Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[winfield100]

A slight revision, I missed the earlier Acquisition of 875,000 shares on 5/19/2019 and an addendum of number of total shares owned column
It now more closely follows Mr Blacks data

5/21/2019 acquired

price

shares

875,000

$31.17​

pre split

pre split

5,274,901​

total shares

left to be

$6.234​

post split

post split

26,374,505​

22,862,050

acquired

12,827,368

So Far

shares

11/8/2021

2,154,572

A

$6.24

$13,444,529.28​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,539,780,532.54​

11/15/2021

2,107,672

A

$6.24

$13,151,873.28​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,100,062,916.57​

11/16/2021

2,113,761

A

$6.24

$13,189,868.64​

acquired

9.2%​

$2,202,607,643.86​

11/23/2021

2,152,681

A

$6.24

$13,432,729.44​

acquired

9.4%​

$2,418,532,969.72​

12/2/2021

2,133,441

A

$6.24

$13,312,671.84​

acquired

9.3%​

$2,315,153,710.22​

12/9/2021

2,165,241

A

$6.24

$13,511,103.84​

acquired

9.5%​

$2,232,742,545.25​

56.1%​

$11,576,137,772.91​

appx tax value

12,827,368

total

acquired

$80,042,776.32

Cost

$6,135,353,019.64​

appx 53% tax owed

Avg $

shares owned

11/8/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,101,093,923.72​

dispersed

$1,178.79​

11/8/2021

170,492,985

11/9/2021

3,088,047​

D

$3,353,496,896.10​

dispersed

$1,085.96​

11/10/2021

500,000​

D

$527,271,411.03​

dispersed

$1,054.54​

11/11/2021

639,737​

D

$687,297,093.55​

dispersed

$1,074.34​

11/12/2021

1,200,000​

D

$1,235,607,328.52​

dispersed

$1,029.67​

11/12/2021

166,285,682

11/15/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$930,718,759.75​

dispersed

$996.39​

11/15/2021

166,285,682

11/16/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$973,353,173.16​

dispersed

$1,042.03​

11/16/2021

166,285,682

11/23/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,049,449,444.77​

dispersed

$1,123.50​

11/23/2021

168,638,933

12/2/2021​

934,091​

D

10b-5

$1,013,650,831.84​

dispersed

$1,085.17​

12/2/2021

169,857,523

gain of so far

12/9/2021

934,091​

D

10b-5

$963,211,354.69​

dispersed

$1,031.18​

12/9/2021

171,056,873

563,888​

total so far

11,032,330​

D

shares

Sold

$11,835,150,217.14​

$1,072.77​

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469212930252029953

 

[jeewee3000]

Actually option market seems to be pricing in $950 as the price in 1 year:

View attachment 742500

... and probability of SP > 1200 is only ~25%, which I think would mean that Jan 2023 1200 CALL is underpriced by factor of 2x and 1200 PUT overpriced by 2x ( or 3x??).

I've tried to compare it to few other stocks big/small stable and volatile: AAPL, RKLB, BYND and none of them has this strong skew. The skew is minor TSLA opts exercise dates before Summer 2022.

This seems so much off that I am going to review it one more time tomorrow, but if it hold true I may move more of my option positions to Jan 2023, because arbitrage opportunity is just too large to ignore.

The option market changes drastically over extended periods of time. Therefore the "pricing" the option market attributes to TSLA stock within a 1 year time frame is completely meaningless. In the options thread we have learnt this from experience, but if you want to experience this for yourself I invite you to look at that same pricing chart (for Jan20 2023 expiration date) every week/month, screencap it or make a note, and then look at the sequence on January 1st 2023. You won't recognize the chart you posted at all.

TL;DR: nothing to read into this at this point in time. Or ever, since the MaxPain target on its own is a useless metric. (In combination with many other factors it can tell a story, though. I won't go into that here)

 

[CorneliusXX]

Just received an invite from Tesla to view the first Model Y on display in the UK. Viewing is from December 11th to 31st at Tesla White City. Not sure if this is restricted to people that have ordered or not.


Edit: call out to @CorneliusXX

I haven't got an invite yet. Might head over anyway and take a look.

 

[deffu]

Lol Elon. Sell a bunch, then say you wanna quit your job…… all the day before the CPI
I think the kids would say ……Bro?!?..

