Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

Does anyone here care what trash Robert Reich is writing about Elon? Maybe not. Or maybe someone cares to know the enemy, to be better prepared to counteract his influence. So here are excerpts from the mass-email Reich sent today.

[Musk] didn't take [a seat on the Twitter board] because he'd have to be responsible to all other shareholders. Now, he doesn’t have to be accountable to anyone.​

Basic fact: Musk is still accountable to all other shareholders... and consumers... and laws and regulators.

When billionaires like Elon Musk justify their motives by using “freedom,” beware.​

Robert, there are no billionaires like Elon Musk. He has no yachts (ever), no mansions (now), no private island (he founded Tesla and SpaceX instead), no harem of supermodels (no time for them), no time for much of anything except trying to save humanity from climate catastrophe, world-ending asteroids, super-evil AI, and democracy-ending censorship. You don't know the man you are attacking.

...corporate raiders like Carl Icahn and Michael Milken. Their MO was to find corporations whose assets were worth more than their stock value, borrow against them, acquire enough shares to force them to cut costs... and cash in.​

What does this have to do with Elon?

Musk said last week that he doesn’t care about the economics of the deal and is pursuing it because it is "extremely important to the future of civilization." Fine, but who anointed Musk to decide the future of civilization?​

Every person who ever bought his products, services, or company stock. He started from nothing.

Consumers of social don’t have much freedom of choice. If consumers don’t like what Musk does with Twitter, they cannot simply switch to another Twitter-like platform. [...also...] Join my Substack.​

What is stopping you from massively growing your Substack platform, other than you?

Unlike [Musk's] ambitions to upend transportation and interstellar flight, this one is dangerous. It might well upend democracy.​

Upending interstellar flight and upending democracy are equally likely from Elon Musk.

I used to like Robert Reich. I liked his criticism of a certain ex-President, and his apparent concern about corruption by big money. But he doesn't understand that billionaires are not all the same, just as black people, Jews, and women are not all the same. He is prejudiced against billionaires, to the point of intellectual negligence, dishonesty, and cognitive dissonance.

That's the power of freedom of speech. It lets you see who a person really is.

 

[Buckminster]

Walter Isaacson contemplating the need to write more chapters following the new Twitter chapter:

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Indeed. Even if Musk does not need to sell any TSLA to fund the deal, the market will still assume he needs to. I reckon the share price will be held down until at least after the Twitter deal is completed, and that could take quite a while as some regulators will likely call the deal in for review. Because they can, not necessarily because they should. I hope I'm wrong but trading flat for a few quarters may be as good as it gets. Personally I think Musk acquiring Twitter is a dumb idea but it's his money, and his decision how thinly he spreads his time.

We will find out how that deal is being financed by Friday. They have 4 days to file the relevant form to the SEC. So we'll know for certain if our TSLA shares are Moon or Doom on next Monday.

I still don't really believe Elon will sell shares of TSLA to finance this deal, as it goes against everything else he has ever said about his TSLA. Even the selling last year was simply to pay off taxes on his exercised options and he had more net shares at the end of that saga.

 

[Buckminster]

3rd April P&D - 1100
25th April ER - 1100
14th June pre Shareholders - 1100
16th June Shareholders - 1100
3rd July P&D - 1300
25th July ER - 1500
10th Sep Split timeline announced - 1700
1st October Split - 1900
3rd October P&D - 1700
25th October ER - 1700
10th Nov new shorts get in -1500
25th Jan ER - 1900

obvs

Update:

14th June pre Shareholders - 1100
16th June Shareholders - 1100
3rd July P&D - 1300
25th July ER - 1500
10th Sep Split timeline announced - 1700
29th Sep - Confirmation Elon won't sell shares to fund Twitter - 1800
1st October Split - 1900
3rd October P&D - 1700
25th October ER - 1700
10th Nov new shorts get in -1500
25th Jan ER - 1900

Note: - some dates and prices may vary.

 

[samppa]

Any educated guesses on when Twitter acquisition will happen?

 

[Usain]

I used to like Robert Reich. I liked his criticism of a certain ex-President, and his apparent concern about corruption by big money. But he doesn't understand that billionaires are not all the same, just as black people, Jews, and women are not all the same. He is prejudiced against billionaires, to the point of intellectual negligence, dishonesty, and cognitive dissonance.

