Don't necessarily think they should sell their entire stake. But I'm hoping their goal is to stay at 1.5 billion in reserves and everytime their position gains say 50%, they sell a portion to keep it to that 1.5 billion and lock in gains.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Don't necessarily think they should sell their entire stake. But I'm hoping their goal is to stay at 1.5 billion in reserves and everytime their position gains say 50%, they sell a portion to keep it to that 1.5 billion and lock in gains.
FOMO about to set in. Screw $760 Max Pain... it's about defending 780/790 walls. I've never seen this so concentrated around 800 (or any price).
"Ave Volume" day (from Low volume) - could mean the last chance 901 train is about to leave the station.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yes, my impression is that there is a single 4680 line being build by Panasonic at Giga Nevada in order to support early production of the Semi there. Doubtless, serious Semi volume will shift to Giga Texas over time, but right now Tesla needs the road miles for testing, and will benefit from reduced logistics costs between Sparks and Fremont.
Cheers!
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
Krugerrand
Meow
I believe that was mentioned briefly here but got no traction and I imagine because it’s likely going to amount to a hill of beans and a big luncheon bar tab and not much else.
It’s our committee getting together to discuss making a committee to study what happened so that a secondary committee can recommend a way they can better hide their nefarious actions, while seemingly on the surface taking the issue very seriously, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Basically SEC, wake us up when you actually start doing your jobs; pulling licenses and putting people in jail. Hint: start with your own staff first.
That always throws me off too. The graph axis are vague to me. Interest, Volume, and Cash. Maybe it's more like counting customers vs chicken sales vs dollars in the pot?
Somebody may have a better analogy, if so we're all ears.
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
It's weird. I think it should conceptually be the price that maximizes the total area of the crayons (calls to the right and total area of puts to the left).
I’ve wondered for some time why big players that want to accumulate didn’t just buy immediately when the SP is driven down during these short week bear raids.
The following occurred to me recently and may help make sense of ‘consolidation’ periods.
Let’s say there’s a bear raid motivated mainly by stop loss harvesting and the like rather than an attempt to kill the company involved.
It is perhaps in the accumulators interest to let the shorts shake loose shares from weak longs while also shouldering the risk of doing so. This puts those shares back in circulation thus lowering the SP.
This helps the accumulators when they buy. If they can snap up shares before the shorts cover so much the better.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Street has a name for this dance between the shorts and the accumulators. If so, I wonder what it is.
This reasoning would suggest a very green Monday, if this is the mechanism at work this week.
Not advice.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Shouldn’t it be the spot that makes yellow?
I guess that's where I'm a bit more conservative. I don't think Austin and Berlin will be up to 100% ramp until mid to late 2023. My hunch is for most of 2022 they will both be ramping up but NOT fully ramped, so I still feel like 1.4 million delivered in 2022 and 2 million in 2023 is more realistic. My gut tells me Tesla will stay around 50-60% growth YoY for a few years yet, especially while the 4680 lines ramp up.
I mean, I'd love to be wrong about this of course!
Ameliorate
Member
Nah, they just raised cash not long ago and now to buy back shares at a much higher price? Seems like poor judgement. Better idea would have been to sell fewer shares originally. I think after so many years it's hard to put into perspective that TSLA is and will be a profitable company even with their capital expenditures so they need to find a home for this new and growing income unless we want to hoard more than 20B in cash. Be it expanding faster (probably not very feasible), buy some stuff like BTC, stock buybacks or pay dividends.
I am sure stock buybacks will happen in time, especially if this BTC continues to grow and say they want to keep a 20B cash/equivalent buffer.
Nah, why would a growth company buy back stock? And who actually cares if $TSLA is perceived as a "better investment", it's all about The Mission, not profits or the share price.
Do we know who is manufacturing the 4680 production lines? Is it Grohmann? Drew made the following comment in the Q4 ER call:
Meanwhile, we've developed enough engineering confidence with our 4680 design and the production process and equipment to kick off manufacturing equipment and facility construction to support our 100 gigawatt hour 2022 goal
If it is Grohmann perhaps they will manufacture, build and test at the Grohmann works (like they did with the initial cell packing machines they built) and then deliver to Berlin when the 4680 cell production facility has been built.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
This is not really new. When I was at Ford we always understood we were at the bottom of the food chain but made up for it by giving steady business and long term contracts. The auto companies use older tech and expect bottom dollar prices on chips/electronics. The chip companies like auto as the volumes are pretty steady compared to the consumer electronics business. Also, they usually are building the chips on fully depreciated equipment for auto, hence the low prices. It's a good base of business for the chip companies.
We are in uncharted waters with the shift in demand that the pandemic created. I just hope the chip companies don't view Tesla as an auto company. My guess is Tesla is using the latest tech and paying tech company pricing/margins.
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That is certainly what I thought was said. On the other side we really do not know how mature the ferment line is. If all the technical problems have been resolved it seems quite likely that now lines might be rather faster than has been the Sparks one. After all Tesla seems to be slow to begin a major ramp up, but very rapidly expands once the technologies have matured.
My guess is that they've pretty well completed the technological maturation so Brandenburg and Shanghai will be producing 4680's and others partners might be also with lead time for third party production equipment and raw materials likely to be the constraining factors. As usual we have no definitive guidance.
My optimism may well reflect my anxiety to take delivery on my 4690 equipped car by early September. Both of my previous Tesla ended out being deliver the first week of September so this one should also. is that not perfectly logical?
Haven’t you heard? There’s a chip shortage.
Ordinarily I'd agree, but with the gains from BTC, they could sell, juice the bottom line, and then they'd have to put that cash somewhere. I suppose they could keep it in cash, but that is kind of a mixed signal with why they got into BTC in the first place. By placing it into a share buyback, it gives them a good excuse for why they sold the BTC. I'm justing brainstorming here.
You’re suggesting a company that just did two ATM capital raises, goes out and buys back its shares at valuations higher than they raised? That’s not a bullish signal. That’s a we have no idea what we’re doing with our capital signal. The BTC buy is nothing more than an inflationary hedge against a potential over printing of US money supply. To paraphrase Elon, it’s only slightly less stupid to hold BTC than it is to hold fiat, especially in an environment where your spending is quickly becoming more diversified in currencies.
I believe only applies to vehicles that are sold after the effective date of the Green Act.
Text - H.R.848 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): GREEN Act of 2021
(c) Effective Date.—
(1) LIMITATION.—The amendment made by subsection (a) shall apply to vehicles sold after the date of the enactment of this Act.
Can you report back in several weeks about the reliability? For example, how often to you lose connectivity.
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