I think he is looking for a gf (I do t mean giga factory)

 

[printf42]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469227050766675973

This can’t be good…
/s

 

[CorneliusXX]

The basic answer is two-fold: not every ICE maker will go bankrupt, only the most bloated and inefficient. Any projection of 20% market share by 2030 would be in a world with subsidies to legacy makers. Ark Invest is projecting 25% market share by 2026! That projection must be understood to be in a scenario with likely subsidies. Tesla could have well over 50% by 2030 and the more efficient makers who don't go bankrupt can pick up the slack. It might be Rivian too, we don't know yet. One thing is for certain: Cars will be a much better value and will be built with a much lower carbon footprint in a future world arrived at without subsidies! Subsidies as large as those being proposed pervert capitalism and its inherent efficiencies.

Ark expects 5-10m global sales by 2025 for Tesla - which is at best a 20% market share even if global auto sales drop to 50m a year from the historical annual rates of ~80m. The average of their forecast is only 15% based on the lower 50m/yr rate and less than 10% if sales return to the average of 80m. This is the furthest their Tesla estimate goes out based on their latest paper.

Other manufacturers will eventually pick up the slack - but the goal is to accelerate the EV supply growth.

The demand for new ICE cars will also drop off naturally (that's why the least efficient makers will go bankrupt). Newer cars last longer than old cars. They are better protected from corrosion and have more modern engines and transmissions that are built to higher tolerances. Also, looking through the decade we should see fewer cars totalled in accident, DUI is declining, tires are better than ever, the cars are more maneuverable and safer with more electronic interventions dropping the accident rate, the ratio of EV's is rapidly growing with less of them being taken out of the fleet due to blown transmissions, engines, etc. The US has been a laggard in BEV adoption and that will continue with the proposed subsidies but it would eventually reverse without subsidies so the US would get a slightly higher percentage of global EV production.

I agree ICE demand will naturally decline - but that can be accelerated with increased EV supply - which EV subsidies will help with. Demand for vehicles (EV + ICE) is only so elastic and there is a minimum number of vehicles that need to be sold so that people can still get around. The goal is to increase aggregate global supply of EVs - which is currently limited by manufacturing, supply chain and resource limitations. Increased EV demand via additional subsidies increases investment to solve these problems.

If looking solely at the US market - Investment decisions are being made now by automakers on where to build their EV plants and increased subsidies will make them prioritise EV plants in the US rather than Europe or China. This is an incremental game - e.g. without subsidies you get Ford/GM etc. building their subscale factories in the US - with subsidies they are likely to accelerate their plans.

The answer to your question is that free-markets have a way of working through disruptions. Anyone claiming we couldn't get to work if legacy makers go bankrupt doesn't know what they are talking about. It's a red herring.

No-one is claiming this. The claim is that anyone needing a new vehicle will buy an ICE instead of an EV if enough EVs aren't available (there is some room to manoeuvre as people can hold on to vehicles somewhat longer on average, but not forever). If subsidies increase the total availability of EVs then fewer ICE vehicles will be sold. Which is good.

Additionally, the current market isn't purely free - it is already riddled with gas subsidies, taxes, manipulative reporting and advertising, unpriced externalities by not taxing carbon, etc, etc. While all that exists EV subsidies work to level the playing field.

 

[Stormy24]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469227050766675973

This can’t be good…
/s

Star Trekkin​

 

[22522]

The strength of Tesla's castings will be whatever Tesla engineers want it to be depending upon whether they want more strength or lighter weight. Pound for pound it's stronger, stiffer and more corrosion resistant than steel. So, they will probably design it to be stronger, lighter and stiffer. All good, especially if it can be made cheaper due to less floor space, fewer robots and less time and labor.

Thanks for helping explore the viability of this rumor. I think there are real differences in economic benefit if a separate skin is required. Aluminum strength can vary by an order of magnitude based on alloy and post processing. An average guess for what Tesla is using would be 40,000 psi according to this table. Yield strength of die cast aluminum is about 3/4 tensile strength, so 30,000 psi.

This picture shows the evolution of material mix used on automobiles over time, suggesting with use of other references that the exterior panels are SAE 1025 with a yield strength to 50,000 psi.

Since aluminum is 1/3 as stiff as steel, independent of alloy, Tesla might make the inner surface of the door skin sort of corrugated to get flow and thickness (stiffness) for door dings and crash strength. Introduce the metal at the thick hinge sections and run to the latch with thick beam. Maybe feather like corrugations running off the beam to fill and form the sheet - essentially a copy of a bird feather...

Pardon the detail. I just needed to see how close a die cast aluminum yield strength was to the steel sheet currently used, with the goal of meeting customer expectations for strength and durability. Looks like they can cast the whole thing (less inner liner). I don't know about window glass clearance or sound suppression. Seems like the casting process would let you damp out resonance by designing mass and stiffness wherever you want.

