Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

New Yorkers check your spam folders I had an email from Tesla Engage in my junk this morning

just a few clicks and the NY Gov and other politicians receive form letter below

This message is in response to the following article:
New York — Support Direct Sales
New York — Support Direct Sales
--

Hello,
I am reaching out as a New Yorker in support of removing New York’s restriction on direct sales of electric vehicles by EV manufacturers. The current law protects car dealers at the expense of progress on climate goals, air quality, and consumer protection. Please help bring more jobs and clean cars to our state now.
We can’t let politics and protectionism for powerful interest groups stand in the way of progress with so much at stake.
Thank you.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well slap me and call me Shirley.....I just might have to dip my toes in some short term calls again. I learned my lesson after the Q1 P/D release pop and drop and sold my 1100/1150 Jan 7th Calls on Monday. I still have some of the proceeds from that in my account. Time to do some call shopping.

Looks like Wall St's in very firm control of this thing. I'm actually rather impressed that they managed to drop it to lower than Friday's share price. Clearly they were positioned to ride TSLA lower and the Q4 P/D's caught them by surprise. All they needed was 1 trading day to regroup.

 

[Nocturnal]

QQQ green but TSLA still down 2.5%.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Next stop: 10-day MA

Over the past 10 weeks, the MA(10) has been either resistance or support about 12 times, and the MA(50) about 4 times: (so yes, we could expect the 10-day to play an outsized roll going forward into Earnings)

Honestly, I just follow all this T/A crepe because that's how hedgies and shortzes think (and it's ALL they've got, TBH).

Wake me in 5 years time. I expect the SP to be around $8K. Meanwhile, what I really care about is how Tesla is doing (not worried at all about how TSLA is doing).

Cheers!

 

[ZachF]

Interrupting the SP drama with a pretty good Tech Insider look at the basis for MY's 5-star crash test rating. All things being equal, I know what car I want my family riding in:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1478842905963999241

Watching those videos of the cars land right back on their wheels even after tipping more than 90 degrees is always impressive.

Compare that to other ICE suvs which will tip over if an occupant farts in the wrong direction.

 

[PeterJA]

Well, I never said anything about doomsday, but rather that we were going to head back to a mid-point between 2021 lows and this 1200+ top tick, and then retrace.. if you want a somewhat doomsday prediction, that 666 level IS just a giant bullseye.

That is indeed rather doomy. What do you think of Steven's graph of earnings estimates and share price?

 

[navguy12]

An EV skeptic emailed me this link today:

Prairie Tesla owners battle loss of heat amid extreme cold weather after software update

A number of Tesla owners across the prairies complain they are experiencing heating issues in their vehicles at a time when temperatures have plummeted.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

 

[CorneliusXX]

Interesting graphic, and I believe sharing profits with the dealer is a huge disadvantage to legacy auto.....I don't believe 16.5% of new vehicle costs go to dealers though, that seems way too high IMO. Anyone here have any experience to comment?

It wouldn't surprise me particularly if dealership originated finance is included. They amount of fees that can be buried in the monthly payment is rather egregious.

 

[woodisgood]

Well slap me and call me Shirley.....I just might have to dip my toes in some short term calls again. I learned my lesson after the Q1 P/D release pop and drop and sold my 1100/1150 Jan 7th Calls on Monday. I still have some of the proceeds from that in my account. Time to do some call shopping.

Looks like Wall St's in very firm control of this thing. I'm actually rather impressed that they managed to drop it to lower than Friday's share price. Clearly they were positioned to ride TSLA lower and the Q4 P/D's caught them by surprise. All they needed was 1 trading day to regroup.

Every time they seem to get caught off guard, the market suddenly seems to need to “rotate away from growth stocks” for one reason or another. And before someone jumps in with “Haha, TSLA is not the center of the market universe,” it actually is, with TSLA options being the tail that wags the NASDAQ dog.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479135353500012550

 

[Dangerous Fish]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479135353500012550

DFTM should be the new HODL

 

[LightngMcQueen]

I don't follow APPL. My first and only stock on U.S. Markets is TSLA. Based on what I've learned these last 4 years, that will not change anytime soon.

Options Market Makers are cheating. They are ALLOWED to sell naked short shares in unlimited quanities w/o consequences (via SEC Reg SHO, Rule 201, a.k.a. the "Madoff Exemption").

This violates the law of supply and demand. When they sell a share short, there should be one less share available to short in the future. Instead, they have an endless pool of imaginary, counterfeit shares they can sell to the unwary, and the unaware (usually their own retail customers).

I really really hope that those are shorts who are selling, not retail investors. I bought few shares today and it would make me feel really good if on the other side of transactions is was a Short.

To be fair Shorts will have opportunity to buy back after Q4 earnings ... and I may sell some shares back to them in February if they ask nicely

 

[Krugerrand]

I think one has to START with Billions to print additional billions. Although, if I only particpated in the derivatives market, I could probably make a TON more %%% on each trade and accumulate much more wealth overall, but that’s not how I pick directional trends, then stocks, then how to best allocate capital (underlying equity, index derivatives, futures, or equity derivatives) to participate in those trend moves while at the SAME time not sit in front of a computer daily/all day, etc. I DO have a day job about 4-6 months a year that occupies me significantly when doing it, so I have to invest and setup all the alerts and monitors I need to be able to only apply 1-2 hours a day managing trades, whil I’m doing 10+ hours a day of more interesting albeit less financially rewarding work.

Time allocation to task is always being reworked. Lately as balances have ballooned, I’m doing LESS outside work though so I’m not happy with that.

