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I will have to go back and re-listen, but I thought they were talking "fully ramp" 4680s, not initial production.


They said volume production 12-18 months.

I dunno that you can build a million Ys in Austin and Berlin in 2022, plus however many CTs and Plaid+ cars will need 4680s, without volume battery production
 
im sure we will have some 4680s soon. When elon says volume production, i think he is talking VOLUME production. He probably thinks a million vehicles isnt a lot :D
I also believe that Elon has been advised over and over again to not be overly optimistic with release dates and actually sand bag thing. I think the FSD beta again taught him a lesson we though he had learned previously. I feel especially when it comes to hardware related production. Cars, factories, batteries, etc. etc. Not to mention software estimating is always a crap shoot and FSD beta is pure software at this point.