Empty white cabinets to give off the illusion of a megapack, GLJ research is hot on the tails of this fraud!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
thesmokingman
Active Member
Demand is so low... /Troy
So if a person goes to buy a car on Jan 1, how will they know what discount they are getting? Isn't it point of sale?
Can someone explain the math? Net change 15 megapacks in a day would would imply that 15 more were shipped than produced. How do we go from this to production rate? It seems that we have one equation and two unknowns.
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On an unrelated note. I think people are severely underestimating margins for Q4 and Q1. Shipping costs have fallen a lot.
Localization improving on all continents, driving down costs further. Elon is saying he is seeing deflation, which I assume he means costs for raw material and parts. Fixed costs such as HW3 development is being shared with more vehicles. Factories have been continuously driving down costs before, so will probably do it again with less waste, less energy, faster rates etc. Superchargers have higher prices with increased energy prices and higher usage(with non-teslas also adding income now) and the new supercharger factory likely is producing superchargers even cheaper than before. Service getting more efficient with scale. We are seeing a higher mix of LFP in both vehicles and storage improving costs. FSD went wide release increasing both take rate and they can book a larger share of the revenue. Prices are still very high, Model 3 used to cost $35k, the cheapest one you can get today is 47k. Model Y, which probably costs the same to make as the Model 3, starts at $66k.
And this is even before IRA starts to subsize Tesla as a company next year... Margins will be looking very good in Q4 and even better next year. Tesla can probably cut prices 10-25% and keep their margins around 30% if they want to grow demand.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tesla was battery cell constrained going into COVID. When the chip shortage happened, TSLA had chip constraints that rendered their cell constraints temporarily moot. At that point TSLA would be cell constrained if they were not chip constrained. During the Q3 2022 earnings call (IIRC), it was stated that Tesla was no longer constrained by cells for the first time for a long time (and according to Martin, that is apparently still the case). Obviously, they were treating the previous underlying cell constraints as still being there even though the chip constraints were the temporary limiting factor. It depends on whether you are looking at the supply chain on a week-to-week basis or quarter-to-quarter/year-to-year basis. Manufacturing is hard.
It looks like you are confused when you accuse people of having their head in the sand because you are not interpreting Martin's comments in the broad context with which they were offered. He is saying that, overall, they were still constrained by batteries through the chip shortage, even though chip supply was limiting production through the middle of the chip shortage. Context matters.
Cat problems.
FWIW I only see 3750 discount when I go to the website.
FWIW I only see 3750 discount when I go to the website.
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Don't know why Tesla won't just give out EAP for free. That has zero impact on margins, tho not that the last 9 days of deliveries will make a difference in margins with the discount.
A reminder that the Model 3 Performance won’t qualify for any tax credit at its current sale price. If anyone is thinking about getting one, this is a great deal.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Well @#%K . . . queue the "demand problem" rumors for tomorrow's trading
This news already came out at 4:37pm from electrek and did nothing to AH trading.
I think some of these people on twitter are jumping the gun. They got personal text messages from their SC it seems. Perhaps it's a case per case discount as it's not being reflected on Tesla.com
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I expect to see some light to moderate price cuts through the first half of 2023 but they will probably be due mostly to increasing production volumes combined with some lingering softness due to recession. Increasing production efficiency and cost declines in materials and logistics may be able to compensate, leaving margins nearly unchanged. If price cuts are not necessary, or they have price increases, the margins will look positively greedy. If the ramp of Cybertruck is not fast, and I wouldn't expect it to be quick by default, that could weigh on margins a bit through the end of 2023.
As you can see, there are so many factors that are unknown, even internally at Tesla, that it's nearly impossible to accurately predict margins even looking a year or less out. I think it's sufficient to say that margins are already high enough that even two or three factors turning against Tesla is not a real threat at this stage. And, if everything lines up positively, look out above! All systems go!
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
In any case what really matters is the race to 300 TWh cumulative battery deployment. Master Plan Part Trois will be all about tonnage and extreme scale.
If half of that target is for stationary storage and we're trying to get the mission accomplished in the next few decades then we'd need hundreds of Lathrop-sized factories each making 40 GWh/year. This Lathrop factory is just an easy little experimental warmup exercise compared to what's coming. We will actually need around ten terafactories each on the order of 1 TWh/year production output.
thesmokingman
Active Member
He's so full of *sugar* leaving out the context.
YES! Spot on post. Finally though energy is moving. Personally I am hopeful that the entire world has tipped to renewables, battery storage is such a no brainer that economics alone drive change, just like the semi.
If they would build another megapack facility I would be quite cheerful about energy helping drive the stock back up. Semi would just be icing.
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At Berlin and Austin we currently have 2 factories ramping and upgrades were done this year to squeeze more production out of Fremont and Shanghai.
With the cheaper Gen3 cars say $25,000-$35,000 USD demand is not a likely issue. the real question is production. How many can they make, and how fast can they ramp? The fastest way to ramp is having multiple factories ramping at the same time, or with a minimal delay between the start of each ramp.
It could be that a specialist team has been formed specifically to accelerate factory ramps, and to help train the local staff. They may sequence the ramps so that that team can be involved, that is the argument against parallel ramps. But I think the team would be more needed at a new site. At an existing factory site, there is already a core of well trained and experienced workers.
What we know about Gen3 is, the cost to build is 50% lower, that implies lower capex and a likely faster ramp.
Same for energy storage, Lathrop is a specialist energy storage battery factory, again demand is not a likely issue, no reason why they can't have more factories just for energy storage battery production.
The reasons to move fast are, the mission, and the opportunity.
Here ya go.
Probably the last of these I’ll be able to post. I tweeted some block-worthy snark.
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