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A side effect of this, should the lockdown continue, is it might end the "post-covid" run-up in oil futures.

The bottom was gonna fall out this spring at some point, but the SPR daily supply release combined with this lockdown should halve Brent futures real fast.

I wonder if this is taken into account at all when the decisions are being made.
 
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Reactions: wtlloyd
Oops,View attachment 792332Here is the most relevant Tesla one:
excerpt: "...75% of Tesla, Inc.’s suppliers are Taiwanese..."
But that isn't your question:

Although Taiwan does not have major local car brands the traditional Japanese manufacturers have branded ib Taiwan.
Perhaps the most famous over the years is:
1987-get-that-yue-loong-feeling-with-a-taiwanese-nissan

Taiwan not only has Apple's largest supplier by far, ignoring practically every other tech company,Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, Inc Known more widely as Foxconn but they also have TSMC, but everyone knows them, that first word is 'Taiwan' by the way.

So, yes, Taiwan has an amazingly vibrant auto industry, mostly building foreign designed cars and supplying an amazing variety of high tech and other parts to the world. Every major Taiwanese company has operations in China too, and the majority of them are widely thought to be Chinese themselves. (they all look alike, doncha know?).

It would be very easy for Tesla to set up a major factory in Taiwan, they would not even need to change suppliers, just the shipping address. The big question is why? Since there are no obis advantages from a supplier, tariff or cost perspective much less salaries, it seems a strange choice. OTOH a CKD might be nice to do. The infrastructure to support more teslas is already well in place:
The market is ripe for the picking:
"Taiwan, with 24 million people, is a relatively small EV market. Tesla accounted for more than 90.35% of the EV market with, 5,746 cars sold in the past year, up from 3,136 in 2019. And with more than 4,000 units in sales, the company's Model 3 topped the charts." from Asia-Pacific Research Exchange

Sorry for the overly detailed rebuttal. FWIW, OT, I have a strong personal affinity to Tainan and the whole of Taiwan. It is one of the most underrated places in the world, in my opinion.
Well, sheeesh. I knew that; you dodged my question AND gave me a “disagree”.
All because I didn’t write auto ASSEMBLY plant.

The other way to look at it: the Taiwanese are the anti-GM/Ford. They make all the parts; just don’t assemble them. That’s the opposite for the US legacy “manufacturers “.
 
Berlin is starting production with motor/driveline units and bty packs imported from Shanghai. This needs to be a priority when production is restarted.
Or sooner. If indications are that a prolonged shutdown/isolation will be taking place (say, another month) Tesla would likely resume manufacture of those critical components utilizing a shelter in place at the factory.
 
Lol, if you google your exact question above, the 3rd search result is "Fremont opens new 250 KW Supercharger". Seems to be an issue... :D

But here you go anyway, since you asked:


Only $32 CAD, but Yelp reviews are mixed due to risk of spills... :p
[

!

this (more discrete) one was invented by a guy in a wheelchair, so, someone who is all too familiar with the inconveniences of having to pee and bad solution.

 
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Or sooner. If indications are that a prolonged shutdown/isolation will be taking place (say, another month) Tesla would likely resume manufacture of those critical components utilizing a shelter in place at the factory.

OR send from US ... it's good to have options.

When we only had Fremont, the worry about the San Andreas fault line was somewhere back in my head all the time :)
 
I'm old enough to remember the last time a Tesla factory was shutdown for over a month and production lowered and I thought I was smart enough to predict a temporary stock drop. Sold the stock waiting for a drop that never came in April 2020, luckily I bought back with "only" a 20% loss.

View attachment 792359

I'm not saying the stock is going up, down, sideways. I'm just saying, do you really think you know? :cool:

1649686233171.png
 
On the topic of keeping eyes off the ticker, did anyone else spot this Tweet from yesterday?


This depicts a cell that's 46 mm in diameter and 120 mm high, or a 46120. All of the research we saw on battery day talked about the optimal battery diameter, but as far as I know, Tesla didn't specify any limits on cell heights. Maybe a taller cell for Semi or Cybertruck, that would otherwise require stacking cells?
 
The Shanghai factory lockdown brings a lot of fear to the TSLA ticker. Since fear is caused by the unknown, I thought I'd make a comparison to the first lockdown in Wuhan.

2020

The Wuhan lockdown ran from January 23rd 2020 until April 8 2020. (77 days)

Gigafactory Shanghai was temporarily shut down for (only) approximately two weeks by order of the government on 29 January 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Production resumed 10 February (12 days), as did for suppliers and other companies around the country.

2022

Gigafactory Shanghai was shut down on March 28th 2022.
A 77 day lockdown would result in opening on June 12th 2022.
A 12 day lockdown would result in opening on April 9th 2022. This hasn't happened so this possibility is already ruled out.