I'm with you on this. But I still generally like Robert Reich and I think he's a very bright man with good intentions.

If it were Jeff Bezos buying Twitter, Reich's comments might be a little more palatable and we both might even agree with him.

You are correct that Reich doesn't understand Elon. If all you know about Elon is that he's the richest man in the world then having the richest man in the world in control of a powerful platform like Twitter should give you pause.

But here's the rub. The most efficient form of government is the benevolent dictatorship. It's even better than democracy. The problem is finding a benevolent dictator. They are exceedingly rare. I think that for all his faults, Elon does try to do the right thing. He will try hard to be the benevolent dictator at Twitter.

That's a little scary, but it will probably work out OK.

 

[nativewolf]

I'm with you on this. But I still generally like Robert Reich and I think he's a very bright man with good intentions.

If it were Jeff Bezos buying Twitter, Reich's comments might be a little more palatable and we both might even agree with him.

You are correct that Reich doesn't understand Elon. If all you know about Elon is that he's the richest man in the world then having the richest man in the world in control of a powerful platform like Twitter should give you pause.

But here's the rub. The most efficient form of government is the benevolent dictatorship. It's even better than democracy. The problem is finding a benevolent dictator. They are exceedingly rare. I think that for all his faults, Elon does try to do the right thing. He will try hard to be the benevolent dictator at Twitter.

That's a little scary, but it will probably work out OK.

Just COMPLETELY WRONG. First, there are no "benevolent" dictatorships. Secondly dictatorships are not efficient. What a pile of crap post. Most importantly Twitter is not a government it is a freaking company.

A company is not a form of government. It is a vehicle to create profit. Do not conflate. if EM buys twitter he owns it and it's up to him to figure out what he wants to do with it. It is not a government, just a company that EM owns. Just like we own a forest management company, the clients and employees can work with us or not and it is their decision and can easily go elsewhere (ok, clients can't because we are so much better than the competition). If someone ends up as a minority shareholder in twitter than eyes wide open, those usually end up as terrible deals. For employees the job market is scorching, they don't like it ...leave.

Dictatorships are vile...period.

 

[jhm]

Certainly they could. They would need to have horrible judgement to do that.
Ally is a traditional indirect auto lender. That means their business model to to lend to auto dealers for floor planning and to buy loans and leases originated by dealers. Surprise! Their primary business base is GM dealers, hampered because GM reentered the business themselves. They have raised retail money to a degree but that has not really worked very well. Nominally Detroit-based they are really Charlotte, NC based with Bank of America. It is very difficult to imagine a worse idea for Tesla, and it's a not too good idea for anyone at all. Note: perhaps I am hampered by too much personal knowledge of the company history, the management and customer base.

Seriously, does anybody think that ICE auto dealer servicing is a good base from which to build?

It was not a serious suggestion.

This is also not a serious suggestion, but it seems Elon and Jack are getting along. Could could their be a mash up of Square and Tesla?

I really don't see much innovation around lending and leasing required for most of Tesla sales. Mostly you just need financing integrated with online sales process. Where financial innovation could be most beneficial is in financing robotaxis and maybe integrating that with POS fares. Maybe Square sets up in-car card readers. But even here I don't see much novelty, and Tesla could run the whole show without a financial partner.

 

[nativewolf]

Certainly they could. They would need to have horrible judgement to do that.
Ally is a traditional indirect auto lender. That means their business model to to lend to auto dealers for floor planning and to buy loans and leases originated by dealers. Surprise! Their primary business base is GM dealers, hampered because GM reentered the business themselves. They have raised retail money to a degree but that has not really worked very well. Nominally Detroit-based they are really Charlotte, NC based with Bank of America. It is very difficult to imagine a worse idea for Tesla, and it's a not too good idea for anyone at all. Note: perhaps I am hampered by too much personal knowledge of the company history, the management and customer base.

Seriously, does anybody think that ICE auto dealer servicing is a good base from which to build?

I am "hampered" by that same knowledge and I too can't believe anyone with a brain would buy Ally...especially today.

