Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[petit_bateau]

A few surprises in that graph for me (Canada almost as high up as USA for example. Guessing it is due to heating in the cold climate). And huzzah to Trinidad and Tobago for making the rest of us look good - I'm guessing island economies get by however they can, a wide range of solutions there.
I see Norway is in the "sweet spot" - far to the right (high income) and not high up (low emissions). But is that fair, when to an extent their products are why the rest of us are so high up in emissions? I guess no single graph ever captures the full picture. But very useful nevertheless. Thank you!

Trinidad & Tobago is a big oil & gas producer, and refiner. Really it is a Caribbean version of Kuwait in many ways. I have a vague memory that the T&T fields include some difficult to extract oils, i.e. they require a lot of energy (and emissions) to get the corresponding oil out and refined.

 

[Artful Dodger]

U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch

12 noon

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks

 

[SOULPEDL]

The Saudis burn about 1% of global crude oil demand on summer days just to run domestic air conditioning. And they've got nothing but perfect solar desert everywhere.

I don't know why Arizona is like this... it baffles me.

 

[insaneoctane]

Few weeks back I had a dinner conversation with a stock exchange executive. Its not U.S. exchange but still top ~25 by GDP. The conversation was specifically on ESG and Moody's/S&P's debt ratings regarding Tesla. I asked why he thinks Tesla isn't on the list of top ESG companies but oil company like BP is. He said the reason is the G in ESG- Governance is what took Tesla off the list. One man, the CEO, is preventing Tesla from making the list. Company like BP lobby their way into the list. By 'lobby' you will have to use your imagination and read between the lines. In his words BP kisses ass and Tesla doesn't. He said this is also the reason Tesla doesn't have a higher debt rating. He said this is very unfortunate since major index funds will not include TSLA as the company does not meet criteria.

Our SEC isn't asleep at the wheel but in bed with Wall Street. This is crazy to me as BP and the likes can get better terms for borrowing money and have their market cap inflated as these blind index funds will hold stock based on these corrupt rating agencies. There you go folks your suspicions supported.

I'd rather Tesla and Elon not compromise who they are...don't play their games, even if it delays ESG and premium debt rating status. Ironically it just reveals the rating or membership process to be flawed (which it is). They will have to blink and add them sooner or later. Consider it an extended accumulation opportunity.

 

[Big Time]

Is the 3:1 amount set in stone?

NASDAQ going green perhaps. Hope the MMD is over. Looks like the split was announced around 700 Per share.

 

[wipster]

EV's could invade NASCAR soon, sounds like Plaid specs:

NASCAR contemplates an all-electric racing series

Leaked power point slides indicate that NASCAR could introduce a new electrified racing series as soon as next year.

www.teslarati.com

I would expect any electric Nascar series to be primarily based on the west coast. I don't believe it would be very popular on the east coast as ICE and the "sound of power" is very popular there. Even on the TV broadcasts, especially Fox where they actually have time outs just to listen to the race and cars in surround sound (which I must admit, is pretty cool if you have a good system). Would also expect it to be mainly road courses as opposed to roundy rounds as that would be boring as hell.

But, if Nascar designed it properly and added some BEV car exclusives, such as a standing start and unique pitstops and other things that showed off BEV characteristics, it might be pretty entertaining and good for the industry.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Our SEC isn't asleep at the wheel but in bed with Wall Street. This is crazy to me as BP and the likes can get better terms for borrowing money and have their market cap inflated as these blind index funds will hold stock based on these corrupt rating agencies. There you go folks your suspicions supported.

Even private companies like Moody’s are corrupt, getting their fees from corporate borrowers they are charged to rate. I would love to hear of a better model than a government run SEC.

 

[Ogre]

Few weeks back I had a dinner conversation with a stock exchange executive. Its not U.S. exchange but still top ~25 by GDP. The conversation was specifically on ESG and Moody's/S&P's debt ratings regarding Tesla. I asked why he thinks Tesla isn't on the list of top ESG companies but oil company like BP is. He said the reason is the G in ESG- Governance is what took Tesla off the list. One man, the CEO, is preventing Tesla from making the list. Company like BP lobby their way into the list. By 'lobby' you will have to use your imagination and read between the lines. In his words BP kisses ass and Tesla doesn't. He said this is also the reason Tesla doesn't have a higher debt rating. He said this is very unfortunate since major index funds will not include TSLA as the company does not meet criteria.

