Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[H Mak]

I'd rephrase that like this

To make 20 million cars in 2030 Tesla will need to have completed 12 giga factories by 2028 to allow time to ramp.

To open in 2028, that last one needs to have started construction in 2026 at the latest.

They have close enough to 4 gigafactories now (China, Germany, Austin, (Fremont+Sparks) is about 3.x and I'll round up.

So Tesla needs to start building 8 new gigafactoires in the next 4 years. Not as tall an order as he suggests, but still a huge undertaking that will be impressive to watch.

As the legacy automakers go bust, one by one, they might not need to be built

 

[y_naught]

Doubtful (in a useful manner):
Credit is lesser of
30% of cost for BEV vehicles
OR
Incremental cost increase relative to ICE equivilent.

AND
Credit is capped at $7,500 for vehicles under 14,000 pounds Gross Vehicle Weight Rating.

This seems interesting depending the comparison for incremental equivilent. What would an S/X compare to? Still capped at $7,500, but may allow credit on company owned/ used cars.

And do we know the effective date? Might it apply as refundable to early 2022 deliveries?

 

[Skipdd]

Just saw this posted on @avoigt’s twitter thread - very interesting. Tesla now posting job ads to hire resources to work on DoJo, to include work on “…Humanoid robots operating various useful tasks within our factories”

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556227162558144512

 

[betstarship]

As its the weekend, I found this to be entirely informative:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556256310584258560

 

[mongo]

And do we know the effective date? Might it apply as refundable to early 2022 deliveries?

2023 onward.

EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendments made by this section shall apply to vehicles acquired after December 31, 2022.

 

[lafrisbee]

Since it's the weekend as a public service and having done some research into pre workout drinks I can say the one they are shilling is just overpriced caffeine with under dosing of any of the other potential ergogenic aids. I'll link a video in the Off Topic thread that goes into more detail.

I spent a very large % of my life in area of Public/consumer health education, and with an actual physical presence in a very high quality Gym owned by the Monopolistic Health care/Hospital in my area. And What you said is True enough that if taken verbatim would give the average joe a well-informed knowledge base to decide on which product to consume before working out.
And on a personal level, caffeine and a bit of the B vitamins is all I want before a workout...a half bagel and some chocolate milk right after has proven its worth as well.

 

[lascavarian]

I agree, but that was quite the miscalculation on Elon's part as well. Totally insane that a single puff of cannabis nearly jeopardized the SpaceX relationship with the US govt. Pretty good indicator of how fossilized that bureaucracy is. He could have taken Tequila shots until he was blabbering like a fool and his liver was dying without a tenth of the reaction from the geriatrics on high.

Don’t disagree that a healthy liver is a favorable goal and there is lots of fossilized bureaucracy.

Point as I see it is that Rogan uses Elon. Same for Lex who tried to get Elon connected with Putin for an interview with Lex as the translator. What could possibly go wrong.

Not to say all Tubers are evil per se but the incentives are against their guests. They are not your friend as I see it. Rogan came prepared and he got exactly what he wanted. If not hemp it would have been something else.

How many would be fine to do that to Elon? Spend your clicks wisely as I see it.

 

[Thumper]

I intend this as an actual suggestion not a joke. I think regaining tails for humanoids could be valuable. It could help with bipedal balance and with a small wheel in the end along with deployable wheels in the feet, could make for much less energy expensive travel over smooth surfaces.

 

[Matias]

The idea of level 4 before the end of the year is funny. We have three intersections in our small town that Jarvis (our model Y) gets wrong 100 percent of the time. Always in the wrong lane and will break the law and kill me if I let him every single time. We report it every day every time he screws up in the hole that it will get noticed. It’s coming along and we actually like using it but it will kill you dead at least once per trip if you let it.

Fun though. . Just not hoping for leak level 4 till the end of the decade or so. .

One cautionary tale is Chuck's left turn

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556241886699986944

They have specifically tried to solve that for few months and have sent Tesla's manufactures cars several times to that specific crossing. And still per Elon the success rate is only 90%. We know that the first 90% is the easy part..

 

[Singuy]

One cautionary tale is Chuck's left turn

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556241886699986944

They have specifically tried to solve that for few months and have sent Tesla's manufactures cars several times to that specific crossing. And still per Elon the success rate is only 90%. We know that the first 90% is the easy part..

People keep repeating that the first 90% is the easiest. There's nothing easy about the first 90%. Tesla increased fps by 50% while keeping the same hardware just to make this turn. You know how difficult this is to optimize an uplift of 50% in processing speed just from software?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

One cautionary tale is Chuck's left turn

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556241886699986944

They have specifically tried to solve that for few months and have sent Tesla's manufactures cars several times to that specific crossing. And still per Elon the success rate is only 90%. We know that the first 90% is the easy part..

No they haven’t been “trying to solve chucks turn for months”. What a false statement.

