Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kanweg]

Rob is going to live stream at a quarter past

 

[HG Wells]

Looks like Headline frenzy of a miss is for the algo's. The fine print is that delivery miss is < 1 %.
EM mentioned 500K for 2020 like 4-5 years ago.

BTFD!! (Buy The **In DIP)

So 5 years ago he knew what the number would be.

I think I know who borrowed my time machine.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I can see it now.

“Tesla fails to meet 2020 delivery goals” -Elekwhatever
"Tesla (TSLA) delivers record of 180,000 cars in Q4, barely missing goal of 500,000 cars in 2020"

FTFY. Not far off wot ol' FUDerick wrote though...

Also, notice how hee rounds down 180,550 deliveries to 180,000? Hee's not even saving bytes, when hee used the same number of digits. Hee's a huge joke (and deep too).

Heehaw!

Cheers!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elecfek just had to get 'missing' into their headline.

Meanwhile Teslarati says they hit 500,000 goal. Teslarati essentially reports on the same things only without the negative spin.

 

[Krugerrand]

@jbcarioca
we owned one of them back in the day. It also had a light rear end, going around corners if you hit a tiny bump it would "hop" sideways.
It would also run on 3 cylinders though, spark plug died on one and we limped on Interstate 81 and 64 at 35 mph
you could gap the points with a matchbook cover. model A engine if i recall, since it's been ~45 years

Let’s just get this out of the way now because we know it’s coming;

I remember we owned one of those Teslas back in the day, the early 10’s. The thing only went 0-60 in 4 seconds. It didn’t have FSD, heck still had a steering wheel. If you didn’t have the titanium shield and hit a block of concrete on the interstate the thing would shutdown and then set itself on fire 30 minutes later and burn for 4 weeks!

 

[Highway2Heel]

Q4 2019 deliveries were announced on Friday, January 3rd at 112,000 and later upped to a final tally of 112,095. Applying that same percentage to Q4 2020 would up the total by 153 deliveries giving year end deliveries of 499,703. A remarkable achievement with the better part of Q2 2020 lost to a pandemic. Nothing but good news here.

 

[Singuy]

When CNBC is more positive about this than Electrek..lol.

Tesla reports nearly 500,000 vehicle deliveries for 2020, hitting target

 

[Mike Smith]

Lora Kolodny is reporting that Tesla produced 170,757, not 179,757. An honest mistake I'm sure..

Tesla reports nearly 500,000 vehicle deliveries for 2020, hitting target

 

[jamaatta]

Wasn't it five years ago that Elon predicted 500,000 deliveries in five years? Hats off to you, Elon, hats off.

"But despite naysayers, Musk in 2014 predicted that the company would be able to produce about 500,000 cars in 2020."

Tesla on Track to Produce & Deliver 500K Cars as Elon Musk Predicted in 2014

 

[goinfraftw]

Q4 2019 deliveries were announced on Friday, January 3rd at 112,000 and later upped to a final tally of 112,095. Applying that same percentage to Q4 2020 would up the total by 153 deliveries giving year end deliveries of 499,703. A remarkable achievement with the better part of Q2 2020 lost to a pandemic. Nothing but good news here.

...and that's without a free 3 months FSD promotion in the final days of the quarter.

 

[Singuy]

Lora Kolodny is reporting that Tesla produced 170,757, not 179,757. An honest mistake I'm sure..

Tesla reports nearly 500,000 vehicle deliveries for 2020, hitting target

But she knows exactly the amount of employees who had to take a bathroom break hourly.

 

[DriveMe]

Keep in mind that delivery numbers are preliminary and are likely to go up by the time financial statements are released later this month.

For example, in Q3 the delivery count went up by 293; in Q2 - by 241.

I doubt they can find 450, but who knows! In any case, the gap is likely to shrink!

 

[Singuy]

Keep in mind that delivery numbers are preliminary and are likely to go up.

For example, in Q3 the delivery count went up by 293; in Q2 - by 241.

I doubt they can find 450, but who knows! In any case, the gap is likely to shrink!

If it's percentage based which looks like it, then 370-400 is most likely.

 

[jbcarioca]

Must be all those Giga Shanghai Model Y’s.

Someone more patient than am I might have counted the Y's in the factory lot before they began to truck them out just after 2021 began, it looked to me as it was minutes after midnight when they began to ship them out. I do not know that for certain but somebody might have documented it. It was definitely more than 1,000 Y's.

