ZachF
Active Member
If FSD costs $25k, then a bare bones Model 3 RWD with FSD would cost $71k vs $63k for a M3 performance.
99/100 potential buyers (including me) would take the cheaper $63k M3P.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
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If FSD costs $25k, then a bare bones Model 3 RWD with FSD would cost $71k vs $63k for a M3 performance.
99/100 potential buyers (including me) would take the cheaper $63k M3P.
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Agreed.
I was thinking more along the lines of it including one or two transfers when the vehicle is traded on a new Tesla vehicle.
Perhaps an X-number-of-years transferable license for a flat fee could be an alternative.
I feel like a lot of us are having to look closer at the sausage-making involved in running a 300+ million person country now that it affects something we know and care a lot about. I include myself in this group.
From what I have read, we aren't really supposed to know the specifics of what vehicles apply to it yet. Perhaps that sort of thing in general is way too specific for Congress to tackle. Instead, they set more broad goals like 'increasing amount of domestically sourced minerals over the next 10 years', and let the relevant Agency (like Department of Transportation, Energy, or Treasury) apply those policy goals in the bill to the actual society / marketplace as it currently exists, and in which they are much more connected day to day than Congress: the assumption being that the relevant agency can hack through the details - many of which have come up in this forum, (i.e. what is or is not an SUV? what is included in 'minerals'? by weight or by cost? etc.)
I am starting to see that this process of going from broad legislative strokes to specific rules (i.e. rules that WOULD decide if a Model Y is an SUV, plus all those other questions) is the thing called "rulemaking" - the making of "rules" a.k.a. "regulations" and the process of rulemaking is described by law (summary links below).
But I get the overall idea: Congress in general is trying not to make super-specific pronouncements on some of these things (when it does do that, we tend to call it 'pork'
) and instead just set the direction, then let the agencies hash it out closer to ground level.Some descriptions of the detailed, multi-step rulemaking process (and btw it does involve public comment ... let's keep our eyes open for those opportunities):
Federal Rulemaking
Congress and presidents have worked to enhance oversight of the federal rulemaking process to promote greater transparency and public participation...
How can you increase the price to $15k, when people who paid for it more than a year ago still can't get it?
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
If you are blind, or handicapped, or elderly and not able to drive, this is a no brainer decision...to the opposite.
Dan
That all depends on how much faith you have that FSD will be solved. If you trust Elon and think FSD will be solved soon and you think a functional FSD is worth you while than jump on it now. Else you will regret having to pay so much more.
I think the fact that Elon is increasing the prices continuously is a clear sign that he has ultimate faith that a functional FSD is happening very soon.
I'm curious to try the new version. FSD in my Model S is nowhere near autonomous. It can't even handle construction on a highway I've been driving regularly, where cones push all the cars onto the shoulder for a couple miles. It freaks out and would hit the cones 100% of the time.
A car with Robotaxi is worth $25k more than one without. Many people won't need a car with Robotaxi and that's ok too.
Maybe Tesla should think about adding a tier above "FSD"?
Or perhaps adding some features to EAP makes more sense.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
A little bit of thinking on FSD value proposition...
First, it's worth considering that for a lot of people, it comes with a HW3 upgrade (and a chance of future upgrades, if they're deemed necessary for FSD). And second, Tesla has started valuing it at 50% for trade-ins. So for a lot of people, it only needs to demonstrate (X * 0.5) -1000 in additional value. Or $5,000 for the current $12,000 price, and $6,500 for the $15,000 price.
And even if you ignore both of the above, consider that almost every other automaker has an autonomy program (e.g. Ford has Argo, GM has Cruise, etc), but none of them are even entertaining the possibility of letting customers own autonomous vehicles. The value of owning their own fleets of autonomous vehicles is way too great for them to even give a small piece of that away. So even if the probability of Tesla achieving L4 or greater is small, the future value is definitely large enough to make the current expected value greater than the opportunity cost of purchasing it.
First, it's worth considering that for a lot of people, it comes with a HW3 upgrade (and a chance of future upgrades, if they're deemed necessary for FSD). And second, Tesla has started valuing it at 50% for trade-ins. So for a lot of people, it only needs to demonstrate (X * 0.5) -1000 in additional value. Or $5,000 for the current $12,000 price, and $6,500 for the $15,000 price.