They’ve been out there testing chucks turn with the newer update for 2-3 weeks for validation since the mixture of elements at that turn. Considering the turnaround time for tweaks, as in they go out to test/validate and then have to do code tweets, that’s likely only 2 cycles of that test/validate loop

 

[powertoold]

At this point, we'll get fsd beta 10.420 before 11 ever comes out

 

[2daMoon]

I intend this as an actual suggestion not a joke. I think regaining tails for humanoids could be valuable. It could help with bipedal balance and with a small wheel in the end along with deployable wheels in the feet, could make for much less energy expensive travel over smooth surfaces.

Have you considered an Aptera?

 

[dhanson865]

Have you considered an Aptera?

I think he was talking about Optimus SubPrime aka the Tesla Robot maintaining it's general look but adding retractable foot wheels and a tail wheel so it could R2D2 around on smooth floors and walk with humanoid legs on unsmooth surfaces.

I'm not seeing it as worth doing, just trying to translate for those that didn't understand or might get confused by you adding a car into the mess.

 

[2daMoon]

I think he was talking about Optimus SubPrime aka the Tesla Robot maintaining it's general look but adding retractable foot wheels and a tail wheel so it could R2D2 around on smooth floors and walk with humanoid legs on unsmooth surfaces.

I'm not seeing it as worth doing, just trying to translate for those that didn't understand or might get confused by you adding a car into the mess.

Thanks for the clarity. ha ha

I thought it may have been a suggestion for human evolution and I want neither a tail (with or without a wheel) nor retractable wheels on my feet. (always preferred skateboards because I couldn't jump off of skates)

 

[Matias]

People keep repeating that the first 90% is the easiest. There's nothing easy about the first 90%.

Easier than the last 10%

 

[thesmokingman]

Been reading up on how many EV models will be excluded from this and how many EV’s that currently enjoy a EV credit that will lose it and man………this EV credit is going to put the model Y demand and thus sales, on steroids for the foreseeable future and be very bad for Tesla’s competitors.

This is especially material because US legacy auto makers that are eligible on the “made in North America” right now like the Mach E will lose it after 2023 because the Mach E’s batteries do not come from North America. Tesla however, by end of 2023, will have 4680 ramped up to mass production.

Essentially it comes down to not only are all Model Y trims eligible (and would still be eligible if Tesla increased prices by thousands), but many of many of Tesla’s best competition (Korean/Chinese/European) would lose their current tax credit. Yes some auto makers outside of North America are planning to build US factories, but we’re talking years away from start of production. Further, almost all other auto makers will be sourcing their batteries from outside the US for the next 2-3 years at minimum until a lot of the overseas battery makers build battery factories here. Tesla meanwhile, sources all of its Model Y batteries here in the US already. Then consider the 4680 ramp + Panasonic building their 4680 lines in the US next year

I know it’s by far not a perfect EV bill, but the dynamics of how it helps the Model Y and hurts many of its current competitors and future competitors is nuts. If Tesla chooses to and drops the Model 3 prices, it will be model 3 on steroids as well. But even if the Model 3 price doesn’t drop and thus it doesn’t get the credit, it’s still a big positive for Tesla. That’s because cars like Polestar will lose their credit that they currently get. When you start to get down into the details, this bill is very bullish for Tesla.

Bravo! An interesting part of this whole fiasco is Manchin becoming an unlikely ally... lol like who saw that coming? Electric Viking takes a look at Manchin's steadfast stance on source of mining/refining of battery materials and its impact on automakers. Essentially Manchin won't bend to give US auto time to rotate and build up their supply chain so that it complies with the politics of the bill. The politic-ism of EV's has the unintended consequence of actually slowing EV adoption as a whole but on the flip side it favors our favorite Tesla. I wonder if Manchin thought this out or if he said **** it and went full send anyways?

 

[Singuy]

Bravo! An interesting part of this whole fiasco is Manchin becoming an unlikely ally... lol like who saw that coming? Electric Viking takes a look at Manchin's steadfast stance on source of mining/refining of battery materials and its impact on automakers. Essentially Manchin won't bend to give US auto time to rotate and build up their supply chain so that it complies with the politics of the bill. The politic-ism of EV's has the unintended consequence of actually slowing EV adoption as a whole but on the flip side it favors our favorite Tesla. I wonder if Manchin thought this out or if he said **** it and went full send anyways?

Well people were saying how this bill being more expensive than they realize. Making it hard to meet the bill standard is a way of reducing the expense during the parts transition.

 

[thesmokingman]

Well people were saying how this bill being more expensive than they realize. Making it hard to meet the bill standard is a way of reducing the expense during the parts transition.

I think those ppl are wrong. It's cheap. It won't make any money for anybody except Tesla for now. When those who were saying the bill will become costly didn't read the bill closely enough. No one qualifies right now with the sourcing requirements except for Tesla. And down the line if it forces legacies to source and build their EVs here then it will pay for itself by bringing that industry back to the US.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Interesting data showing the Model 3 vs Mach-E production ramp. This isn’t a perfect comparison, but is still a useful datapoint.

From a great weekly news analysis: Auto News Analysis #4