 

[joh01652]

5,394% was my final number for 2020, an unbelievable and never-to-be-repeated-by-me return. And I imagine that’s probably not very impressive compared to many here.

Adding to @StealthP3D's helpful reply...

Economic calamity just happened -- a once-in-century global pandemic. In Q2 last year, US auto sales collapsed for every make and model except Tesla.
Seeing Red: U.S. Auto Sales, Q2 2020 - The Truth About Cars

TSLA did drop 60% from February to March, but was back up in 3 months. And that was before the following:

• Giga Berlin groundbreaking
• Giga Austin announcement
• Giga Shanghai Phase 2 completion
• Battery Day
  
• S&P 500 inclusion
• FSD beta release
• Made in China Model Y release
• solar roof ramp-up (underway)
• Powerwall and Megapack ramp-up (underway)
• Q4 blowout (imminent)

A lot has happened to Tesla since TSLA last tanked, and a lot more will happen soon (factory completions, new product releases). Of course a macro calamity could strike again, but TSLA is in a different league now. AAPL and GOOG dropped only 30% last February, and were back up in 2-4 months.

To tank TSLA for years, the calamity would have to destroy global demand for transportation and energy. That seems unlikely to me, unless civilization collapses. If it does, no stock or cash will be a safe investment.

Yes, this is how I feel as well. I totally deleveraged prior to Christmas because, after a 1,284% gain in 2020, I don't feel like pushing Lady Luck any longer. Short-term dips (if there are any) will be eclipsed soon enough to the upside, unless the complete and utter collapse of civilization occurs.

Still 100% in TSLA, will not put my money in anything else for the foreseeable future. Will leverage up again when my 'gut' tells me to do so and I have a better handle on how TSLA behaves day-to-day now that it's in the S&P.

Be patient and don't panic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They produced a few more than I expected and delivered a few less. IMO it really doesn’t matter.

We’ve seen TSLA drop on better than expected numbers and rise on worse than expected, so I won’t attempt to use logic to determine its direction short-term because such logic has failed me in the past.

IMO the numbers are close enough that it won’t matter for very long. It could be that the news about the Model Y orders in China far outshadows the few thousand less deliveries than some were expecting.

The rest of those cars will be delivered in a few days.

Oh, sorry. You said you were talking to the non-eternally bullish. I apologize.

Agreed. The 2020Q4 P&D numbers are about Tesla 'delivering-as-promised'.

$5.01 Trillion worth of S&P 500 Index Fund Managers will sleep well Sunday night (and likely tip a glass of bubby tonight). Meeting numbers matters. So does consistency. Tesla can now be trusted to do both.

Telsa is EXACTLY on track. THIS IS HUGE! It means that their production predictions (6-FRIGGIN' YEARS in advance), can be counted on as highly accurate for investment decisions.

2027 is in the bag for investment managers. Floodgates, meet TSLA!

Cheers!

P.S. Imma argue that meeting their numbers is even BETTER than beating their numbers (which would just show they didn't aim high enough). Again, THIS IS HUGE.

Well done, Elon and Team!

 

[Mengy]

I'm ecstatic with the production numbers. They did it, they hit their goal even with a global pandemic going on. Imagine how much over the goal it would have been had Covid not happened?

I think we'll break 750K production easily next year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

On the other hand, delivering more S/X than they produced does suggest they're drawing down inventory ahead of a refresh... fingers crossed!

From another viewpoint, now that Tesla is delivering almost exactly 2,000 cars per day, the tiny miss of 450 units (also subject to upward revision), is just 5 hrs, 23 mins of operations for Tesla.

That's purty durn good aim for a shot taken 10 weeks ago...

Cheers!

 

[H Mak]

Half a million cars in a year like that is stunning. As well as the Fremont shutdown, Shanghai also closed twice, once for the virus and once when the holiday break was extended for operational reasons. In any other year Tesla would have smashed that guidance.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I wonder if we're going to see an inverse of the stock action that we saw from most of 2020 when it comes to P/D numbers and earnings. I could see the stock selling off a bit 5-10% and then rallying after Q4 earnings and 2021 guidance. For most of 2020, the rally's took place after P/D's came out and then sold off on earnings.