Knightshade
Well-Known Member
This got me itching to do some very rough napkin math to ballpark a 2030 PT from two different angles.
Angle 1 - Revenue multiples using energy + auto TAMs
Assumptions:
- EVs are 100% of new car production in 2030
I can stop you right there.
There's not remotely enough batteries for that.
Even 50% would require the rest of the industry to magically accelerate battery development and planned production to keep pace with what Tesla has on the books by then (and note even at their accelerated pace Tesla themselves says they'll need to keep using battery supplier partners to reach 20-25% market share of new cars in 2030)
Several members appear to be under the impression that the number of TSLA shares required by S&P 500 Index funds could not be purchased in a single session, that this additional volume (about 115M shares) could not be produced by the Market.
Let's look at the Top Ten Volume Days for TSLA, with the highest volume days listed in descending order:
Their premise is that most shares traded on any day are the same shares moving back and forth by HFT/AI trading- not unique shares.
And this the "real" float on a given day of different individual shares is vastly lower than reported volume.
Note I didn't say this was a correct argument, but it's the one by which they can look at 200+ million volume and still conclude a 120 million buy was impossible.
Just as a point of reference.. the Alibaba backed startup has robotaxis being tested on the road now..
Self-driving robotaxis are taking off in China - CNN
Amazon backed Zoox has released their prototype as well..
Zoox unveils a self-driving car that could become Amazon’s first robotaxi
and of course there’s Waymo looking to carry passengers in self driving taxis in 2-3 years.
Self driving is a difficult problem to solve.. but there’s lots of competitors in this space.
Waymo has been carrying passengers in self driving taxis for a while now.
In one specific 50 sq mile area of AZ.
The problem with their solution (and the others you mention) are:
The vehicles are expensive as hell.
They are heavily reliant on extremely detailed up to date HD maps of a specific geo-fenced area.
If you're ok with those they work fine. But they're exceedingly crap at scaling up much.
Tesla solution is intended to be far more general- such that it not only can be done with vastly cheaper hardware, it will be able to work almost anywhere without constantly needing cm level HD maps that are always up to date.
Cyberpunk gets pulled from the digital store for being a buggy mess as of yesterday..
To be fair- only on the PS4. Which was trying to run a high-end-requirements-for-2020-hardware-game on a 2013 hardware console.
Game has been running great on my PC at 4k/Ultra/DLSS quality.... which I assume is the way Elon's been running it too.