Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MTL_HABS1909]

Elon is sending us another message, and I am again reading too much into it.

I’m all ears....

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The first half was a roller coaster, with frequent climbs into the lead before falling behind, but they managed to hold on for a lead at the half. The third quarter was looking ugly and drew concerns from fans that it was going to be a repeat of yesterday's performance. But they rallied in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good and held on for a 10 point win, snapping their 2 game losing streak. With a recent credit upgrade, perhaps there is some momentum for a strong finish to the week.

Today
Score: 640.39
Margin of W/L: 10.12
Attendance: 39,166,973

Season
Record: 28-29
Total margin in wins: 680.21
Total margin in losses: -745.49
YTD gain/loss: -65.28 -9.25%
Avg margin of victory: 24.29
Avg margin of defeat: -25.71
Best Win: 110.58 2021-03-09
Worst Loss: -68.83 2021-01-11
Last 10: 5-5
Streak: W1
Avg Attendance: 38,445,339
Avg Attendance of Last 10: 35,480,468

 

[Mike Smith]

Dave Lee and Emmett Peppers interview ARK's Director of Research Brett Winton.

 

[Krugerrand]

I hope you were joking, because this is not even close to the way either of those work.
Even a cursory glance at the disingenuously simple explanation on FICO's website will show that.
Debit and equity ratings have entirely different structures and each rating agency differs in approach.
FWIW, there are numerous FICO scores and most consumer credit in the US is not based on a FICO, most are proprietary, although some do use FICO to develop their own proprietary scores. There are distinctly different scores for different purposes also. Rating agencies also have numerous approaches including some stochastic ones to establish ratings for different types of security and, for internal use, some industry level factors coupled with regional and national factors. Each agency differs in these approaches.

FWIW, any business with a growth rate in excess of 30% will have a tough time obtaining high ratings. All risk valuations penalize very high growth rates. Long history confirms that as a prudent factor.

Note: As a confirmed HODL in TSLA I still agree with these principles, if they are followed. In specific TSLA defense, the TSLA acid test ratio (also called quick ratio) was .42 on 31 March 2019 and rose to 1.59 on 31 Dec 2020. That spectacular rise in liquidity, continuing now, is a tribute to operating efficiency and cattail access during incredible growth. Possibly, just possibly, all that liquidity might make Tesla debt achieve higher grade, despite the aggressive growth rate.

I was being flippant, facetious, sarcastic — mostly.

Let’s just say the various agencies get it wrong enough times to question the wisdom and integrity of it all. And yes, we’re talking specifically about Moody’s in this context. Feel free to argue why Ford deserves their rating and Tesla theirs. I’ll require you to come up with more than high growth companies unilaterally deserve lower ratings. Tesla isn’t a typical high growth company and should be treated justly and on its own merits.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yecccccchhhh!

Meh. After one has run out of rum and rye, it doesn’t really matter much anymore what you mix together.

 

[asburgers]

I don't usually drink pop but I purchased a bottle of Pepsi this afternoon.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Ba3 from B2 at Moody's, Outlook Positive​

View attachment 647948
2 steps jump skipping B1

Yet another not-an-upgrade-really. Isn’t that cute.

 

[Paracelsus]

I have been watching with amazement how MM's appear to once again be successfully steering the share price of TSLA towards the long term support line and a point of major movement either up or down just prior to the end of the quarter. Those of us following TSLA TA for years have seen this playbook many times in the past.........where the share price 'coincidentally' ends up on a longer term support/resistance line just before the announcement of deliveries and/or just before a quarterly earnings call, and thus that 'news' has a magnified effect on TSLA share price movement after hours and the following week.

Perhaps more interesting is that this time, as a result of a rather steady climb in stock price over the last year, it appears that MM's will enjoy the added volatility of landing the share price on a 1-year trend line instead of just a 1-month or 3-month trendline. That would be a target price for the MM's of roughly 600 when we start getting some news regarding Q1 results.

What we have also observed from the past is that when a 6-month (or longer) trendline is broken we should expect at least a 20% move in share price - and this will happen very quickly. That should put us in the mid-700's or back near 500 in a flash.....and then a continued drift in that direction until Big Money is satisfied that they are ready to make money in the other direction.....just a word of caution to any newer TSLA investors playing the very short game with options. Speed bumps ahead!

