Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Lilium up 18% yesterday on rumours that Tesla may buy them.

 

[JusRelax]

Is Elon considering a move off of twitter? Or maybe someone (potentially some governing body) requested Elon to post this poll?

EDIT: Nevermind... reading my twitter feed some more, it seems this may be directly about twitter itself.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507259709224632344

 

[Maddin0r]

Lilium up 18% yesterday on rumours that Tesla may buy them.

Where did the rumor come from if I may ask?
Google doesn't come up with anything ... ?

Lilium is a German company with relatively well-known German investor Frank Thelen, who is an extreme Tesla bull.

 

[mongo]

Does Texas direct local delivery matter that much overall?

All other US states are further from Austin than their border of Texas (or the straight line path for non-contiguous states).
Therefore, delivery to any non-Texan purchaser requires driving past the border of Texas.
Tesla car carriers usually return empty.
Therefore, delivery from Austin to any non-Texan purchaser involves a car carrier to leaving the state of Texas and returning empty.
Therefore, the only impact of Tesla not being able to deliver vehicle directly to Texas residents is the inherent inefficiency of driving a car carrier to the closest border (no, I'm not checking if bordering states block sales or if that matters, it's moot) and back to delivery point. Louisiana is about 300 miles East. Doubling that for a round trip back to Austin is the equivilent of a one way trip to Memphis.
In other words, east coast deliveries cost more than Texan deliveries. Further, Austin to border to a Texan is still better than Fremont to Texas (1,700 miles one way Fremont to Austin).

Delivery fees are legally required to be the same regardless of destination. Any Texas demographic inefficiency is soaked up by that fee in aggregate. So, unless Tesla is under charging for Fremont to all of the US, it can't hurt the bottom line (ignoring long haul rail vs over the raid differences).

Yes, it is worse environmentally, and is a waste of resources, but other than that I don't see a major issue. (One could even say the car carriers going back and forth are advertising in Texas)

 

[Singuy]

Possible rejection of qqq at 361-363 today. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up red. Will be surprised if we break through.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

BARRON'S Tesla’s Winning Streak Hits 8 Days. Not Every Stock Move Makes Sense.

You don't say!

 

[lascavarian]

Is Elon considering a move off of twitter? Or maybe someone (potentially some governing body) requested Elon to post this poll?

EDIT: Nevermind... reading my twitter feed some more, it seems this may be directly about twitter itself.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507259709224632344

Just to offer an alternative view, Jack seems to be attracted to the crypto ponzi play, it would seem likely that Elon is interested in taking a majority position in twit and Jack might be inclined to go along with it.

The case could be made that speech is never free but really a case of affordability. Some microphones are expensive and speech can be consequential.

Speech is popular and weasels have worked hard to monetize it effectively.

I could easily see this, in conjunction with exiting Endeavor, as a prelude to something.

 

[JRP3]

Doug has always been more than fair to Tesla with his reviews. Watch his review of the Model S Plaid. He is NOT being paid by “interested” parties...he is as fair as you could get from a YouTube. You might not like his style, but he likes Tesla.

He's always been inconsistent and often promoted outright Tesla FUD. He's either ignorant or dishonest, or a bit of both.

 

[The Accountant]

Any concerns along those lines are just more reasons to hold a fast-growing company like TSLA. You want to hold companies doing the disrupting, not the ones being disrupted.

This!
The Effective Federal Funds Rate rose from 0.20% in 2015 to 2.40% in 2018.
Let's see how Amazon's stock performed:

Not too shabby!
I know this is only a sample of 1 . . .but it shows that a rising Fed Funds Rate does not automatically mean that all stocks will decline. Some will do just fine.

 

[ZachF]

The information about US Jan and Feb sales combined with China’s increased production so far puts Q1 at around 340-350k from my estimates.

Depends on if those US sales data numbers were accurate

2m+ run rate end of year puts Tesla’s revenue basically at the same level as Ford, GM, BMW, and Honda, which are all now currently in the ~$120b range. I suspect they’ll hit $90 billion for the year as a whole.

15% profit margin on that $100b+ basically makes Tesla the second most profitable automaker after Toyota too, if we smooth out the profits of the major automakers over several years.

 

[JRP3]

I'd like to see Tesla break the law, sell some cars directly in Texas, with Elon handling it personally, and then have him dare them to come arrest him.

 

[ZachF]

I'd like to see Tesla break the law, sell some cars directly in Texas, with Elon handling it personally, and then have him dare them to come arrest him.

Tesla will probably employ more Texans soon than all of the stealerships combined, I imagine.