Our SEC isn't asleep at the wheel but in bed with Wall Street. This is crazy to me as BP and the likes can get better terms for borrowing money and have their market cap inflated as these blind index funds will hold stock based on these corrupt rating agencies. There you go folks your suspicions supported.

Mentioned this a few pages back, but worth repeating.

Eventually this will all come around. Similar dynamics happened with Apple, just not nearly as bad. Eventually the ratings company will have no choice but to uprate Tesla and many of the index funds will have no choice but to pick up shares. ESG is completely FOS, but many of the others are going to be lapping up shares eventually.

When Tesla shifts from being minority institutional ownership to majority institutional ownership, the retail investors will enjoy a huge surge. It should also stabilize the SP a bit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla's FSD (Full Self Driving) is Worth $675,000 | Farzad Mesbahi on Youtube

"A HOV sticker that saves 5 min a day is worth $5K. What if we give people 45 min a day?" -- Ford CEO​

 

[kanweg]

Mentioned this a few pages back, but worth repeating.

Eventually this will all come around. Similar dynamics happened with Apple, just not nearly as bad. Eventually the ratings company will have no choice but to uprate Tesla and many of the index funds will have no choice but to pick up shares. ESG is completely FOS, but many of the others are going to be lapping up shares eventually.

They were slow to include Tesla in the S&P.

When Tesla shifts from being minority institutional ownership to majority institutional ownership, the retail investors will enjoy a huge surge. It should also stabilize the SP a bit.

Well, we heard that with respect to the inclusion in the S&P too. But reducing the float won’t help. And Tesla as most popular options stock won’t help either (I think. As knowledge about that is well beyond my pay grade).

 

[henchman24]

When Tesla shifts from being minority institutional ownership to majority institutional ownership, the retail investors will enjoy a huge surge. It should also stabilize the SP a bit.

I think it will do the exact opposite of stabilize it... right now there is a large float and a lot of liquidity due to retail. Retail is simply much more likely to buy AND sell compared to a passive fund. Many of the funds that haven't bought in large quantities (especially those restricted from junk bond stocks) are passive funds. When the the investment grade status comes well will see the share price naturally rise as those passive funds increase ownership. Once they have the shares though, the effective float lowers making the price action more volatile. Really the same as the SP500 inclusion... that made the stock more volatile instead of less... it just overall helped the share price because it drove up the overall demand for the stock.

 

[Ogre]

Well, we heard that with respect to the inclusion in the S&P too. But reducing the float won’t help. And Tesla as most popular options stock won’t help either (I think. As knowledge about that is well beyond my pay grade).

I think it will do the exact opposite of stabilize it... right now there is a large float and a lot of liquidity due to retail. Retail is simply much more likely to buy AND sell compared to a passive fund. Many of the funds that haven't bought in large quantities (especially those restricted from junk bond stocks) are passive funds. When the the investment grade status comes well will see the share price naturally rise as those passive funds increase ownership. Once they have the shares though, the effective float lowers making the price action more volatile. Really the same as the SP500 inclusion... that made the stock more volatile instead of less... it just overall helped the share price because it drove up the overall demand for the stock.

It's a fair point.

There will be fewer shares total, but seems to be the cost basis on those shares will be much higher at that point.

Status quo?

 

[henchman24]

It's a fair point.

There will be fewer shares total, but seems to be the cost basis on those shares will be much higher at that point.

Status quo?

The way I look at it is that it sets a higher floor on things, but makes the swings more violent. Even in the absolute worst times of the SP500 era, the floor is ~580 and in this bear market we couldn't see it get below 620. Which is higher than any point pre-announcement IIRC. I don't think the next round of inclusion will have that level of impact... but we might see the floor set more in the ~700-730 range even on the biggest drawdowns. Flip side... more buying pressure on a lower float can shoot the stock higher in a very quick fashion.