It should not be overlooked that the 'recommended' Stop-Loss price at the moment is $516.90 - and that this Stop-Loss recommendation is higher than a 20% drop from a share price of $600

And it should be noted how many time the stock price is moved just beyond the recommended Stop-Loss price to clean out the accounts of share holders that still believe that the game is not rigged against them

I am watching this closely in both directions, but selfishly looking for an opportunity for TSLA to break below the 1-year trendline long enough and far enough to roll some more shares from the IRA to the Roth account before we reverse direction as the infrastructure bill rolls out. I would encourage anyone with an IRA to prep for such an opportunity (complete your Roth IRA Conversion form now and have it in-hand, ready to send to your brokerage at a moments notice), because it is often easy to get the short term blinders on when the share price is tumbling and miss out on the longer term opportunity to save bigtime on taxes down the road - especially if we get the chance to roll shares into our Roth accounts in the next few weeks and then have the share price much, much higher before we have to pay taxes for that rollover a year from now. This could be sweet!

 

[deshkart]

I


What we have also observed from the past is that when a 6-month (or longer) trendline is broken we should expect at least a 20% move in share price - and this will happen very quickly. That should put us in the mid-700's or back near 500 in a flash.....and then a continued drift in that direction until Big Money is satisfied that they are ready to make money in the other direction.....just a word of caution to any newer TSLA investors playing the very short game with options. Speed bumps ahead!

It should not be overlooked that the 'recommended' Stop-Loss price at the moment is $516.90 - and that this Stop-Loss recommendation is higher than a 20% drop from a share price of $600

And it should be noted how many time the stock price is moved just beyond the recommended Stop-Loss price to clean out the accounts of share holders that still believe that the game is not rigged against them

Newbie here - I did not understand last 4 lines. Do you mean to say that dropping below is 516.90 is more likely than going above 700?

 

[MC3OZ]

What I think we may see at a Megacharger site is:-

• Big Battery and Autobidder
• Some solar (options from roof top up to solar farm)
• Allowance for 8-10 Megcharager stalls
• Allowance for 50-100 Supercharger/CCS/(Dual cable?) stalls.
• Truckers lounge
• Lounge, Café, Tesla Store, Gallery (with possible test drives)
• 50-100 regular parking spots.

So Tesla drivers may convince some non-Tesla EV drivers to take test drive.

For this solution, a lot of land is needed, and Tesla needs to buy the land, or have a long term lease, but it doesn't need to be Real Estate in prime locations.

Anywhere where trucks are parked needs a fair chunk of land.
The trucker doesn't need to stay with his truck while it is charging. they can go to the lounge, grab a coffee and a snack, or take a quick test drive.

 

[buttershrimp]

Tesla was sued because some Model S battery pack wasn't the capacity as denoted as the car model. They are not going to bring that back

Long story but that’s not what I’m referring to... it’s a bms decision they implemented late in 2019 that suddenly cut 5% off stated range.... the range is still there but it’s annoyingly hidden... bjorn did video on it, but most annoying part is explaining why percentage display is annoying alternative I don’t want to be forced into because they decided to changed perceived range by hiding extra storage below 0%

 

[Paracelsus]

Newbie here - I did not understand last 4 lines. Do you mean to say that dropping below is 516.90 is more likely than going above 700?

I was simply hoping to convey that it is important to be prepared for a potentially larger than normal move in either direction because of the 1 year trendline impact @deshkart - and that I am preparing for both. No prediction in direction was intended, but since I feel very strongly that that the share price will be much higher at this time next year, I am preparing for any large downward movement with all the paperwork necessary to roll as many shares as possible from my IRA to my Roth. Should MM's give you lemons, be prepared to make lemonade.............and no sugar is necessary because it could be a very sweet tax reduction.

 

[jerry33]

Newbie here - I did not understand last 4 lines. Do you mean to say that dropping below is 516.90 is more likely than going above 700?

Stop losses are basically a method to move funds from the retail investor to the MMs and Hedge funds. They are fine for a mature stock (one that pays dividends) which might go down to zero due to disruption, but they are just plain awful for a growth stock with high volatility because, well, growth stocks are volatile. Because the stop-loss price that you've set is known, they only have to push the price down to below the stop loss price and rake in your shares. Then they can raise the price, sell them at a profit, and you're the loser.

