Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

So with Tesla, I believe the future is not guaranteed as many here do. I see at least two ways Tesla will fail.
1. The economy collapses due to natural disaster or political errors causing huge ( much greater than the pandemic) loss of employment that harms sales of Tesla cars. If Tesla has a couple quarters of terrible sales due to a deep depression, then the long devotees will HODL until the company is bankrupt.
2. Elon Musk leaves the company because he has new interests, or dies. And, his replacement is like a Steve Balmer was at Microsoft when Bill Gates left. A failure! Tesla needs to do what Steve Jobs did, train a bright replacement who will be a better leader than he was. I don't see Elon doing this yet.
3. Is there another? Maybe Chinese Communist government taking control of GF3 operation and kicking Tesla out or just confiscating the profits. Europe too?

I used to wonder about these things.

1) You are forgetting the incompetence of the competitors. Tesla should get every differential sale.

2) Musk has been around his team long enough for them to learn the pattern. The battery talk directly addressed this with rotating solos from members the band. Also Musk has concentrated his most engaging activities in what we will call a National Diamond in Texas. They have outdoor activities there. Cameron Park in Waco is a great place to mountain bike.

3) China knows that Tesla is about the future. If they do what is stated, they freeze the future and become the past.

Not an advice. But I do not see a better, or safer investment.

 

[bkp_duke]

Time for a new poll?
I thought it's helpful to gather what the current expectation of the folks paying special attention to this catalyst is for the Share Price (SP) in the next 2 weeks. What everyone thinks SP can get to with >=80% chances.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

Tagging a few folks that are quickly crossing my mind.
@All, I request you to join.
This information will likely be helpful for many (of course myself). Among other things with not getting carried away with unrealistic views and loosing money on crazy short term bets, and/or having upset week(s).

Peak week of 14th - $825 (80% prob)
Peak week of 21st - $650 (80% prob)

Not advice.

 

[adiggs]

I contributed. I'm a big believer in crowdsourcing this sort of info - I work with somebody who has made his professional career out of this general idea. Being in the same team, I've been seeing reports from his work regularly over the years, and he frequently gets insights from crowdsourced data before the experts using their models, business rules, thumb to the wind, and wishes.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

And I hope we see lots of contributors, not just some subset called out by name.

Given my own track record at guessing short term movements in the share price, I'm better used as a contrary indicator. If it were consistent enough, then that bad of a model becomes a good model (do the opposite of what I say and do ); instead I'm just plain bad at knowing direction, magnitude, and timing in the short term.

(But I'm really good over an 8 year window!)

 

[capster]

I've been adding potatoes for 10 years now. Guess it's going to be a big mess when that giant hot potato bubble bursts.

Mmmm, potato soufflé.

Isn’t the proper utensil to eat that with a sledgehammer?

 

[Criscmt]

I contributed. I'm a big believer in crowdsourcing this sort of info - I work with somebody who has made his professional career out of this general idea. Being in the same team, I've been seeing reports from his work regularly over the years, and he frequently gets insights from crowdsourced data before the experts using their models, business rules, thumb to the wind, and wishes.


The 80% constraint is a tough one for me. I decided on $750 at the 80% level for this coming week, and $800 as the peak for the week after.

I was planning to go $800 next week at 70%, and $800 at 60% the week after.

Either way, I see the peaks as near the end of next week, and near the beginning of the week after, with a big dependency on the degree to which the forced buying is front loaded or back loaded in the Wed-Fri, and then Mon-Wed windows.


And if I'm really serious about those windows, then my $900 12/24 calls need to go

Thanks for this comment @adiggs.
You made me realize value of another column to capture remarks/context of the numbers, like what you have in this comment.

 

[Tachyon]

Time for a new poll?
I thought it's helpful to gather what the current expectation of the folks paying special attention to this catalyst is for the Share Price (SP) in the next 2 weeks. What everyone thinks SP can get to with >=80% chances.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

Tagging a few folks that are quickly crossing my mind.
@All, I request you to join.
This information will likely be helpful for many (of course myself). Among other things with not getting carried away with unrealistic views and loosing money on crazy short term bets, and/or having upset week(s).

