Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Marc_K_inNJ]

MM’s working real hard to keep TSLA red!
Don’t they get it already that this is a GREEN company…!?

 

[Tslynk67]

What happened?

Everything as expected...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Everything as expected...

TSLA relative to other names shows the effect of Elon's share sale overhang, imho. Big money is content to play chicken a little longer.

 

[Boomer19]

Dang, we've got a competition between Germany and Texas.

Which one will produce more Model Y by end of 2022?

austin

 

[Artful Dodger]

Got to wonder if there’s such a flood of retail out there that every decision makes the market break to the upside unless there’s something really really awful. Down on uncertainty, up on certainty no matter what it is. lol

Yes, there are clearly two types of speculators playing the Market:

1. those who are betting that things are worse than they seem, and
2. those who are betting that things are as bad as they seem.

Seems legit.

Cheers!

 

[tivoboy]

TSLA relative to other names shows the effect of Elon's share sale overhang, imho. Big money is content to play chicken a little longer.

This.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We'll see what happens for the rest of the afternoon, but the stock's action after the initial spike tells me this is going right back below the lower BB and will continue the trend of riding it downwards. Clear intent to cap any rise.

Pretty much confirms I'm going to stay patient and wait for 900-910 to do more stock for LEAPS

It's the same things as yesterday, except the purchases at the bottom of the trough were much more robust. To me this means FOMO is likely to overwhelm any downward pressure from hedgies since they're essentially bleeding money in the effort.

On days when Elon is selling I wouldn't be surprised to see the efforts resume to hit this $910 zone, but the last two days tells me that'll be increasingly difficult. Yesterday got pushed down to $93x and someone bought a half million shares. Today it was pushed down to $929 and someone bought a million shares.

Demand for shares seems to me to be winning the battle.*
(* when Elon's not selling)

 

[elasalle]

accolades galore ... seems they are out competing each other

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471102754680496132

 

[Accident]

Holy *sugar*. There are a ton of things in that bill that needed to pass. We HAVE to rebuild our roads and bridges...man this ****ing country.

There are two different bills. Progressive democrats voted against the BIB because they knew that by separating the bills the chances to pass BBB were very low.

Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill: Already passed and signed.

• Funding for roads and bridges
• Clean Water
• EV Chargers
• Electric Buses
• Improvement to Internet and electricity infrastructure
• Money for airports and rail

Build Back Better:

• EV tax credit
• Renewable energy investments
• Solar energy tax credit
• Healthcare and Medicare expansions
• Childcare funding
• Pre-K expansion
• Child tax credit

 

[mrmage]

Picked up some 700/800c Jan2023 spreads for fun around $52.

It's crazy to get 90% ROI if TSLA SP is 15% lower than today in 2023.

 

[Flehmenlips]

Pretty much confirms I'm going to stay patient and wait for 900-910 to do more stock for LEAPS

Can you clarify what you mean by "do more stocks for LEAPS"? Does that mean sell stocks and buy LEAPs? If so, why that vs. hold stocks and buy LEAPS?

 

[winfield100]

Today is looking like the mirror image of yesterday as of 10:53. If Elon's shares were being sold today, it would likely have been evident by now. I think we see a combination of hedgie covering and FOMO slowly take us to a $968 close.

I'm guessing tomorrow is an Elon selling day and we drop back down below $940. If we can hold this range a little longer(thru next week) LEAP pricing might come down a bit and it'll make sense to rage convert shares to LEAPs & YOLOs.

There have been some comments about Elon selling an unknown number of shares more from the tranches where he will be acquiring more shares.