 

[Joe F]

I was simply hoping to convey that it is important to be prepared for a potentially larger than normal move in either direction because of the 1 year trendline impact @deshkart - and that I am preparing for both. No prediction in direction was intended, but since I feel very strongly that that the share price will be much higher at this time next year, I am preparing for any large downward movement with all the paperwork necessary to roll as many shares as possible from my IRA to my Roth. Should MM's give you lemons, be prepared to make lemonade.............and no sugar is necessary because it could be a very sweet tax reduction.

If you convert in Q1, wouldn’t you have to pay quarterly estimated this year? At least that‘s how I read it...

I only did one conversion in Q4 last year, a gift at $405! but paid before the deadline In Feb. Largest tax bill I’ve ever had!

 

[MXWing]

Looks like ARKX is launching next week.
Wonder if it will have TSLA as part of its holdings?

Go Mama Cathie!

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[deshkart]

I was simply hoping to convey that it is important to be prepared for a potentially larger than normal move in either direction because of the 1 year trendline impact @deshkart - and that I am preparing for both. No prediction in direction was intended, but since I feel very strongly that that the share price will be much higher at this time next year, I am preparing for any large downward movement with all the paperwork necessary to roll as many shares as possible from my IRA to my Roth. Should MM's give you lemons, be prepared to make lemonade.............and no sugar is necessary because it could be a very sweet tax reduction.

Thanks a lot for your detailed response.

 

[Knightshade]

I've seen more and more 'nose-in' SCs. I understand it's cheaper and easier to install 'back-in' SCs. But nose-in ones would certainly resolve this issue.

FWIW most of the SC locations I've seen, if you nosed in with a trailer attached to a CT, the trailer would be blocking traffic in the lot.

Granted this is just the east coast (mainly NC, SC, GA) but pretty much all the ones I've stopped at you're gonna need to disconnect, and park elsewhere, that trailer, before pulling the truck into a supercharger spot.... (and even then the spots are gonna be SUPER tight for the width of the CT).

 

[Ohmster]

Perhaps Tesla should sell a special Supercharger extension cable for those that tow (with appropriate cooling etc to maintain charging speeds etc). Thus making every single supercharger stall a possible charging point for every single Tesla, regardless of whether it is towing something or not.

This would be much easier than the alternatives. Either : 1) Reconfigure all existing stalls to accommodate towing (not likely to happen) or 2) Have a few "tow" spots - which result in reduced charging ability for those that tow.

So double the length of a vehicle in each stall? How would that work exactly, how would cars exit or enter? The picture is wrong in my head.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Seems like Tesla will offer an adapter + app solution for non-Teslas to allow them to charge on the Supercharger network. This will require a Tesla account.

Assuming this is true, Tesla will likely bring a lot of business to the Supercharger network from people who don't own Teslas. This will also bring those non-Tesla owners into the Tesla sales and marketing system. This will lead to more Tesla sales, for obvious reasons.

If the companies that aren't Tesla choose to block the adapter somehow, this will lead to bad opinions of the companies. Imagine being blocked from a shell owned gas station on a road trip.

If people still choose to go to Electrify America instead of the Supercharger network, at least some of that EA revenue still goes to Tesla, since they're supplying them with battery packs.

How do you compete against this?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I was simply hoping to convey that it is important to be prepared for a potentially larger than normal move in either direction because of the 1 year trendline impact @deshkart - and that I am preparing for both. No prediction in direction was intended, but since I feel very strongly that that the share price will be much higher at this time next year, I am preparing for any large downward movement with all the paperwork necessary to roll as many shares as possible from my IRA to my Roth. Should MM's give you lemons, be prepared to make lemonade.............and no sugar is necessary because it could be a very sweet tax reduction.

All these sentiments are precisely what I've been feeling, you apparently have a chart theory to go with it! I'm getting the sensation we've been watching the pushdown already.

With the backdrop of recent $695 inclusion, we're teetering at a share price offering instant 11% variance for benchmark funds(or any fund) looking to outpace the SP500. That's gotta have massive gravitational pull.

Driving down toward $600 already hit the vast majority of stop losses. I see an unwinding of all this nonsense back to the $740 level we were just at, then a long ratchet higher back toward $900.

My basic logic is similar to your chart logic, this SP feels like it needs to move 30%....and who on earth is gonna sell that much?