@adiggs @Artful Dodger @BlackS @Bet TSLA @FrankSG @ @generalenthu @ggr @juanmedina @lafrisbee @Lycanthrope @Papafox @Right_Said_Fred @Singuy @StarFoxisDown! @StealthP3D @TheTalkingMule @Tim S @Tyler34 @vikings123

Week of Dec 14-peak 740
Week of Dec 21-peak 690

 

[UkNorthampton]

Another post that will make me buy more TSLA.
Gotta start going back again to the Anonymous Teslaholics.
Will lose my 10 days chip again

Needs flowchart. Small one on decision to HODL, larger for how to tap out credit country by country

 

[Brian121]

Understand a lot of folks here have large amount of options for short term SP play.

What I can contribute is don't lose sight on the mid term or long term picture of TSLA.

Gene Munster on CNBC interview recently gave an estimate of $2,500 target in 3 years.

Now the argument seems to spill over from pure option play for SP, which is akin to a gamble, even though the longs are heavily favored, especially in November when the news first broke, into whether the top due to SP incursion being the level people are willing to bail, due to various reasons.

I would have to say that to hold extra 3 years for 3 times from even $800 is pretty good. Not sure about ARKK's estimate, but most likely more rosier.

Other valuable members provided more material insight by listing all the advantages Tesla enjoy now.

So, if short term option play turned into electrical cars only being battery + shell and everybody can do it in 1.5 years. then it's off, way off.

 

[Big Time]

Troy just said he updated his patreon. If I was rich I’d be subscriber. Any leak yet?

troys great, mb I’ll do a donation soon.

 

[pz1975]

Yikes... I applaud your enthusiasm - but I hope you or anyone else doesn’t risk a large portion of their financial security on what is clearly a bubble.

The fact is that EVs are very simple.. basically a battery platform with motors. Within 1-1.5 years every car manufacturer will have EVs with similar ranges, performance and capabilities and only differentiated by marketing and aesthetics..

Tesla has first movers advantage and will have a good year due to the growth of the EV market.. but soon other manufactures will release their products and market share will be redistributed as it is now for ICE cars. Once the market realizes Tesla has nothing special.. the valuation will tumble to more justified levels. Full disclosure.. I own a Tesla and Tesla shares.. but will be following things closely to make sure I’m not holding the hot potato when the bubble bursts..

Haha you’re the first care bear I’ve seen around here in awhile - kudos for that after a 10x run-up over the past year! I love how you think you can just show up, spout superficial unsubstantiated theories, and think somehow all us hardened bulls who have followed the company and stock closely for many, many years will now just suddenly come to a realization that we are wrong and sell off our positions. Your post is is a joke. We’ve seen the likes of you many dozens of times over the years, and they have been ultimately proven wrong every single time.

Good luck with your short position. You may profit in the short-term (no one can predict the short-term), but be smart and close things out before you ultimately join the other $35 billion (!) of short losses that have happened just in 2020.

 

[capster]

...
What's the point in high risk if I don't NEED the money?
...

Others are the point.

If you’ve more funds than you or yours need, then you, yes you, can help the mission:

• Make a bequest to the Nature Conservancy (The Nature Conservancy)
• Donate to the Natural Resources Defense Council (Climate Change)
• ...

Help prevent the system failure you fear, if not for yourself then for those who come after.

 

[kcveins]

Great post Peter, thank-you.

Will begin my TSLA refunded retirement in a few short weeks, and this post and other like it give me confidence to maintain my strategy to HODL long term, and borrow for short term. A traditional 4% draw-down strategy would be a huge salary increase, although it surely did NOT look that way a year ago.

Awesome news!
Having the knowledge and support of this group over the last 8+ years has been invaluable to helping me keep the TSLA savings growing to the point that I am going to be able to reduce my work hours by about 30% starting next month

 

[Drumheller]

Others are the point.

If you’ve more funds than you or yours need, then you, yes you, can help the mission:

• Make a bequest to the Nature Conservancy (The Nature Conservancy)
• Donate to the Natural Resources Defense Council (Climate Change)
• ...

Help prevent the system failure you fear, if not for yourself then for those who come after.

