Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

OK, well get in your car and go make a right hand turn. I find it extremely awkward to hold the bottom of the wheel and slide your hand across your lap. I find I always grab the wheel at the top and pull it down. Not having anything up there to grab in order to turn is going to drive me crazy. I will try to keep an open mind about this, but right now I see it as a huge f-up.

Just let go of the wheel, (or use flight steering, lol). It's not needed unless you're racing of course. In which case, it's perfect.

Back to my FSD-will-Rule pitch. Elon: "1000% better than humans with video labeling." Then there's speed of learning increases bc of auto labelling. Meanwhile 200-300% better than humans with frame-based labeling today (was what I heard).

This matches what I'm seeing on YouTube. And not a bunch of right hand turns like some system out there. Instead, serious challenges are being posted for the drivers to try - the worst roads and intersections are on YouTube. 100% snow, yes it's a problem still. Same with humans (especially those from Alberta).

 

[AudubonB]

A quick, OT but still modestly relevant observation to those of you who do more than garage all of your Teslas:

For quite some time now - ever since steering wheel airbags became prevalent, in fact - the 10 o'clock / 2 o'clock hand position is NOT safe and is dissuaded. Bottom half of the now-virtual circle is where hands ought to be.

And, as Tesla first and foremost builds SAFE vehicles, it likewise ought to be the case that, regardless of what you prefer, that top half of the wheel should disappear.

Now....as some of you have figured out, I've been driving a lot more years and many more hundreds of thousands of miles than most of you. So if this dog can learn a new trick, you might be able to, too.

On edit: I freely admit I miss placing my hands on the top half. First, it is easier to use gravity-assist to drop the wheel down than to have to pull it up. Second, there is some kind of atavistic enjoyment derived from performing that hand-over-hand-over-hand full lock turn. But. BUT. BUT. All that enjoyment comes to naught when an exploding air bag shatters both your wrists and ulnae, and likely the radii, and those flailing arms break your nose and cheekbones.

Don't use 10 - 2 any more, please.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

Seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

I realize I'm making a few sketchy assumptions, so don't get too worked up over any of this. Hopefully we'll know more after the impending "Refresh Conference Call" Elon mentioned tonight. Can't wait to hear more about the powertrain as well as details regarding brakes, tires, steering wheel, and the extensive interior refresh.

At the risk of re-litigating 4680 for Model S, right after Elon said the new S still uses 18650s no less... That is my read too. I don't see how Plaid+ can be 30% higher range (not to mention the insane performace) with the same battery pack as LR and vanilla Plaid. Back in the day they said the 100 kWh pack barely fit the underbody. sure it is a redesign, chemistries have improved, we also have the heatpumps now, but this just seems like too much of a gap.

 

[LN1_Casey]

So the "Plaid" they released today is really just 18650 battery with a tri-motor drivetrain, while the "Plaid+" is the vehicle they initially described as "Plaid" on Battery Day. (i am making an assumption here that Plaid+ will use 4680, but that's not confirmed)

Seems like a little bit of a bait-and-switch.

The timeline for "Plaid+" is in line with what was announced for "Plaid" on Battery Day --- end of 2021.

I realize I'm making a few sketchy assumptions, so don't get too worked up over any of this. Hopefully we'll know more after the impending "Refresh Conference Call" Elon mentioned tonight. Can't wait to hear more about the powertrain as well as details regarding brakes, tires, steering wheel, and the extensive interior refresh.

It's probably also partially due to the required naming conventions that vehicles have. For instance, I have a 2021 Model S Performance, even despite the fact it was made in November and delivered in December.

So they couldn't use the 2021 identifier from the previous version, might as well use the name they already had planned. Like they did when they did the "Long Range+."

 

[cusetownusa]

OK, well get in your car and go make a right hand turn. I find it extremely awkward to hold the bottom of the wheel and slide your hand across your lap. I find I always grab the wheel at the top and pull it down. Not having anything up there to grab in order to turn is going to drive me crazy. I will try to keep an open mind about this, but right now I see it as a huge.

i agree. This plus the 10k price increase made my decision for me. In fact, just the steering wheel design made this a no go. I am shocked that this is could possible be the real thing and not just a prototype steering wheel.

hopefully I am wrong but I do use the top of the steering wheel a lot.

 

[Singuy]

It looks like the interior is still not up to the (luxury) standard of high end European cars. This is not an issue for tech-oriented buyers, but seems to be a turnoff for main stream buyers, especially the Chinese consumers.

It looks like the interior is still not up to the (luxury) standard of high end European cars. This is not an issue for tech-oriented buyers, but seems to be a turnoff for main stream buyers, especially the Chinese consumers.

Depends. The europeans defined luxury for the Chinese. Before luxury was considered to be all that Versailles palace look. My parents did that look in China when they build their house, and that luxury. Now the europeans are going with the clean sleek look and call it modern. So now people are following suit.

Remember there was a time when we considered carpets and wood wall panels in our houses as luxury.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OH DAMN! I just realized. My license plate is PLAID. Serious first world problems here. I'll have to put a + sticker or something. .

Yeah, try explaining that to the cop, "My license plate doesn't match my registration??? Well ... it's all Tesla's fault!"

