with ten foot pole. Then now they act like why are ppl not buying tech stocks? Omg?

They spent all this time driving them down, it makes sense they would try to pump it after buying in.

Allegedly.

 

[Ogre]

I think Occam's Razor is best applied here. Elon just doesn't care about the stock price beyond a certain point (I don't know what that point is, but I'm confident it's at $150 or above for right now). Look no further than how he dumps stock on the open market, or his statements about the stock price being too high, or how he's not going to withhold his views just to pump the stock, etc. And I think he goes out of his way to say certain things as a way of showing that he doesn't care.

Another way of looking at it.

Musk is concerned about long term shareholders and Tesla the company and nothing else. Align yourself to that and his interests and yours will always be aligned.

People looking for 4D chess in the short term should keep in mind most of the awesome things Musk has done revolve around 5-10 year plans and bumps along the way are inevitable. I‘m pretty sure he does care that the current rut has damaged shareholders, but by the time it got so deep it had momentum of it’s own.

 

[ZsoZso]

Not only that, but this also isn't even a half-truth or a "white lie", Elon has been 100% correct about "first money in, last money out". He has come nowhere near cashing out his initial investment, his holdings have been growing over the years because he's been paid in stock options. He has to sell some of them to get his salary out in a form that he can spend, this is not his initial investment of millions of dollars, it's his paycheck. Yet his detractors criticize him with the false claim that he lied when he said, "first money in, last money out".

You must have done some very interesting and impressive mathematical gymnastics to believe the statements that I have put in bold above.
Uncle Leo has recently tweeted that Elon has sold about $35 billion worth in the past year or so, I have not kept a tally, so don't know if that is accurate but it has to be somewhere in the ballpark considering the amount he invested in the company not to be named plus the amount he sold last year for paying "more tax than anyone ever in the US". As for how much his initial investment (or total investment) into Tesla I doubt it was more than 10% of that amount. So, in my math he has already cashed out at least 10x his investments from Tesla.

Sure, he worked hard over many years and deserves compensation for that and he made the company successful so he can enjoy high return on his investments, that's all good. But that does not make your statements about his investment true...

ps: just Googled to find out that he got about $180 million from sale of Paypal, and that is what he invested initially into Tesla and SpaceX, which means his cash-out is more than 100x his initial Tesla investment, I was off by an order of magnitude.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think Occam's Razor is best applied here. Elon just doesn't care about the stock price beyond a certain point (I don't know what that point is, but I'm confident it's at $150 or above for right now). Look no further than how he dumps stock on the open market, or his statements about the stock price being too high, or how he's not going to withhold his views just to pump the stock, etc. And I think he goes out of his way to say certain things as a way of showing that he doesn't care.

To an extent, yes. The SP meant more in the beginning for funding reasons, but that overhang is gone. Next up was the employee pipeline/retention which is part of the risk even today I'd imagine. Or maybe that's the plan as part of the Factory ramps, for retention. Stuff behind the scenes might put this over everyone's head as the truth goes, still waiting for the reveal.

Not sure I agree with the part about him not caring for the shareholder, but the Options trader sure. I think everyone was warned, Shareholder losses are all on paper and the future looks bright. Did you have some Options? I did, a few are breathing on life support. My lesson on greed.

The @Ogre said it better...

 

[carterm2]

ZeroSumGame led the story on MegaPack Production (hmo) has an estimate.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608200434417631241

 

[betstarship]

Tesla Bot gets special mention in this awesome tweet storm containing a lot of nuggets of interesting progress:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1608150302925983746