Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Too bad, if true. I always thought internal loading docks would be a great way to load the cars/trucks onto the semis without exposing them to the elements. In fact, if Tesla could come up with an enclosed carrier trailer, the cars would never be exposed to the elements until they arrive at the destination. That might reduce a lot of the pre-delivery cleanup/repairs.

It was a nice concept but videos have made it clear for some time the internal roadway wasn't happening. The west structure will connect eastward within a week or two.

 

[wtlloyd]

Well Austin metro area is 2.5 million or so, Berlin metro area is a about 6.1 and much of the Shanghai sprawl means that someone on one side of the city might as well be from another metro region. The real question is how many people live within an hour commute of the factory. I can't answer that for any of them but I would guess that the Austin facility it is 100% . Austin is just not that big. I would think they are going to be relocating lots of people there. Eventually Tesla gets heavily burned in China. For my planning and forecast I'd discount China long term. They are letting Tesla run because it is good to push the local companies along, give it 4 years and then the interference will start and then they will get the google treatment and be cut off at the balls.

I worry about this. Did Tesla go in knowing they had a poison pill to prevent it from happening? Essentially, take their software and go home denying Tesla network to the fleet? How else? De-program all the robots, cancel supply contracts, who knows how tightly California holds the reins on China? The tariff war didn't seem to touch Tesla amidst plenty of retaliation against the USA raw stupidity.
Wondering, as this is the only FUD I subscribe to.

 

[Christine69420]

So the day that Tesla gets it’s first regulatory approval for its robotaxi service, it will stop selling cars to the public, right? Why bother putting a precious battery into a vehicle that sells for less than $100k when Tesla can use it in a service worth more than double that?

Or, the selling price of the Model S goes to something like $200,000, and it only makes economic sense for an individual to buy it if you include it in the robotaxi service when you’re not driving it.

Enjoy buying and exclusively using your Tesla car while you can. Those days are numbered.

On the other hand, used non-Tesla cars will be super cheap, which you might have in your garage as a collectible or to go on sentimental road trips, much like you might now have a record turntable and LPs.

Not so sure about that. Tesla want us to get rid of fossil cars. And not everybody want to do the taxi thing. I am one. I have my Tesla EV already. But if my choices were limited to a robotaxi or my own fossil car I'd drive myself in my fossil. But fortunately I have my Tesla so I will drive that one.

IMHO limiting Tesla usage to robotaxis will slow down the world's transition to sustainable energy.

 

[Paul_SF]

What’s the deal with this concerns about the “evil” Chinese and what might do in the future? Hmmmm....

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

It was a nice concept but videos have made it clear for some time the internal roadway wasn't happening. The west structure will connect eastward within a week or two.

Yeah, the internal floor is all at the same level. When you load/unload a truck you want a difference in level between the road the truck is on and the dock. Like 4-5 feet. That's clearly not happening inside the factory.

 

[jerry33]

Too bad, if true. I always thought internal loading docks would be a great way to load the cars/trucks onto the semis without exposing them to the elements. In fact, if Tesla could come up with an enclosed carrier trailer, the cars would never be exposed to the elements until they arrive at the destination. That might reduce a lot of the pre-delivery cleanup/repairs.

It would probably reduce cleaning and some kinds of damage, it would also create other kinds of damage (which might or might not be harder/more expensive to fix). Transporting vehicles tends to be risky for a variety of reasons.

 

[jerry33]

Well Austin metro area is 2.5 million or so, Berlin metro area is a about 6.1 and much of the Shanghai sprawl means that someone on one side of the city might as well be from another metro region. The real question is how many people live within an hour commute of the factory. I can't answer that for any of them but I would guess that the Austin facility it is 100% . Austin is just not that big.

It's not that big in area, but traffic is just plain awful. Worse than Calgary in the 1970s. Too many people moving in for the antiquated road system to handle even remotely well.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Look at the number of car carriers:

They are shipping a lot of cars, little stockpiling now.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hmm, I believe her last PT was $900. How reliable is she? Anyone know what the 52-week high is?

No, last PT was $1200 by spring. She was bang on her first two, got pretty close with her third. The fourth and now fifth, are to be determined. She doesn’t know Dionne to my knowledge, but is confidently claiming to be psychic. Taking into account the vastness of the miracle that sees her still alive and cognizant, I am in no position to argue the point. Invest at your own risk.

 

[Krugerrand]

We know it will hit $1300. But when mom, when? You need to get back over there and get an answer son. Without that, this is meaningless.

$1200 by spring. Given how she’s stated PTs before, $1300 follows closely.

She is not supportive of options, way too complicated and too much like gambling. (She was not a fan of the casino I took her to for her 70th. Wanted to quit when she was up $5.40 at the slots - so like after 3 spins). The advice would be simply to accumulate, hold, and wait for the inevitable PT to come to you.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...ers-into-an-electric-future-sees-bumps-ahead/

Auto industry peers into an electric future and sees bumps ahead
WaPo

Too many quotables to cut-and-paste. Let's just say that non-Tesla US Automakers are hosed.