Or buy teslas for peole that cannot afford them. Get them out of ICE

 

[Criscmt]

Time for a new poll?
I thought it's helpful to gather what the current expectation of the folks paying special attention to this catalyst is for the Share Price (SP) in the next 2 weeks. What everyone thinks SP can get to with >=80% chances.

TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

Tagging a few folks that are quickly crossing my mind.
@All, I request you to join.
This information will likely be helpful for many (of course myself). Among other things with not getting carried away with unrealistic views and loosing money on crazy short term bets, and/or having upset week(s).

@adiggs @Artful Dodger @BlackS @Bet TSLA @FrankSG @ @generalenthu @ggr @juanmedina @lafrisbee @Lycanthrope @Papafox @Right_Said_Fred @Singuy @StarFoxisDown! @StealthP3D @TheTalkingMule @Tim S @Tyler34 @vikings123

@Moderators
Can we have a Poll thread created for this?
I didn't realize until @adiggs suggested that a Poll thread would make it easy to track.
Of course, I can also create a regular thread and add link to the Google sheet there.

EDIT: Never mind, I created a new thread.
TSLA S&P SP Prediction - Conducted Dec-12th weekend

 

[Buckminster]

@Moderators
Can we have a Poll thread created for this?
I didn't realize until @adiggs suggested that a Poll thread would make it easy to track.
Of course, I can also create a regular thread and add link to the Google sheet there.

I thought about it.
1) <$1k - everyone except me
2) >$1k - me

Wasn't much point...

 

[Mo City]

If losing 20% of your portfolio on an S&P inclusion play is an unacceptable outcome to you, you should not have 20% of your portfolio in short-term expiration options.

This is what resonated with me the most. A 17% investment in 15Jan calls has grown to 41% of my holdings.

Fairly certain I'll sell all of the calls next week, just trying to figure out a strategy for when.

 

[euro2012]

This is what resonated with me the most. A 17% investment in 15Jan calls has grown to 41% of my holdings.

Fairly certain I'll sell all of the calls next week, just trying to figure out a strategy for when.

Me too. What I need to study up on a bit more is how the early sellling of all these calls affects the float, I believe @FrankSG covered this is his detailed blog post. I am quite sure we aren’t the only ones wondering when to get out of these positions.

 

[TravelFree]

You want to sell covered calls when the SP is volatile,

No, I don't want to sell covered calls when the stock is volatile. Unless of course you want your shares to be called away. And then have to buy back in at a higher price. I have the experience on this my way and your way. Your way guarantees you lose more often. This is not speculation, it is just simple math. The math that you collect premium when your sell is executed and if the stock doesn't go up past the strike + the premium you keep your shares and your premium. If it does you keep the premium but you lose your shares.

During the flat period, I sold covered weekly calls and kept accumulating cash and bought more shares. Then one day the stock turned up and all my shares got called away. If you want to lose often, sell weekly covered calls into a rising bull market. My way is low risk. Also, my philosophy is not driven because I'm in love with Tesla and believe it can never fail. I recognize that even the #1 investment opportunity today, my be a dog in the future. Implied Volatility is just a guessing game. I really don't want to rely on guessing. I look for catalysts in the fundamentals rather than look into a crystal ball. What I did has worked for me. Everyone has their game so if yours is working that's fine.

Buying Calls when the stock is on a run up can be a winner too. But I don't keep enough cash to make that bet. Usually when I sell to collect a profit I have some other stock I want to buy as it is in a pull back. I admit this is probably not the best strategy for big gains, but I have less stress that way. At my age I play it much safer.

 

[Mo City]

Me too. What I need to study up on a bit more is how the early sellling of all these calls affects the float, I believe @FrankSG covered this is his detailed blog post. I am quite sure we aren’t the only ones wondering when to get out of these positions.

We definitely aren't the only ones and I want to sell before the floodgates open and TSLA drops (a little or a lot).

Next up: Determining exactly when to plunge the cash from the calls back into TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

CNN discussing Tesla and Texas right now.

on Smerconish.

Will Elon Musk's move to Texas affect Tesla brand? - CNN Video | 4 hrs ago