If you very roughly, very quick and dirty contemplate 1 potential scenario using the already known acquisitions and dispersals and future possible number of shares he holds _only_ from the 2012 forms
(and not from the potential 2018 where he can acquire 101 million more shares where these numbers are times at least 4)

Elon has realized about $12.74 Billion from sales so far
Elon has a tax bill (53%) $12.6 Billion so far (assuming $1,000/share at time of acquisition for last ~4 acquisitions)
Elon needs $142 Million to pay for acquired shares

Basically, he needs to sell a miniscule amount of shares to do the tax and acquisition costs and should end up with approximately 180 million shares, gaining around 9.5 million from when the acquisitions started

(edit, there is a bit of a discrepancy as i have a bit of uncertainty, Elon has as of knowledge to date, only sold approximately 12 million shares, and not the approximately 17 million shares so that is one reason this is "quick and dirty so the numbers will be skewed, but not a whole lot at these levels, when he acquires the 101 million it will be a tsunami for many)

5/21/2019 acquired

price

shares

175,000

23,737,050​

vested

$31.17​

pre split

pre split

5,274,901​

total shares

left to be

2,637,455​

not vested

$6.24​

post split

post split

26,374,505​

22,862,050

acquired

26,374,505​

total

shares

So Far

5/21/2019

875,000

A

$6.24

year 2019

year 2019

acquired

3.7%​

1

11/8/2021

2,154,572

A

$6.24

$13,444,529.28​

acquired

9.1%​

12.8%​

$2,539,780,532.54​

2

11/15/2021

2,107,672

A

$6.24

$13,151,873.28​

acquired

8.9%​

21.6%​

$2,100,062,916.57​

3

11/16/2021

2,113,761

A

$6.24

$13,189,868.64​

acquired

8.9%​

30.5%​

$2,202,607,643.86​

4

11/23/2021

2,152,681

A

$6.24

$13,432,729.44​

acquired

9.1%​

39.6%​

$2,418,532,969.72​

5

12/2/2021

2,133,441

A

$6.24

$13,312,671.84​

acquired

9.0%​

48.6%​

$2,315,153,710.22​

6

12/9/2021

2,165,241

A

$6.24

$13,511,103.84​

acquired

9.1%​

57.7%​

$2,232,742,545.25​

7

12/13/2021

2,134,440

A

$6.24

$13,318,905.60​

acquired

9.0%​

66.7%​

$2,071,364,860.85​

8

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

$13,337,383.13​

TBD

9.0%​

75.7%​

$2,137,401,142.86​

not yet

9

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

$13,337,383.13​

TBD

9.0%​

84.7%​

$2,137,401,142.86​

not yet

10

TBD

2,137,401

$6.24

$13,337,383.13​

TBD

9.0%​

93.7%​

$2,137,401,142.86​

not yet

11

TBD

1,488,039

$6.24

$9,285,363.36​

TBD

6.3%​

100.0%​

$1,488,039,000.00​

not yet

100.0%​

$23,780,487,607.58​

appx tax value

23,737,050

total

acquired

$142,659,194.67

Cost

$12,603,658,432.02​

appx 53% tax

0

Avg $

shares owned

1​

11/8/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,101,093,923.72​

dispersed

$1,178.79​

11/8/2021

170,492,985

11/9/2021

3,088,047​

D

$3,353,496,896.10​

dispersed

$1,085.96​

11/10/2021

500,000​

D

$527,271,411.03​

dispersed

$1,054.54​

11/11/2021

639,737​

D

$687,297,093.55​

dispersed

$1,074.34​

total shares owned

11/12/2021

1,200,000​

D

$1,235,607,328.52​

dispersed

$1,029.67​

11/12/2021

166,285,682

2​

11/15/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$930,718,759.75​

dispersed

$996.39​

11/15/2021

166,285,682

3​

11/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$973,353,173.16​

dispersed

$1,042.03​

11/16/2021

166,285,682

4​

11/23/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,049,449,444.77​

dispersed

$1,123.50​

11/23/2021

168,638,933

5​

12/2/2021​

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,013,650,831.84​

dispersed

$1,085.17​

12/2/2021

169,857,523

6​

12/9/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$963,211,354.69​

dispersed

$1,031.18​

12/9/2021

171,056,873

7​

12/13/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$906,487,544.38​

dispersed

$970.45​

12/13/2021

172,288,023

8​

TBD

934,091​

TBD

$1,000.00​

TBD

174,425,424

9​

TBD

934,091​

TBD

$1,000.00​

TBD

176,562,825

10​

TBD

934,091​

TBD

$1,000.00​

TBD

178,700,226

11​

TBD

934,091​

funds from sales

TBD

$1,000.00​

TBD

180,188,265

so far

total so far

15,702,785​

D

shares

Sold

$12,741,637,761.52​

​

23,737,050​

vested

Funds needed to

2,637,455​

not vested

pay tax and acquire shares

26,374,505​

total

$12,884,296,956.20​

 