And even if you ignore both of the above, consider that almost every other automaker has an autonomy program (e.g. Ford has Argo, GM has Cruise, etc), but none of them are even entertaining the possibility of letting customers own autonomous vehicles. The value of owning their own fleets of autonomous vehicles is way too great for them to even give a small piece of that away. So even if the probability of Tesla achieving L4 or greater is small, the future value is definitely large enough to make the current expected value greater than the opportunity cost of purchasing it.
Krugerrand
Meow
Your point is valid in particular those who, for lots of reasons I do and do not understand, want to get a ‘new’ car every 83 days/weeks.
This is not something I’ve ever done nor am likely to do. I come from very old school tradition and thinking that does not allow me to do anything but quite literally drive my vehicle into the ground before acquiring a most likely new-used one. There are a number of reasons for that mentality, not least of all the depreciating asset logic - which is now being turned on its head, thank you, Elon, for making all those laughing, pointing fools look like, well, fools.
Secondarily, I suspect (strongly) that in the not too distant future how vehicle ownership is viewed will take a radical left turn - in which case all will make sense to your German blood.
I’ll remind people, again, not to get too caught up in what has been and assume that moving into the future looks the same. It will not.
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What this really truly hinges on is whether or not you believe FSD Beta in consumer vehicles will ever be more than Level 2 ADAS requiring driver supervision at all times. In trying to determine that, you need to form an opinion on whether it's even possible with the current hardware + camera setup, whether it will be granted regulatory approval, and whether Tesla will take on the risk required to certify these consumer vehicles as Level 3+.
Taking shots at Ford's and GM's offshoots is all well and good until we remember that Tesla is also planning a dedicated Robotaxi vehicle and we have no idea what that looks like, whether it will come with a more robust sensor suite, and whether it will be available to consumers or at what price. But the last update we received, during the Q1 earnings call, was that a new Robotaxi model with no steering wheel or pedals was slated for volume production in 2024.
If you believe that FSD in consumer vehicles will remain Level 2 and that the upcoming Robotaxi model will possibly become part of a Tesla-owned fleet and not necessarily available to consumers, there are suddenly many more parallels when comparing to what other companies are doing.
Well when the price goes up everyone that wants the beta gets the beta. (Exception for people that still need the camera upgrade.)
Same way they increased it in January.
I think there is a very good chance we get the full release to anybody who has paid for it soon (by that I mean by December), but I doubt it will be 10.69.2 at release. The earliest I could see is a couple weeks after 10.69.2 releases to all beta participants. I have some doubts that early, but the early videos on 10.69 look very good.
Favguy
Member
Not quite everyone, all I get above EAP is stopping for red lights and a chime telling me to manually start again when they go green!
I think it will be a (not so) minor miracle if FSD can ever function properly over here on some of our insanely antiquated narrow roads and roundabouts anyway.
Honestly, if you're really unable to drive for any of these very valid reasons then I'd love Tesla to offer to for free to those folks
“If” crash free driving works out (proof means time for convincing data), the “F” in FUD is fear and fear reverses roles.
When someone in one’s social circle has a spouse or child injured in an accident, the mind wanders if that could have been avoided if they were in a Tesla. Fear is a great informer.
I know people today who buy vehicles by weight just because heavier means safer in an accident.
The interesting question is how ride services would tier pricing for rides in Teslas?
I think data will have a lot of influence as to how this all falls out, of course. But when it does - Boom. Is a Tesla safer than a school bus?
If the data supports extremely low incidence of crashes along with a slew of cost in use savings (by mile, insurance and maintenance) then how do you put your loved ones in any other car. Good luck Volvo!
The best accident mitigation is no accident. If the data supports it, then Andy Groves inflection point has arrived.
Thanks for your comments, lots of thinking is called for on these eventualities
That is the crux of the problem. I have a 2018 Model 3 with FSD and I am not even in the beta program.
The car is 4 years old and it is unclear whether it will have officially released (non-beta) FSD before its old enough to be replaced.
I'm in this situation except I don't have FSD purchased (EAP here). I might at somepoint go to the subscription and pay the 1000 to replace the computer... but this car goes away when my Cybertruck comes in. So hopefully less than 2 years.
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