 

[willow_hiller]

Interesting amendment to Twitter's Schedule 13D: https://fintel.io/doc/sec/1494730/000110465922049844/tm2213189d8_sc13da.htm

Technically speaking, X Holdings I is owned by parent company X Holdings II. Twitter will be merging with X Holdings I so it becomes fully owned by X Holdings II.

Relevant question for TSLA, now what happens with X Holdings III? It's not mentioned in this filing at all.

 

[jbcarioca]

Well, it's still possible JP Morgan is in error too. I mean they obviously sent out something they shouldn't have, it's possible the split count is also incorrect.

Until we get the actual info from Tesla directly I wouldn't be too sure of anything.

Until shareholders have approved the additional share issuance it could not be true. Shareholders hey not approved additional share issuance. It is possible that such an action could have been planned. Either way no custodian can legally send notification of a corporate action that has not yet been taken.

 

[AudubonB]

….The problem is finding a benevolent dictator. They are exceedingly rare. I think that for all his faults, Elon does try to do the right thing. He will try hard to be the benevolent dictator at Twitter.

…

I am, by word and by ten years of deed, quite benevolent. And I’ve often reminded all that this is not a democracy. As long as one is not interested in enriching oneself at the expense of one’s followers (check), or seeking after fame and glory (check check), then, @nativewolf and others, it’s not so difficult.

 

[UkNorthampton]

UK car deals. I get emails about discounted new cars in UK - they are ones dealers are keen to offload. EVs - lower discounts than previously and lower than ICE.

Tesla related - strong demand for EVs and Tesla are often best placed to deliver a car more quickly than lagacy. Fewer/lower rival EV discounts means that Tesla are relatively better priced against a highly discounted EV.

Spoiler: Details-Discounts-Observations

1. Fewer than normal EVs in list
2. EV discounts smaller than ICE
3. Biggest discounts on Audi and Jaguar
4. VW info shows ICE vs EV discounts is interesting, even for ID models which haven't had the best press. Further anecdotal evidence that EV demand up, ICE down. Positive for pure EV player Tesla
   1. 
5. Worst EV (biggest discounts) is I-Pace, all other EVs below
   1. 
   2. 

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon Musk, Co-founder of Twitter.

 

[jbcarioca]

I am, by word and by ten years of deed, quite benevolent. And I’ve often reminded all that this is not a democracy. As long as one is not interested in enriching oneself at the expense of one’s followers (check), or seeking after fame and glory (check check), then, @nativewolf and others, it’s not so difficult.

Please define "exceedingly rare". As we consider social media platforms, such as this one, that are predicated on shared interests and then consider this subforum, with even more circumscribed interests, we nearly perfectly describe and environment in which the participants choose to have autocratic rule.
Politically there is the case of Singapore, repeatedly choosing near-dictatorship since separation from Malaysia.

These are not dictatorships in fact. They are deliberate choices to cede some elements of free speech and free actions. These happen because of shared interests being more valued than are absolute freedoms.

In these cases there is the free option for inhabitants/participants to leave whenever they choose to.

Hence, not really dictatorships at all. This does seem relevant to me precisely because the exploits of Mr. Elon Musk are increasingly conflated with the interests of TSLA shareholders, SpaceX, The Boring Company, Neuralink, Starlink and now Twitter. It was bad enough when there was obsessive attention to his social and family life.

This all becomes tiresome. Elon Musk is definitely not anything resembling a normal person. Hence, I really don't wish to treat him as such. On another different issue, key person insurance at some huge amount might be a good choice, were it not for the potential adverse actions that might engender.

HODL, I will, anyway.

 

[ZeApelido]

He is prejudiced against billionaires, to the point of intellectual negligence, dishonesty, and cognitive dissonance.

And his followers need to take math courses too.

 

[Nocturnal]

Relevant question for TSLA, now what happens with X Holdings III? It's not mentioned in this filing at all.

I'd guess it's for Starlink.

 

[UncaNed]

And to what, exactly, might we owe THIS little MMD???

Don’t ask why, just Buy!

I'm doing that too!!

Seriously, is there something we don't know...???

Apparently. I thought surely one of us would offer some perspective by now... Adding another little order in case this continues...

 

[Mark Alset]

Wow! What a drop.

 

[DFibRL8R]

And to what, exactly, might we owe THIS little MMD???

Don’t ask why, just Buy!