 

[2daMoon]

I'd like to see Tesla break the law, sell some cars directly in Texas, with Elon handling it personally, and then have him dare them to come arrest him.

With the caveat that the Tesla legal team has developed a good working strategy to deploy in the court room that would persuade a judge or jury to strike down the specific statute causing the problem.

 

[JRP3]

947 vehicle "recall" for Tesla back up cams

UPDATE 1-Tesla recalls 947 U.S. vehicles over delay in rearview image display, NHTSA says

Tesla Inc is recalling 947 vehicles in the United States because the rearview image may not immediately display when they begin to reverse, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said. The automaker told the NHTSA the recall covers some 2018-2019 Model S, Model X, and...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[ZeApelido]

Would love your thoughts, especially those who were experienced dot-com period in stocks


I am trying to understand current situation, and here's what I see:
A lot of money was pumped into the system post covid breakout (in fact even before covid, at least since QE-1), both Monetary policy (Interest rates, QE), and Fiscal policy. At a time when production went down, demand went up due to this extraordinary money supply, causing inflation.

Housing was pumped with explosive combination of all-time low mortgage rates (thanks to incremental MBS purchases until a few weeks ago), and high asset prices (high stock valuations) which made down payments easy for large many.
Now there's runaway inflation. For example, if we take housing, house prices go up, people take cash out and invest in buying more homes. Why? because house price are going up. This lead to the vicious cycle.

Is it the case that, (1) this money supply pumped into the system still being around, and (2) tens of millions of new “traders” (stock and options) is likely stopping the collapse of the market? Because, there's a lot of money on the put side too, both retail and institutional?

Do you share the view that for controlling the inflation, money needs to be sucked out, asset valuations must be brought down?
2006-2008 likely is not a similar situation, we didn't have so much money pumped into the system at that time?

I wasn't in stock market during Dot com bubble.
Was there such high money supply during that time? I read the asset valuations were high, likely even higher than now (not nominal)

If we take housing, looks like we will have a step-up inflation that will not be reversed, offset but will have to live with?
Home prices went up ~40% from Jan2019, and mortgage rates today are same as in Jan-2019. Incomes didn't grow anywhere close to that. This means, Fed robbed the opportunity of housing from millions, and that too from those who are already at the bottom of wealth pyramid. The only way this can be corrected is by bringing down house prices, because interest rates can’t be brought down with the current inflation?

Do you see strong parallels to Dot com period, on the risk front (asset devaluation)?

@Artful Dodger @StealthP3D @FrankSG @The Accountant @generalenthu @ZeApelido @bxr140

??? Something doesn't seem right here

 

[2daMoon]

947 vehicle "recall" for Tesla back up cams

UPDATE 1-Tesla recalls 947 U.S. vehicles over delay in rearview image display, NHTSA says

Tesla Inc is recalling 947 vehicles in the United States because the rearview image may not immediately display when they begin to reverse, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said. The automaker told the NHTSA the recall covers some 2018-2019 Model S, Model X, and...

finance.yahoo.com

So, SP back to the 700s then?

/S​

 

[Krugerrand]

I'd like to see Tesla break the law, sell some cars directly in Texas, with Elon handling it personally, and then have him dare them to come arrest him.

Agreed. I said that a long time ago. Perhaps a good time to do it would be at an official ribbon cutting handover party with fireworks, a big audience, live video AND cookies!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Lilium up 18% yesterday on rumours that Tesla may buy them.

I would love that ! I bought some Lillium at 2 bucks the other day. They have the most compelling VTOL design out there. If they can get the right batteries !

 

[Dangerous Fish]

So, SP back to the 700s then?

UPDATE 1-Tesla recalls 947 U.S. vehicles over delay in rearview image display, NHTSA says

Tesla Inc is recalling 947 vehicles in the United States because the rearview image may not immediately display when they begin to reverse, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said. The automaker told the NHTSA the recall covers some 2018-2019 Model S, Model X, and...

finance.yahoo.com

/S​

That 'recall' is likely to grow to more than 947. Quite a few reports I've seen of it happening in the UK, including on mine. It's going to be one of those OTA recalls though so would be good if they could jump on it quickly before the number creeps up.

 

[MP3Mike]

That 'recall' is likely to grow to more than 947. Quite a few reports I've seen of it happening in the UK, including on mine.

That recall won't grow, as NHTSA recalls are US only. What firmware version are you on? (This "recall" only applies to version 2021.44.25 through 2021.44.25.2. And TeslaFi only shows 20 vehicles still on it.) 2021.44.30 fixed it, which began deployment on 12/30/2021. So it has been fixed for a while now.