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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So share price has absolutely nothing to do with company performance, and 100% to do with its CEO's behavior. Got it.

That's a bid reductionist. It's more about the knock-on effects of CEO's behavior on future revenues / profits. Market participants are forward looking, as you know. Just about everyone thinks Tesla will continue to grow, as you also know. I think that, to an extent, the question we're seeing play out in the stock price is - how much will they grow? And the $200B-$300B question right now is: is that growth now less (or even considerably less) than it was before the CEO became such a controversial figure? And even worse, this question is being asked in the face of a looming recession, when the floor for Tesla demand would be appreciably lower than it otherwise would be, so the question of growth is even more front-of-mind.

Do I think there are market participants looking to milk this scenario for all it's worth, thereby exacerbating it? Absolutely. But I think it is folly to deny that there are red flags that allow those very participants to exploit the situation to this extent.

I know this board is full of hardcore bulls who have stared down some pretty wicked FUD in the past, and those instincts have served many of us extremely well. I think those very same instincts may now be doing a disservice to some within this community, because it has created a blindspot to potentially legitimate concerns. And why do I think it matters what this community thinks? Why spend the time debating it on this board? Because I think that we, as shareholders and staunch defenders of this company - some of us from its earliest days - have a voice that can collectively, and eventually, filter back to decision makers within the company and effect change if it is needed.
 
The US IRA certainly is creating softness in US deliveries for Tesla in December. If the goal of the subsidy is to promote and sell more EVs then why wouldn't eligibility be from the bill passage date vs January of the next year? Seems obvious that it might slam the brakes on US EV sales, counter to what the bill promotes?
 
Wow, about to be passed by Johnson & Johnson. Hard enough being passed by Berkshire and UnitedHealth this month.

Having said that, I'm still a strong believer we'll pass Amazon soon (within 12 months), and Apple eventually. HODL.

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this selloff is way overdone. i have no idea whether it will stop today or in 3 months but comparing it to other selloffs in high quality big cap stocks as well as tesla stock itself, it is getting super extended to downside. typically, next year or two have strong rebounds. this time may be an exception but probability favors 2023 as year of strong rebound. for a large cap stock like tesla growing earnings 69% and sales 56% year over year and accelerating growth, this current stock price is a huge disconnect from reality with TSLA down -65% from all time high. this selloff highly unlikely to last and turning point may be close at hand
 
So share price has absolutely nothing to do with company performance, and 100% to do with its CEO's behavior. Got it.
correction: share price has everything to do with company performance. It goes like this:

Good performance -> SP goes up -> the CEO sells shares to buy random companies -> SP goes down

So in conclusion, SP is inverse with performance.

Am I doing this right?

PS: Merry Christmas and I love you all. Only 10 more days to go. How much further can it drop, right?
 
Here's hoping that as the voices telling Elon to chill with the politics increase he will finally back off his soapbox.


I personally don't believe price increases are happening.

The IRA acronym is thrown around a lot, but using the acronym kinda makes it easier to lose sight of this being the Inflation Reduction Act. This legislation is not intended to blow up demand and destroy the work being done by central banks in terms of balancing that demand with available supply, and higher auto prices as a result will either increase the Auto component of inflation metrics and give the Fed more ammunition to be hawkish or will serve to further entrench increases that have already occurred (if prices increase but are offset by credits) rather than unwind them thus likely resulting in higher rates for longer.

We can't declare victory over inflation until prices come down and stabilize and that includes autos, with houses and cars being two of the most rate-sensitive assets
It's called the inflation reduction act just like every other piece of legislation, a nice name that hides the intent.

The intent is not to reduce inflation, but to bail out legacy auto and onshore critical energy resources. Will this result in a lot of demand? Yes. Will it result in price increases? Maybe. Depends on market demand in this recession or whatever is coming next.
 
Yeah, Colin changing from a Buy to Hold is kind of a big deal. I was legit surprised by this.

I don't understand his reasoning because Tesla seems stronger than ever, but eh whatever.
This is why some people are momentum traders. Lower sp leads to more downgrades stating as the reason that caused the lower sp.

However I find these downgrade reasons to be arbitrary including the Collins himself. He couldnt put a PT on it because he doesn't know how to calculate brand destruction which requires lots of speculation.
 
Yeah, Colin changing from a Buy to Hold is kind of a big deal. I was legit surprised by this.

I don't understand his reasoning because Tesla seems stronger than ever, but eh whatever.
It really just goes to show how all analysts, even the ones that are considered top quality ones, can be completely clueless. This really wreaks of 2018-2019 where practically every analyst, even the top notch ones, completely missed not just the potential of Tesla, but the very basics of what was happening within the company when it came to their margins and operating margin potential.

It's the same thing happening with FSD revenue, the Commerical side of Tesla auto, ignoring upcoming Tesla consumer vehicles (Cybertruck and Compact), IRA impacts to their business and demand, and especially, Tesla Energy. Even China will be a catalyst in 2023 because they're finally abandoning their Covid lockdowns...which have been the main impact on demand for Tesla in China.

There are so many big catalysts upcoming in Q1 but even the best analysts get caught up in the noise.
 
Regarding the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, has anybody on this thread evaluated or discussed the so-called commercial vehicle loophole? Depending on how this is interpreted in the upcoming rules, this would allow rental cars or leased cars to get relaxed foreign-content treatment subsidy requirements. Hyundai is for this, Toyota is against this.

I have wondered if or how Tesla could get US subsidies on Indonesian-sourced high energy density cells. Perhaps this is part of the answer?

Commercial clean vehicle credit is lesser of:

  • $7,500 (under 14k pounds)
  • 30% of cost (only matters if car is <$25k)
  • Difference in price compared to equivilent ICE vehicle.

This last one is where Treasury Secretary guidance is critcal. Need the comparable to cost $7,500 less to max out the credit. Not combinable with the other vehicle credit.
 
just to give you all an idea about how far disconnected from reality current selloff is: in 3 months TSLA is down -53.5% while QQQ is -13% or so
this level of drop took 6 months in 2019 and even early 2016 was nowhere close. bears and shorts have way overplayed their hand and are likely gloating over their profits. complacency reigns supreme in tesla bear camp.
bears are about to get a big surprise as soon as TSLA stock price turns up and shorts will get decimated. mark my words. it's coming
i will be squeezing every single million out of hands of shorts and bears over next several years
 
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Commercial clean vehicle credit is lesser of:

  • $7,500 (under 14k pounds)
  • 30% of cost (only matters if car is <$25k)
  • Difference in price compared to equivilent ICE vehicle.

This last one is where Treasury Secretary guidance is critcal. Need the comparable to cost $7,500 less to max out the credit. Not combinable with the other vehicle credit.
Helpful. Are the materials/parts sourcing and assembly criteria different from the other vehicle credit?
 
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This just in, direct from the North Pole (I know it's not fair that I get news before you tropical folks, but it's good payback for, you know, winter...)

Santa Claus has a present for all of us: stock market will be closed Monday Dec 26 and Monday January 2.
So it is guaranteed that $TSLA doesn't go down on those two days? Woohoo!