From a time allocation though for 2022 on my list is to try and get back into one of the three IBM thinkpads I used back in 2012, where I mined or purchased 20 bitcoin. But, my while complex but formulaic password methodology should get me back in once I decide to apply the time and method to it. And I do have the cold storage password written down externally, so that’s not the problem. ;-)

That sounds way easier and infinitely more fascinating than what I did by purchasing a fist full of shares in 2012 and then playing dead while they split and grew to between a 150 - 200 bagger depending on the day of the week.

Yeah, your way better.

Carry on.

 

[dw4ngg]

Over the past 10 weeks, the MA(10) has been either resistance or support about 12 times, and the MA(50) about 4 times: (so yes, we could expect the 10-day to play an outsized roll going forward into Earnings)

View attachment 752649

Honestly, I just follow all this T/A crepe because that's how hedgies and shortzes think (and it's ALL they've got, TBH).

Wake me in 5 years time. I expect the SP to be around $8K. Meanwhile, what I really care about is how Tesla is doing (not worried at all about how TSLA is doing).

Cheers!

Agreed... I only care b/c I have some options

 

[Discoducky]

Rage BTO!

View attachment 752630

STC as now rage has subsided. $6k profit helped!

 

[capster]

All those "Germany is killing Giga Berlin" posts really piss me off. You are all oversimplyfying to a point where you make it sound as if there is only one central government involved that controls everything and acts completely arbitralily. Seems some can only think of Germany in terms of Hitler against the rest of the world/bad vs. good. It is more complex that that. /rant off

1) This is the State of Brandenburg government giving the permit, central government has little to do with it
2) At this point it is the State of Brandenburg making sure that there are no loopholes in the permit that would make it likely that "environmental" NGOs succeed in stopping production in court
3) The state of Brandenburg does have a strong interest in seeing Giga Berlin starting, for example jobs and taxes. Why would they have lobbied for getting Giga Berlin and then try to stop it?

Are there too many parties involved and antiquated rules that make the process more complex than it should be? Does it smell fishy that non-local environmental are able to sue that have been supported by other automakers? You bet. But this is not about a corrupt government.

tl;dr: Yes, but…

Through much study and experience I concluded years ago that the (still) dominant global energy and transport megalith is so huge that it distorts economics and politics. It has done so for over a century and the resulting distortions are embedded all over the world.

The US could be considered the poster child for this phenomenon. And, I don’t think Germany is immune even though I also think Germany has strong and good governance (as the US does).

Having worked with many Germans at a German automaker for a dozen years (I worked at a facility in the US, but I traveled to Germany quite a few times), I found my German colleagues likable and I developed a lot of respect for them and for Germany.

Nevertheless and again, I don’t think for a moment that Germany is immune to this phenomenon when others are not. Indeed, my view was reinforced when I managed to nose my way into the Fuel Cell vs BEV debate within the company (though my technical expertise lay elsewhere). I found this ‘debate‘ to be intensely political with precious little ’fair play.’ I originally believed that if any auto company was capable of great innovation the company I worked at was. I ultimately concluded that no legacy automaker was capable of meaningful innovation absent intense external or market pressure.

No doubt there is an above board debate happening in Germany wrt to Giga Berlin, but there is most assuredly a rough struggle behind the scenes as well. This is why I expect some further delay, though if it goes on much longer I expect the excuse for the delay will have to change from an overabundance of punctiliousness.

 

[CyberDutchie]

It boggles the mind that LCID is up 3.5% while TSLA is down

Retail investors are looking for the next Tesla, they think they have missed the boat and TSLA is too expensive. This is why I believe Tesla should announce a split sooner then later.

 

[ZsoZso]

If you feel like going into Panic mode due the TSLA dropping, I'd like to suggest to open up your perspectives. Look at the big picture, consider the whole journey from start to destination, not just the current state.

For example, Mr. Einhorn and me are in a very similar current state: we are both millionaires thanks to TSLA.
However, our journeys are very different. I have started out with a few hundred thousands invested into TSLA from 2014, mostly HODLing with some swing trading of small portions of the money. On the other hand, Mr. Einhorn started out with $ billions and shorted TSLA.
Despite the similarity of our current state, we are not the same, we have a very different journey!

Those who are shorting TSLA today to push the SP down will end up with similar journey to Mr. Einhorn.
Those who buy the dip today will go in the other direction...

 

[CyberDutchie]

If you feel like going into Panic mode due the TSLA dropping, I'd like to suggest to open up your perspectives. Look at the big picture, consider the whole journey from start to destination, not just the current state.

For example, Mr. Einhorn and me are in a very similar current state: we are both millionaires thanks to TSLA.
However, our journeys are very different. I have started out with a few hundred thousands invested into TSLA from 2014, mostly HODLing with some swing trading of small portions of the money. On the other hand, Mr. Einhorn started out with $ billions and shorted TSLA.
Despite the similarity of our current state, we are not the same, we have a very different journey!

Those who are shorting TSLA today to push the SP down will end up with similar journey to Mr. Einhorn.
Those who buy the dip today will go in the other direction...

Tesla, please split soon and use dividend to award extra shares to holders of real stock to weed out all these naked shorters.

 

[SO16]

An EV skeptic emailed me this link today:

Prairie Tesla owners battle loss of heat amid extreme cold weather after software update

A number of Tesla owners across the prairies complain they are experiencing heating issues in their vehicles at a time when temperatures have plummeted.

calgary.ctvnews.ca

A software issue that Tesla is working on (or maybe already fixed). Yes it’s unfortunate but will be fixed and there are workarounds.

I’ve had trouble with gas cars in extreme cold too.