 

[PeterJA]

Not so sure about that [Tesla stops selling cars]. Tesla want us to get rid of fossil cars. And not everybody want to do the taxi thing. I am one. I have my Tesla EV already. But if my choices were limited to a robotaxi or my own fossil car I'd drive myself in my fossil. But fortunately I have my Tesla so I will drive that one.

IMHO limiting Tesla usage to robotaxis will slow down the world's transition to sustainable energy.

I too believe Tesla will not stop selling cars when robotaxis arrive, even if Tesla could earn more profits that way.

Sharing the robotaxi profits with car owners (individuals and fleet owners) will provide political protection against the inevitable backlash from all the businesses that could be bankrupted by the coming of autonomous EVs (automakers, dealers, repair shops, car rental companies, taxis, Uber and Lyft, insurance companies?).

We have seen the political power of car dealers in US States that block or limit Tesla sales. Allowing these and other businesses to transition to robotaxi owners/operators/servicers rather than completely die will reduce the backlash. That too will help speed the transition to sustainable energy.

 

[Prunesquallor]

To @Mo City , @jerry33 , @EL0NTRK, and other Texans, at 12:30 on Ron Maurer's Feb. 2 podcast he discusses report that Tesla Insurance is coming to Texas.

edit: here, too.
Tesla Insurance Due to Launch in Texas Soon, as Broader Expansion Will Be a Game Changer

 

[ADP]

Well Austin metro area is 2.5 million or so, Berlin metro area is a about 6.1 and much of the Shanghai sprawl means that someone on one side of the city might as well be from another metro region. The real question is how many people live within an hour commute of the factory. I can't answer that for any of them but I would guess that the Austin facility it is 100% . Austin is just not that big. I would think they are going to be relocating lots of people there. Eventually Tesla gets heavily burned in China. For my planning and forecast I'd discount China long term. They are letting Tesla run because it is good to push the local companies along, give it 4 years and then the interference will start and then they will get the google treatment and be cut off at the balls.

The counter argument I have for discounting China long term is the $25,000 Model 2 that is to be built in China for worldwide consumption. That car will be such an important part of China’s exports they cannot afford to give Tesla the google treatment. China’s EV companies can copy that car but they won’t have the global name recognition Tesla has to be able to export their versions of the Model 2 with a high rate of success globally.

 

[ZeApelido]

The best is your know TSLAQ is reading this thread blowing their top thinking how much we rely on Krugerrand's mom for investing advice

 

[mongo]

It was a nice concept but videos have made it clear for some time the internal roadway wasn't happening. The west structure will connect eastward within a week or two.

How does that preclude the internal road? The ground floor ceiling is much taller than a semi, and the spacing between posts is much wider.

Yeah, the internal floor is all at the same level. When you load/unload a truck you want a difference in level between the road the truck is on and the dock. Like 4-5 feet. That's clearly not happening inside the factory.

For standard goods in a trailer, sure. Bulk materials that get unloaded from the side or via gantry crane (steel rolls, aluminum) are less compatible with that setup. Expanding on efficency, the use of shipping containers would allow rapid swapping via crane. Trucks would only be there for the time it takes to switch units. Then the container gets unloaded as needed.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The counter argument I have for discounting China long term is the $25,000 Model 2 that is to be built in China for worldwide consumption. That car will be such an important part of China’s exports they cannot afford to give Tesla the google treatment. China’s EV companies can copy that car but they won’t have the global name recognition Tesla has to be able to export their versions of the Model 2 with a high rate of success globally.

I'd be surprised if a $25k vehicle was being exported to the EU or US long term. Transport costs would be too large a fraction of the sale price. Far more likely to be build domestically in a highly automated line.

 

[mekberg]

The counter argument I have for discounting China long term is the $25,000 Model 2 that is to be built in China for worldwide consumption. That car will be such an important part of China’s exports they cannot afford to give Tesla the google treatment. China’s EV companies can copy that car but they won’t have the global name recognition Tesla has to be able to export their versions of the Model 2 with a high rate of success globally.

They would also have to build it cheaply to compete on price. How do you do that without giga presses?

 

[Prunesquallor]

How does that preclude the internal road? The ground floor ceiling is much taller than a semi, and the spacing between posts is much wider.



For standard goods in a trailer, sure. Bulk materials that get unloaded from the side or via gantry crane (steel rolls, aluminum) are less compatible with that setup. Expanding on efficency, the use of shipping containers would allow rapid swapping via crane. Trucks would only be there for the time it takes to switch units. Then the container gets unloaded as needed.

That's how I initially thought things might work. Overhead bridge cranes would lift the containers off the semi and transport them to whatever part of the factory they were needed. Unloaded there and returned.

Than would reduce the floor space needed for transfer aisles. Elon has commented on the floor space inefficiencies of factories.

 

[Lessmog]

I'd be surprised if a $25k vehicle was being exported to the EU or US long term. Transport costs would be too large a fraction of the sale price. Far more likely to be build domestically in a highly automated line.

That Silk Road rail we hear whispers about might lower transport costs to EU when/if finished, no? Could improve calculus.