Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

The fact that the stock has gone so long without any sort of relief rally means shorts/hedge fund would have to be insanely confident that Q4 P/D numbers are going to come in bad and cause further selling pressure. The odds are much more stacked for the Q4 P/D numbers to be the catalyst for a brief short term relief rally back up to 140-150 before shorts/hedge funds step back in a week or two before earnings to drive the stock back down to these levels with non-stop FUD about margins/net income collapsing on Q4 earnings.

At which point, the short to medium term direction of the stock will ultimately be decided by Tesla's earnings and guidance. Q4 earnings will decide whether this was the bottom or if there's further downside to come. I also think there's a fairly good chance that we see a refreshed "cheaper" Model 3 announced either on the P/D report or on Q4 earnings.

Given how fast this is driven down, I think they are trying for end of the year push gearing up for a short squeeze from dumb retail put buyers after P&D.

Emmet Peppers noticed that there are out of the money puts pricing in bankruptcy by 2025, and also you can make over a dollar a share with 25 strike price puts for 2025. It's actually hilarious at how big of a bear trap this is.

 

[SOULPEDL]

As I've mentioned earlier Elon does not care about any individuals. The only thing that matters is HIS MISSION. All else is expendable. He founded a school for his kids. Once his kids graduated, he shuttered it. The kids younger than his kids were SOL (including mine). It's realistically fractions of pennies on the dollar for him to maintain the school but since it serves no purpose to him, he didn't spend another second of thought on it.

I can confidently say we can count on Elon trying to have Tesla execute as best as it can.

TSLA price however, he DGAF. If you used options or leverage, he DGAF even less than his typical DGAF. Hell he basically said Tesla stock is too high to deflect his adventures and essentially told the market to move money to TBills and other guaranteed returns.

I don't see how anyone can want to save humanity but only care about himself. He could have easily focused on AI to take over the world like Dr. Evil.

Sounds personal with the school. From my experience, they all suck in the US, even with politics and religion aside. Canada was always better, every time.

 

[betstarship]

Curious, what is your total cost basis? Its always easier for those who got in very early.

Thank you - the conversation fueled from this post inspired me to look at my cost basis out of my non-IRA.

...immediate smiles and laughter.

 

[Max Plaid]

The fact that the stock has gone so long without any sort of relief rally means shorts/hedge fund would have to be insanely confident that Q4 P/D numbers are going to come in bad and cause further selling pressure. The odds are much more stacked for the Q4 P/D numbers to be the catalyst for a brief short term relief rally back up to 140-150 before shorts/hedge funds step back in a week or two before earnings to drive the stock back down to these levels with non-stop FUD about margins/net income collapsing on Q4 earnings.

At which point, the short to medium term direction of the stock will ultimately be decided by Tesla's earnings and guidance. Q4 earnings will decide whether this was the bottom or if there's further downside to come. I also think there's a fairly good chance that we see a refreshed "cheaper" Model 3 announced either on the P/D report or on Q4 earnings.

I can already tell you Tesla's guidance:

Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and the capacity and stability of the supply chain.

You heard it here first folks!

 

[Ogre]

Given how fast this is driven down, I think they are trying for end of the year push gearing up for a short squeeze from dumb retail put buyers after P&D.

Emmet Peppers noticed that there are out of the money puts pricing in bankruptcy by 2025, and also you can make over a dollar a share with 25 strike price puts for 2025. It's actually hilarious at how big of a bear trap this is.

I’m fully onboard this. Just cautious at this point.

I’m confident we’ll see a huge rally, just a matter of timing. Watching a couple of big short term bets vanish into dust over the past 6 months when expecting a rally can make a guy cautious I guess. Stay long… I mean LONG and you are safe.

 

[GOVA]

I think Occam's Razor is best applied here. Elon just doesn't care about the stock price beyond a certain point (I don't know what that point is, but I'm confident it's at $150 or above for right now). Look no further than how he dumps stock on the open market, or his statements about the stock price being too high, or how he's not going to withhold his views just to pump the stock, etc. And I think he goes out of his way to say certain things as a way of showing that he doesn't care.

I did not know you can trun Occam's Razor into Red Herring. I guess it is possible now.

 

[TrendTrader007]

i think bottom is in. if not, then we are flirting with bottom and $100 is floor unless proven otherwise
high volume today is sealing fate of bears. does not mean that TSLA will not go down tomorrow but $100 seems highly unlikely to be broken, unless Tesla has a major disappointment on jan2, 2023
odds are in favor of bottoming process underway
as always, not financial advice-means don't go rushing buying short dated call options and blame me if TSLA trades at $60 next month
all in all i love today's action and love the fact that we are green in a down market, on high volume, which shows conviction and institutional support
that is how bottoms are made, over a period of days to weeks
of course, i will love it to see an early 2016 or early 2020 style fierce V shaped bounce
very interesting few days ahead

alternatively, this could just be short covering followed by more downside action
only time will tell
i would not be shorting TSLA here, for sure

 

[Thekiwi]

Meanwhile AAPL has quietly shed 1 trillion market cap in 2022 now that they are at a 52 week low today.

Let's hope 2023 will be better because these past two months are truly painful.