 

[uujjj2]

So why announce it in 2017 for delivery in 2019? Then 2020. Then 2021. Then 2022? It’s not like they didn’t see this bottleneck coming.

Not sure if you're an engineer or not, but that's just the reality of big engineering projects. Most big engineering/tech projects run late. And, important, the more innovative a project is, the harder it is to know in advance how long it'll take.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Now earning call is over.
thumb up if you think TSLA will break over 900 per share buying more share tomorrow morning?

I think it will drop more tomorrow on the miss. But it will not last long. Monday is better based on my crystal ball says.
I did not sell a single share, only bought more today. But it did take some guts knowing it always does this dip on past EC.

 

[phantasms]

Sorry if repost haven't fully caught up yet. They finally updated the main Model S page. Lots of goodies in there.

A few notes:

"regular" Plaid does the 1/4 in 9.23@155mph. I've done a lot of drag racing. That is bananas. Frankly the trap speed is almost more impressive than the time. Basically anything that does over 140 in the 1/4 is stupid fast. This is nutty and will pull like a rocket from a roll. ..no longer just a stop light hero. ...and this isn't even the Plaid+!!!!

The 0.209Cd os extremely impressive. Claiming to be the lowest drag car on Earth. Impressive for such a big vehicle.

Active noise canceling is interesting. Does it make it so the inside is perfectly quiet in most conditions?

The other thing was the 200mph top speed. It says that speed is only when equipped with the "proper wheels and tires" which are available in the Fall. So maybe it'll get a bit of a track package and that will also be standard on the Plaid+. FWIW this car has Supersport 4S tires which are completely capable of 200mph. My car before the Model 3 could to 200mph and came with those same tires.

The more I look at this thing the more I really like it. I need to drive it to see if it's fun. The Model 3 is soooo much fun and, honestly, I really despise driving the Model S. If this car is fun to drive that would be very impressive. If it's as much fun as the 3 and the Plaid+ is less subtle maybe I'd go for that over the Roadster. Who knows. The Fall will be interesting.

Also I do think they're still sandbagging the timeline on the Plaid+. I think we'll see it this Summer.

Phenomenal car. I can safely say the Model 3 isn't better than the Model S anymore [ducks head].

Great times ahead my friends!

 

[Maitri982]

11!

I don't know what that means? Does it mean Tesla will contract Dojo out to other companies that don't have access to a neural net?

It's aws for machine learning... simple

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Interesting what Zach said about credits. That Q4 credits was pretty much not decided until Q4 so they didn't know long in advance what it would be. This suggests to me that the original minimum amount in the agreement with Fiat had already been reached and it was up to Fiat how much more they needed. So could have been zero, or at least much lower. In the end it turned out to be almost the exact average of Q1-Q3.

If credits for Q4 had turned out to be zero and the profits down that amount there might not even have been a profit thanks to all those one off costs in the quarter. That would have sent the stock tumbling.

It didn't really sound as if the pool had been extended with much of a set minimum. Seems like Zach thought it would be decent, perhaps around 2021 levels for another couple of quarters but he did seem genuinely unsure, not just trying to dismiss the question.

Am I missing something or is this how it sounded to everyone else also?

 

[traxila]

So then why announce it in 2017 for release in 2019? It just looks bad. Many of us here make fun of other brands for these kind of delays.

Other brands have these issues because
they are not really trying, intent on simply stalling, or are not competent enough to execute. Tesla is trying and succeeding at a breakneck pace.

Tesla is leading the world in battery production. They make the best mass production batteries and they are in the process of dramatically improving the process over the next 18 months.

The Semi will be here soon enough.

 

[mejojo]

My biggest disappointment of the day was that there weren't more external styling differences with the S. I drive an S, love it--was one of the first in the world to have one, and think it's timeless and beautiful. But having said that I'd like to see a few more styling cue changes to keep things fresh.

100% agree. I love the interior changes, but I'm not ready to upgrade my '20 S unless there are battery advances included.

 

[EVortex]

My biggest disappointment of the day was that there weren't more external styling differences with the S. I drive an S, love it--was one of the first in the world to have one, and think it's timeless and beautiful. But having said that I'd like to see a few more styling cue changes to keep things fresh.

How about those new arachnids?

 

[SOULPEDL]

hopefully I am wrong but I do use the top of the steering wheel a lot.

I recently heard that's not safe...

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Too bad I don't use Discord so I could start boycotting them.

So think Elon since he just tweeted that even Discord went corporate ...

 

[Todd Burch]

It looks like the interior is still not up to the (luxury) standard of high end European cars. This is not an issue for tech-oriented buyers, but seems to be a turnoff for main stream buyers, especially the Chinese consumers.

Not enough buttons?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Not sure where you are, but within the US you should be able to get a mortgage based on assets from a mortgage broker. Rates over the past week have been in the 4-5% range.



If stock brokers are giving the loan, they're basically using margin. The rate can be low, but I'd rather not reduce brokerage margin and would rather get a mortgage via an asset depletion loan instead.

Not arguing with you. Most asset-based LOC loans forbid margin buying anyway (at least mine does).

 

[Todd Burch]

From the S details page: "New module and pack thermal architecture allows faster charging and gives you more power and endurance in all conditions."