I would try to cast the whole door structure, including skin.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313900101_Application_of_Steel_in_Automotive_Industry

SAE-AISI 1025 (G10250) Carbon Steel :: MakeItFrom.com

www.makeitfrom.com

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Don't anyone wake up the US posters, they'll freak out at the premarket. Macros look ok other than looming CPI. Who wants to bet we close at max pain?

 

[15Peter20]

Can we have a Santa rally now please?

 

[15Peter20]

Don't anyone wake up the US posters, they'll freak out at the premarket. Macros look ok other than looming CPI. Who wants to bet we close at max pain?

$950?

 

[Dangerous Fish]

My good friend and fellow investor took delivery of a SR 3 yesterday afternoon. It’s beautiful…and in the Frunk was a handwritten (drawn) note that said “new batch”.

I’m guessing this was in reference to a LFP pack? There is no indication otherwise of being LFP.

One theory is that they are removing the 'Daily' and 'Trip' prompts from LFP Model 3s.

 

[EVMeister]

Can we have a Santa rally now please?

HoHoNo.

 

[15Peter20]

HoHoNo.

HoHoHo NotFunny

 

[Tslynk67]

I just received an email from Tesla regarding my MX order, here's the translation, I highlighted the two key points:

We will contact you regarding the timing of your Model X order.
We are in the process of scaling up production, which has delayed the launch for countries outside of North America. We will notify you in your Tesla Account of delivery dates once production of your Model X begins. It is estimated that deliveries outside of North America will start in the second half of 2022.
We will no longer be accepting new orders for Model S and Model X in countries outside of North America. Your Model X will retain the purchase price as of the date you ordered if you do not make any changes to your Vehicle Configuration.
Request a callback with a Tesla Advisor if you want to use your Order Fee for a different model or if you want to cancel your order.
We apologize for the inconvenience.
With kind regards,
The Tesla Team

 

[NicoV]

Tesla stopped taking (firm) orders for Model S and X in Europe. The order page now says that pricing and options will become determined as the delivery date gets closer.

My interpretation of this is that the order book so so full that any order destined for the EU market will be a new (still to be released) model.

Edit: @Lycanthrope was slightly faster than me. Proof that this thread is a real-time digest of all news Tesla related.

 

[Maarten]

Thanks for helping explore the viability of this rumor. I think there are real differences in economic benefit if a separate skin is required. Aluminum strength can vary by an order of magnitude based on alloy and post processing. An average guess for what Tesla is using would be 40,000 psi according to this table. Yield strength of die cast aluminum is about 3/4 tensile strength, so 30,000 psi.

View attachment 742640

This picture shows the evolution of material mix used on automobiles over time, suggesting with use of other references that the exterior panels are SAE 1025 with a yield strength to 50,000 psi.

View attachment 742646

Since aluminum is 1/3 as stiff as steel, independent of alloy, Tesla might make the inner surface of the door skin sort of corrugated to get flow and thickness (stiffness) for door dings and crash strength. Introduce the metal at the thick hinge sections and run to the latch with thick beam. Maybe feather like corrugations running off the beam to fill and form the sheet - essentially a copy of a bird feather...

Pardon the detail. I just needed to see how close a die cast aluminum yield strength was to the steel sheet currently used, with the goal of meeting customer expectations for strength and durability. Looks like they can cast the whole thing (less inner liner). I don't know about window glass clearance or sound suppression. Seems like the casting process would let you damp out resonance by designing mass and stiffness wherever you want.

I would try to cast the whole door structure, including skin.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313900101_Application_of_Steel_in_Automotive_Industry

SAE-AISI 1025 (G10250) Carbon Steel :: MakeItFrom.com

www.makeitfrom.com

I am a civil engineer, Msc, major in construction theory.
In my opinion you should't post things like the above in detail in the investor's thread, most likely you are scaring people with this.
Better to stay away from the details, but try to give a quick insight why you think this is of importance to us as TSLA investors.
That's a challenge, I know. But pretty smart people in general here, give it a try!

 

[PokerFJÆS]

I put max pain based on this week's chart at ~1045. Hopefully the MMs will step in to prevent a fall below that.

Stock Option Max Pain

www.maximum-pain.com

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla stopped taking (firm) orders for Model S and X in Europe. The order page now says that pricing and options will become determined as the delivery date gets closer.

My interpretation of this is that the order book so so full that any order destined for the EU market will be a new (still to be released) model.

Edit: @Lycanthrope was slightly faster than me. Proof that this thread is a real-time digest of all news Tesla related.

It’s also possible (and even likely) that they don’t want to take firm orders with a fixed price when delivery is one year out and a lot can happen to exchange rates and production costs during that time. It’s probably just risk reduction.