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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Was there any news on the way down this month?
Discounted cars (but not explained that it was for 2023 new tax reasons).
Elon selling billions of $ of shares. That the CEO lied about being the last to sell shares. Selling more after saying that's the last sale several times. That doesn't look good!
China covid issues.
Elon making Twitter headlines not Tesla headlines!
... that really not enough for you?!?!
 
Opinion amongst my friends in the UK is that Elon has gone off the deep end / is f*ing stupid! Many like me weren't impressed that he went after that British caver in Thailand 3 years ago! That was one of the first signs for me he was a bit unhinged. Paying a private dick $30k to shadow the guy and find out if he was a nonce! That received a lot of bad press in the UK! Even the Daily Fail in the UK doesn't think he's wonderful anymore - and that rag hate electric cars anyway! Most in Europe are democratic leaning, aren't overly religious and are 99% anti-gun. So Elon courting the Republicans doesn't look good in Europe! They see the Dems as for environmental controls - and if they have bought a Tesla a lot will have bought for clean air / environmental reasons. People who have money to buy a Tesla are often making a conscious decision for the less polluting vehicle. Remember the Green party is in power in Germany (all be-it part of a coalition).


Hmmm. Doesn’t seem to be hurting Tesla sales though.


C0515BD7-7339-4A08-8266-677CDD697BA9.jpeg



Source: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market

To bad sales are not updated daily in the UK. But considering the amount of RoRo’s that had Southampton as final destination sales are pretty good in December I reckon.
 
Is the tide turning? Was as low as $105 or $106 pre-market, now $113.

There is certainly something going on

From -3% premarket to +4.5% at some point

That’s a 7.5% shift. That might bring positive sentiment and lead shorts to cover.
Why is anyone still looking for a reason?
This is a 3year old having a temper tantrum.
There is no place for reasoning here, it will burn out the energy and stop.

Keep calm and profit.
Seems like the 3 y.o. got spanked during the night
 
Discounted cars (but not explained that it was for 2023 new tax reasons).
Elon selling billions of $ of shares. That the CEO lied about being the last to sell shares. Selling more after saying that's the last sale several times. That doesn't look good!
China covid issues.
Elon making Twitter headlines not Tesla headlines!
... that really not enough for you?!?!
The only news from Tesla was that the Semi is now sold for revenue.
The items you state are arguments by people to explain why things are supposedly Very Bad. Just like in the previous 10 years.
 
I have to hand it to current Tesla CEO for possibly being one of the most tone deaf CEOs in history. While the stock is down-11% all the guy can talk about is his social media platform

Dec 9, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@p_ferragu When there are macroeconomic risks, it is generally wise to avoid using margin loans on any company, as stocks may move in ways that are decoupled from their long-term potential" / Twitter

Dec 13, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@WholeMarsBlog Tesla will be great long-term, but doesn’t control macroeconomic tides" / Twitter

Dec 13, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@WholeMarsBlog I will make sure Tesla shareholders benefit from Twitter long-term" / Twitter

Dec 16, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@GerberKawasaki Tesla is executing better than ever! We don’t control the Federal Reserve. That is the real problem here." / Twitter

Dec 17, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@BrianFeroldi @GerberKawasaki I literally just finished my meeting going over Giga Texas production progress" / Twitter

Dec 21, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams." / Twitter

Dec 21, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@28delayslater Maybe so, in which case … buying opportunity! I keep saying that Fed rate is insane, because data I’m seeing says we’re already in deflation. If true, then real rate of return of T-bills is roughly that of S&P 500. Very smart investor I spoke to today said he’s shorting S&P…" / Twitter

Dec 25, 2022:
Elon Musk on Twitter: "Merry Christmas & Good Cheer to All! " / Twitter

Yup, sounds like a tone-deaf CEO to me. /s

Seriously, Elon has spoken about the reasons for the SP drop throughout the month of December. Just because people don't like his explanation doesn't mean he doesn't hear them, it means he thinks other issues are responsible. And he has given TSLA investors sound advice on how to thrive over the long-term:
  • Don't use margin, and
  • Think long-term.
Cheers to the Longs!
 
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Hmmm. Doesn’t seem to be hurting Tesla sales though.


View attachment 889529


Source: Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 14 countries, 90+% of BEV market

To bad sales are not updated daily in the UK. But considering the amount of RoRo’s that had Southampton as final destination sales are pretty good in December I reckon.
I still drive a Model 3 though. Because it looks cool and is efficient and the supercharger network. Doesn't mean I like the CEO! I'm looking at others now, the MG 4 looks awesome, is a hatchback, and £26k and has a similar 53kWh LFP pack, and an almost identical range! So I think the competition is catching up with Tesla - especially the Chinese who might be over-taking the European manufacturers!
The stuff Elon's said in the last 3-6 months is probably only making a small % of people change their mind. But in the UK there's been a 9 month wait for Tesla's - so a lot of in-built demand. The used price has been above the new price even. But now there's 100s of Tesla's coming to the end of their 3 year finance deals, normally a time when people change-up. There used to be 20ish Model 3's on the "used" page, now there's 100s. Deman is slowing I think, the used price has fallen £5000 in 3 months. I was seeing my SR+ Model 3 (that I paid £39100 for) going for £49,000 2nd hand with 10k miles. Now they're about £44k.
 