Differences

This time we're talking Omicron variant instead of the original COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2). This new variant (Omicron) was first detected in specimens collected on November 11, 2021 in Botswana and on November 14, 2021 in South Africa. It has shown a faster rate of spread but also lower chances of severe illness/hospitalization/death, especially if one is properly vaccinated.

The high rate of spread could show how incompatible/inefficient the current zero tolerance lockdowns in China can be. Let's hope they switch gears, adapting to the new variant, as to prevent economic meltdown. Worst case the lockdowns could be longer than the Wuhan one.

Conclusion

I started researching this post to ease the worries, but on the contrary my doubts have increased. Giga Shanghai could very well be out for a large part of this quarter. However, this would put such a strain on the local economy that I'm inclined to think the local government will adapt its strategy sooner than later. Fingers crossed.

Either way, all this won't matter by end of 2022. (Go Berlin, Go Austin!)
 
On the topic of keeping eyes off the ticker, did anyone else spot this Tweet from yesterday?


This depicts a cell that's 46 mm in diameter and 120 mm high, or a 46120. All of the research we saw on battery day talked about the optimal battery diameter, but as far as I know, Tesla didn't specify any limits on cell heights. Maybe a taller cell for Semi or Cybertruck, that would otherwise require stacking cells?
If they're being forced to cool cells from the sides anyway, might as well make em taller!
 
If they're being forced to cool cells from the sides anyway, might as well make em taller!
True. I could imagine a form factor like this for Semi, where the height of the floor in the vehicle is not as limited as in current models.

Also this would prove efficient in production since with the same amount of steps (rolling the anode/cathode and putting it in the shell) you create more battery capacity. Reducing costs again.
 
Well, sheeesh. I knew that; you dodged my question AND gave me a “disagree”.
All because I didn’t write auto ASSEMBLY plant.

The other way to look at it: the Taiwanese are the anti-GM/Ford. They make all the parts; just don’t assemble them. That’s the opposite for the US legacy “manufacturers “.
Aw, so sorry. FWIW, they have been manufacturing, not just assembling, since the Yue Loong 1970's 510:
Indeed it was a licensed Datsun Bluebird aka 510. Licensed and manufactured not just assembled.
Beyond that they make all those parts for everyone else.
They can also walk and chew gum at the same time, but there was a fine if that gum is spitted out. Shades of Singapore!
You are really such a kind man, for an Alaskan.
 
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I have made the drive from Seattle to the SF Bay Area multiple times in a single day. That's just over 860 miles one way. Most of it was on the boring straight I-5 on Autopilot so I just sat there and watched the scenery going by. 2018 LR AWD 3 here, not even going out of my way to purposely try and choose the 250 kW Superchargers on the route. In fact my routing was based on which SC stops had In-N-Out Burgers next to them. 😂
How is that possible? Assuming a (ridiculous) average speed of 86MPH, that's 20 hours to get back to Seattle. How could you then make the "drive from Seattle to the SF Bay Area " again within a single day?
 
If they're being forced to cool cells from the sides anyway, might as well make em taller!
I would have thought cooling from the top was better (depending on where heat generated & where anode/cathode are, I forget). If they've found that side-cooling is fine, then I would have thought production of a taller cell would be a great idea. So much of the hard work of manufacturing is at the ends. Fewer, longer cells means fewer cells to test, less to control, fewer chips needed - but obviously depends on the space to use them.

Although there is a possibility that rolling is harder if the cell is longer.

Nice long cells for Optimus' legs and arms. Double/larger height for Cybertruck? Ah... Semi / HGV (I struggle to use the word semi in polite conversation, I'm half serious).
 
Lol, if you google your exact question above, the 3rd search result is "Fremont opens new 250 KW Supercharger". Seems to be an issue... :D

But here you go anyway, since you asked:


Only $32 CAD, but Yelp reviews are mixed due to risk of spills... :p

View attachment 792207

Cheers!
Hey, they can cross market with the FSD feature for added safety and comfort!
 
How is that possible? Assuming a (ridiculous) average speed of 86MPH, that's 20 hours to get back to Seattle. How could you then make the "drive from Seattle to the SF Bay Area " again within a single day?
It's a 15 hour day of driving; 800 miles. I've also done it several times.
 
On the topic of keeping eyes off the ticker, did anyone else spot this Tweet from yesterday?


This depicts a cell that's 46 mm in diameter and 120 mm high, or a 46120. All of the research we saw on battery day talked about the optimal battery diameter, but as far as I know, Tesla didn't specify any limits on cell heights. Maybe a taller cell for Semi or Cybertruck, that would otherwise require stacking cells?

That's super interesting, I hadn't considered they might make taller cells.... 🤔