[tivoboy]

Got to wonder if there’s such a flood of retail out there that every decision makes the market break to the upside unless there’s something really really awful. Down on uncertainty, up on certainty no matter what it is. lol

Algorithms, and this is where the majority of the market participation lies are A) not the omniscient and perfectly configured financial robots for event horizons that people think they are and B) for every algorithm programmed for one eventuality and proper, millisecond reaction to it there are at least nearly an equal amount that are ready and primed to react in the OPPOSITE direction creating a significant moment in time tension, that gets relI’ved rather quickly.. and then RE-PROGRAMMED, etc. Overlay the NOW massive derivatives market on top of that - and we’re at or more than nearly DOUBLE the amount of derivatives action from pre Feb 2020, that will produce significant skews (not option related skew mind you, just distortional skew) that can last and linger well into the coming days.

Especially with Dec 2021, and whole year expirations on Friday.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Couch got lighter again this AM. Picked up some more this AM at $930.

Interesting observation: While the SP arrived at my order price for a bit, the LEAP pricing is much more sticky.

Can't wait to see the SP climb again, but if I have to sop up my tears in the meantime, newly added LEAPS and discounted shares are better than Kleenex.

 

[tivoboy]

accolades galore ... seems they are out competing each other

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471102754680496132

Peter and Max would be so proud.

 

[Curt Renz]

Future Fund - December 13:

 

[jhm]

Berlin vs Austin: 2022 production match

Both Giga Berlin and Giga Texas are ramping up at the same time. Tesla says they'll both ramp as quickly as Shanghai did in its first year. But how about to take this as friendly competition: The Word Cup of Tesla Production! Tell us which team you like and why.

teslamotorsclub.com

The World Cup of Tesla Production

 

[PeterJA]

We'll see what happens for the rest of the afternoon, but the stock's action after the initial spike tells me this is going right back below the lower BB and will continue the trend of riding it downwards. Clear intent to cap any rise.

Pretty much confirms I'm going to stay patient and wait for 900-910 to do more stock for LEAPS

There's a put wall at 950 (as of this morning). How does that affect your thinking?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Can you clarify what you mean by "do more stocks for LEAPS"? Does that mean sell stocks and buy LEAPs? If so, why that vs. hold stocks and buy LEAPS?

So yes I'm selling some stock and buying LEAPS with the proceeds. I've been doing this process all throughout 2021 while the stock consolidated.

In my particular situation, I've put pretty much every penny of extra money into TSLA for about 8-9 years while I was at Microsoft and enjoyed a high salary. In summer of 2019, I left Microsoft to join a tech company that's pre-IPO so I took a big hit salary wise in order to get as much equity options as I could. This meant though that I didn't have near the free funds to buy more TSLA shares, especially after the big rally of 2020.

So my only available option to increase my share count was to take advantage of the consolidation and sell stock and buy LEAPS. I started 2021 at 4500 shares, I'm now down to 2500 shares but I have 52 DITM LEAPS ranging from 500-700 strike prices in late 2023. I also have some OTM LEAPS that I bought in 2021 that I plan to just sell for the gains instead of converting to stock. For the 52 DITM LEAPS, I plan on converting those into shares and if everything lines up timing wise, I'll be using a margin loan against the equity/shares in the company I'm currently at since we'll IPO by mid 2022.

I will have effectively increased my share count from 4500 to about 7500. I then plan to sell some TSLA stock in like 2024-2025 when the stock is above $2,000/share to pay off the margin loan (should only cost me about 1,000-1,200 shares). So my final tally of shares will end up being around 6,300-6,500

 

[Discoducky]

There's a put wall at 950 (as of this morning). How does that affect your thinking?

My Max-pain foo isn't that strong, but I'm hopeful that the $950 wall holds.