(I'm not saying these are absolute floors if economics of the world or company change)

 

[NicoV]

I'd actually like for TSLA to become the largest company in the world (by market cap) and stay junk-rated.

That will truly expose these credit ratings for what they are: junk.

A trillion dollar company with junk debt rating, but without debt. That’s like giving a zero star rating to the software of a company that doesn’t make software. But if it would make software, it would certainly be very bad.

 

[Electroman]

The U.S. made a breakthrough battery discovery — then gave the technology to China

Taxpayers spent $15 million on research to build a breakthrough battery. Then the U.S. government gave it to China.

www.npr.org

Why is Tesla not considering, 'Vanadium Redox Flow' batteries for grid storage?

I see 5 ‘funny’ and 3 ‘disagree’ emojis. I can understand ‘disagrees’ and one poster was kind enough to educate me with quite a few reasons why this tech is not mature or suitable yet.

But wondering what is so funny about what I asked? Just curious.

 

[Buckminster]

Recommended guidelines for posting tonight:

1. If in doubt, don't post or put it in off topic galore
2. Add value - don't post SP or quotes from the presentation
3. Group your points together into bigger posts
4. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted
5. After posting, check to see if you were ninjaed (someone else posted the same thing before you) and delete your post if so

Say.com questions
Last years presentation

Other relevant threads:
2022 shareholder meeting in-person
2022 Shareholder vote
TSLA Stock Split
Gigafactory locations and products
Cybertruck forum
Investor Engineering Discussions
and finally:
How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

 

[Big Time]

2 Day Vol Profile

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think it will do the exact opposite of stabilize it... right now there is a large float and a lot of liquidity due to retail. Retail is simply much more likely to buy AND sell compared to a passive fund. Many of the funds that haven't bought in large quantities (especially those restricted from junk bond stocks) are passive funds. When the the investment grade status comes well will see the share price naturally rise as those passive funds increase ownership. Once they have the shares though, the effective float lowers making the price action more volatile. Really the same as the SP500 inclusion... that made the stock more volatile instead of less... it just overall helped the share price because it drove up the overall demand for the stock.

I think our lack of stability is due to that large float. MM's can control huge blocks of actual share and be confident naked shorting since there's always plenty of shares to steal from retail.

Once institutional holders take a massive chunk of the float, those kinds of shenanigans get infinitely more dangerous.

Since January we've seen naked shorting drive SP to an absolute bottom in support of MM options market profits. Would that have been possible after such a sick 1Q earning report had the float been tighter?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Recommended guidelines for posting tonight:

1. If in doubt, don't post or put it in off topic galore
2. Add value - don't post SP or quotes from the presentation
3. Group your points together into bigger posts
4. Don't post until you have caught up and confirmed it hasn't already been posted
5. After posting, check to see if you were ninjaed (someone else posted the same thing before you) and delete your post if so

Say.com questions
Last years presentation

Other relevant threads:
2022 shareholder meeting in-person
2022 Shareholder vote
TSLA Stock Split
Gigafactory locations and products
Cybertruck forum
Investor Engineering Discussions
and finally:
How much $ to retire and how to fund your lifestyle in retirement

In a rational universe we simply have a 2022 Shareholders Meeting Game-day thread. Problem solved.

 

[henchman24]

I think our lack of stability is due to that large float. MM's can control huge blocks of actual share and be confident naked shorting since there's always plenty of shares to steal from retail.

Once institutional holders take a massive chunk of the float, those kinds of shenanigans get infinitely more dangerous.

Since January we've seen naked shorting drive SP to an absolute bottom in support of MM options market profits. Would that have been possible after such a sick 1Q earning report had the float been tighter?

Possible, but it isn't like the naked shorting has gone away at all since SP500 inclusion. The amount of the float being naked shorted might be lower, but I'd argue the impact the naked shorting has is higher. I don't see why this pattern of pre/post SP500 inclusion would change.