Losing a trillion in market cap is a relative thing.

much preferable to be down from $3 Trillion to $2 Trillion (Apple), than being down $0.9 Trillion from $1.25 Trillion to $0.35 Trillion (Tesla)

if deploying new funds however, I know where I would rather be for maximum opportunity

 

[StealthP3D]

You must have done some very interesting and impressive mathematical gymnastics to believe the statements that I have put in bold above.
Uncle Leo has recently tweeted that Elon has sold about $35 billion worth in the past year or so, I have not kept a tally, so don't know if that is accurate but it has to be somewhere in the ballpark considering the amount he invested in the company not to be named plus the amount he sold last year for paying "more tax than anyone ever in the US". As for how much his initial investment (or total investment) into Tesla I doubt it was more than 10% of that amount. So, in my math he has already cashed out at least 10x his investments from Tesla.

Sure, he worked hard over many years and deserves compensation for that and he made the company successful so he can enjoy high return on his investments, that's all good. But that does not make your statements about his investment true...

ps: just Googled to find out that he got about $180 million from sale of Paypal, and that is what he invested initially into Tesla and SpaceX, which means his cash-out is more than 100x his initial Tesla investment, I was off by an order of magnitude.

100% Wrong. He's only cashed out a fraction of his compensation package, which was granted in options, not dollars. The relevant metric here is not how much money he has cashed out of the business, but whether he has cashed out more shares than those granted to him via compensation (adjusted, of course, for splits).

Not only did Elon not lie about "being first in and last out" (yet), but you are twisting logic to try to imply that he did, just like the media does.

 

[thesmokingman]

Two minute warning.... tiny rally into the close.

 

[Ogre]

You must have done some very interesting and impressive mathematical gymnastics to believe the statements that I have put in bold above.
Uncle Leo has recently tweeted that Elon has sold about $35 billion worth in the past year or so, I have not kept a tally, so don't know if that is accurate but it has to be somewhere in the ballpark considering the amount he invested in the company not to be named plus the amount he sold last year for paying "more tax than anyone ever in the US". As for how much his initial investment (or total investment) into Tesla I doubt it was more than 10% of that amount. So, in my math he has already cashed out at least 10x his investments from Tesla.

Sure, he worked hard over many years and deserves compensation for that and he made the company successful so he can enjoy high return on his investments, that's all good. But that does not make your statements about his investment true...

ps: just Googled to find out that he got about $180 million from sale of Paypal, and that is what he invested initially into Tesla and SpaceX, which means his cash-out is more than 100x his initial Tesla investment, I was off by an order of magnitude.

Musk invested 95% of his assets into Tesla and SpaceX. He has withdrawn less than 15% of his total assets from Tesla.

Musk is spending money he was paid as compensation for his actions as CEO.

What you seem to be suggesting is that Musk should not benefit from the compensation he gets as CEO. That makes no sense.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I bet it floats up in AH.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Volume was higher today than yesterday
step#1 of bottoming process
step #2 will be testing resolve of bulls
of course, all this could be thrown out the window if P&D disappoints. if that happens, we go much lower
on the other hand, if P&D beats then all bets are off and shorts will face a reckoning of historic proportions
if that happens, and i hope it happens, then 2023 may turn out to be year for history books for TSLA investors
just like 2009 for AAPL, AMZN, BIDU, LVS etc

 

[Zoom out a bit]

If you haven't listened to the Q3 2022 conference call in a while, I suggest you listen to it again. Elon said Q4 is going to be "epic".

I assume he meant that in a good way and wasn't referring to the share price but it is worth an hour of your time to go back and listen to how confident they were in the business, just a few short months ago (no pun intended when I say "short" months).

 

[2daMoon]

I suspect we're done with the drops, keeping it >. IMO, it's too close now to P&D while Q4 inventory bottoms out a bit early, and max volume today didn't break it.

(Full disclosure, I may have said this in the past, I just can't recall.)

Say it ain't so!

I've got that plan in the works to buy $20 chairs...

 

[GOVA]

If you haven't listened to the Q3 2022 conference call in a while, I suggest you listen to it again. Elon said Q4 is going to be "epic".

I assume he meant that in a good way and wasn't referring to the share price but it is worth an hour of your time to go back and listen to how confident they were in the business, just a few short months ago (no pun intended when I say "short" months).

Elon is that you???

Good 1st post, btw

 

[mrmage]

Remember all that the uptick rule was in effect today. Let's wait until the shorts have free reign tomorrow to see if declines are pausing.

Hopefully I didn't close my Feb17 120 protective puts prematurely today. If TSLA drops tomorrow, I may sell puts with effective cost as a value stock (PE in the 20s). Should be a win whether I get the shares or not.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, I started buying in 2013 and still haven’t sold a single share (yes it helps that I’m still working and spend less than I make).

I posted this almost 2 1/2 years ago about holding through the down times if it’s a company you believe in. And despite the huge scary drop we’ve seen recently, I feel the same way now as I did then. And the stock is higher now than it was then.

HODL.

View attachment 889635

Interesting, I made my first purchase in July 2015 8x @€250, split(s) adjusted ~€17

But my core purchase was February 2016 on the China dip - pure luck on the timing, split adjusted 6105x @€9.74 -> really very lucky too get in at that price at that moment`

Edit: apologies, those prices should be in €, not $

 

[generalenthu]

looks like the highest volume day since S&P inclusion couple of years ago. Probably not the highest $ volume, but looks to be the case by # of shares. Likely means something something in the TA land, but that's not my thing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Say it ain't so!

I've got that plan in the works to buy $20 chairs...

Oh man, it's so gonna rip just cuz you said that.
Best of "luck" with $20 chairs. Costco maybe?