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The only news from Tesla was that the Semi is now sold for revenue.
The items you state are arguments by people to explain why things are supposedly Very Bad. Just like in the previous 10 years.
Tesla hadn't discounted cars for 6+ years. They discounted some about 2016 when the dealers were making clever discount Model S though supposedly Elon didn't want them to - but was giving them ways to discount them!
The last tranch of share sales happened in early December. When your CEO is selling into a falling market it doesn't look good.
 
I still drive a Model 3 though. Because it looks cool and is efficient and the supercharger network. Doesn't mean I like the CEO! But he's not as cool. I'm looking at others now, the MG 4 looks awesome, is a hatchback, and £26k.

Model 3 was designed by Franz.
That’s what people keep forgetting, Tesla is more than a ten thousand men/women endeavour. The CEO is taking disproportionate place online compared to the importance to everyone working at Tesla
 
Elon selling billions of $ of shares. That the CEO lied about being the last to sell shares. Selling more after saying that's the last sale several times. That doesn't look good!

I think you've focused too much on the media (intentional mis)interpretation of what Elon has Tweeted than what he actually Tweeted. I see this bandied about a lot so let's look at what he actually Tweeted.

Note: Elon isn't "out" of Tesla, at all. He still holds a massive amount of TSLA.


Note: Use of word "planned". At the time he Tweeted, this was likely correct. He did not lie.

 
GM
A lot of people here are very concerned about their investment.
Although that's quite understandable, let me try to put the current situation a bit in perspective.

I constructed a picture of what happened with the stock price (market cap) of Ford during the last recession.
As pointed out in this post, the last official recession was between Dec 2007 and June 2009.
From the start in Dec 2007 the market cap of Ford went down over 70% (sounds familiar?), from $15.9B to $4.2B at the end of Jan 2009, so in a little over one year.
However, at the end of the recession in June 2009, just 5 months later, the market cap had rebounded to $19.6B.
1.5 Year later, at the end of 2010, Ford's market cap was a whopping $63.4B.

Now, a lot can be argued about this being just one example, other times, different circumstances, different brand, etc., etc.
But to me Ford at that time was nowhere in the 'ramping up position' that Tesla is now. With fantastic products and more at the horizon.
And a recession now is still not sure.

I am wondering when the stock price of Tesla will explode, because that's what I think is going to happen.
Just don't know when, so sit tight and watch in amazement.
At least that is what I am doing.

View attachment 889518
GM went bankrupt, Ford just escaped. But yeah, would have been a great steal, $3 -> 30 share price.
But the 2008 crash was far deeper than this. It involved the collapse of finance and a massive confidence collapse. The banks were failing. The housing market had crashed. Houses were being foreclosed. The Fed stepped in and Presidents and Prime Ministers were shoring up banks with $100bn's. As something like 70% of US cars are bought on finance all of that kinda stopped. Banks actually stopped lending! They didn't trust other banks! This is 100% NOT the same recession as that, we're not even sure if this is a recession. The US is still growing. The UK isn't (Brexit).

I can definitely see the Tesla share price surging 50% at the end of this downturn. But Tesla's PE of 120 demanded flawless execution and perfect news. All the other high-flying tech stocks have crashed 50%. Nvidia, Amazon (was a high PE too), even Apple is down over 30%. It was just Tesla's time to come back down to a more sensible (20 PE) - but doesn't mean it can't bounce to 30x based on forward growth.
 
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Hmmm, I’m seeing the same spike in pre market SP in other EV tickers like Nio, Lucid and Rivian.

Obviously something is going on but what 🤔

If I understand correctly they're in the same "trading bucket" as TSLA. So if TSLA moves up, the others can follow.

I'm not a tesla investor, but wonder, is there anyone still hodling tsla? The way I see it, one can easily double the money by selling now and getting back in at 50% and the way the overall markets are going, it seems likely.

Then why the heck are you here? This is a thread for investors, not trolls who don't even own the stock.
 
Opinion amongst my friends in the UK is that Elon has gone off the deep end / is f*ing stupid! Many like me weren't impressed that he went after that British caver in Thailand 3 years ago! That was one of the first signs for me he was a bit unhinged. Paying a private dick $30k to shadow the guy and find out if he was a nonce! That received a lot of bad press in the UK! Even the Daily Fail in the UK doesn't think he's wonderful anymore - and that rag hate electric cars anyway! Most in Europe are democratic leaning, aren't overly religious and are 99% anti-gun. So Elon courting the Republicans doesn't look good in Europe! They see the Dems as for environmental controls - and if they have bought a Tesla a lot will have bought for clean air / environmental reasons. People who have money to buy a Tesla are often making a conscious decision for the less polluting vehicle. Remember the Green party is in power in Germany (all be-it part of a coalition).
I hear similar comments about Elon, but the people I speak with don't care enough to not get a Tesla - He's just some rich jackass in America doing American rich jackass things - We all know those loud, uncouth Americans go on about this stuff all the time with their guns and hamburgers.
 
I'm not a tesla investor, but wonder, is there anyone still hodling tsla? The way I see it, one can easily double the money (or number of stocks) by selling now and getting back in at 50% and the way the overall markets are going, it seems likely.

Clearly you are not taking into account taxes . . . at all.
 
I hear similar comments about Elon, but the people I speak with don't care enough to not get a Tesla - He's just some rich jackass in America doing American rich jackass things - We all know those loud, uncouth Americans go on about this stuff all the time with their guns and hamburgers.

Dude, don't insult the hamburger! /s