Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I have been thinking about December 21st and what if anything to do if extraordinary things happen to the share price.

I am a strictly long term buy and hold investor, indeed I have previously stated on here that my shares are not for sale. But just suppose that for technical reasons rather than fundamental ones, the price decouples from reality for a short time. What then? Typically when a pricing mismatch occurs, it creates an opportunity to exploit the situation. Of course often with a widely anticipated event like this, it ends up being a damp squib. But it might not, and if not, I want to have a plan, rather than be caught in a blind panic.

So I have created a selling plan. This is very much a top-slicing exercise rather than dipping into what I consider my core holding. I have set price points at $50 intervals starting at $600 and have calculated exactly how many shares to sell at each price and also which will be sold out of my tax free ISA and which ones from my taxable trading account.

The perfect outcome would be to buy back once the price settles down after the frenzy. If that doesn't happen however, then no bother, as my core holding will be worth significantly more and I will have a load of cash on my balance sheet. I have considered all the possible scenarios and am comfortable with each of them.

I would add that if something really stupid happens, such as an infinity squeeze, as happened with VW a few years ago, then I might have to ditch the plan and revert to blind panic

@StealthP3D has talked at length about why *we* don’t do this - main point being, you will kick yourself if it doesn’t come back down and just keeps rising, and/or you don’t time the buy back correctly like the dozens and dozens of people in this thread who’ve missed the buy back.

If you need the money soon, knock yourself out. If you don’t, play dead.

 

[H Mak]

@StealthP3D has talked at length about why *we* don’t do this - main point being, you will kick yourself if it doesn’t come back down and just keeps rising, and/or you don’t time the buy back correctly like the dozens and dozens of people in this thread who’ve missed the buy back.

If you need the money soon, knock yourself out. If you don’t, play dead.

Different people with different circumstances, which is why a forum like this is so interesting. I'm happy with either outcome.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Some weekend OT this guys are making battery packs for lots of OEMs and I really like Mate. I would love to own some Rimac. He talks about the OEMs that he is working with at the 19 min mark:

Rimac look like they have a lot of what is needed. Not mass production,but building up many of the pillars needed. Very interesting.

 

[Krugerrand]

Different people with different circumstances, which is why a forum like this is so interesting. I'm happy with either outcome.

If you say so. Be sure. Because I’ve heard that line many times here only for the people to post their regret, frustration and self-proclaimed stupidity.

 

[st_lopes]

If you say so. Be sure. Because I’ve heard that line many times here only for the people to post their regret, frustration and self-proclaimed stupidity.

One reason why adding options as part of your investing mix can allow you to still remain long while taking advantage of the ebbs and lows of the stock (particularly through leveraging IV).

 

[wtlloyd]

Or, think of the cost savings if there’s never anymore need for all those lights and traffic signs and road markings. If all cars just knew the rules of the road.

It’s not happening tomorrow or likely in ‘our’ lifetimes.

I think of this as the 'Machine-Friendly World'. Building infrastructure for an automated/piloted transit system, not to mention freight movement and delivery will have a huge cost savings leaving out human operator needs, and in part due to a thereby streamlined rapid buildout.
It also makes me consider where FSD can go next - a question I posed on SAY that didn't get enough upvotes to be asked. How adaptable is Tesla FSD technology to other venues? Certainly trucking is included in the current scheme, but what about farming? would one overseer be able to monitor 20 field tractors/combines? How about construction, starting with earth-movers and proceeding to replace the individual human worker? Wouldn't there be a significant savings in time and energy when the work is optimized this way? And how will those methods and materials adapt to be more 'machine friendly'?
You don't generally hear much about how the future is to be shaped to suit the machines, but isn't it obvious this development will overreach human requirements?

 

[Don TLR]

some people do seem to think Mars is just Arizona, but a little colder.

Yes was camping near Mars this past weekend and where I plan to take my first trip in the Cybertruck.

 

[ZsoZso]

Where is the facepalm emoji ?

 

[UncaNed]

I'm pretty sure that a roll is just a buy to cover followed by a sell to open. So the $5k loss would be realized at that time. (It isn't "rolled" into your new CC.)

What is the advantage of a "roll" vs. sell and buy orders? The one time I asked my brokerage to talk me through entering an order to roll an option, I ended up with something on my price chart that looked like it was it's own worst enemy, bid-wise, for the transaction to actually happen. Separate "sell" and "buy" orders worked right away.

 

[abasile]

Only reason to connect cars even further, are if we have too limited space on the roads and need to pack cars bumper to bumper. That wont happen until humans are banned, and all cars run by the same FSD rules.

Don't forget that there will continue to be other road users, including cyclists, pedestrians, scooter riders, etc. And then there are the "unexpected" road crossers including deer, squirrels, bobcats, housecats, etc. Systems like Tesla FSD will continue to be very important in that they will recognize and safely pass non-connected road users and random obstacles.

There will be limited access highways and roads exclusively for autonomous vehicles, but this must not come at the expense of people having the ability to walk, run, or bike to any given destination. I am biased here, because as much as I enjoy driving Tesla vehicles, nothing beats riding my Cannondale road bike in good weather. It gives me great pleasure to see the courtesy extended to cyclists by the "beta FSD" software.

 

[Sanny]

Different people with different circumstances, which is why a forum like this is so interesting. I'm happy with either outcome.

I'm planning selling a large part of my shares - long due reorganization of our holdings that I always deferred because it seemed like it was never a good time to sell tsla.
I do not have a real plan with price points, very interested in learning about your approach.
I was thinking to link my selling to certain dates (e.g. dec 14, dec 20-21) rather than price points.

 

[UncaNed]

V2V might have advantages negotiating things like merges in a system where all vehicles have it. E.g. Boring tunnels.

agree that it won’t have any advantages on surface streets until almost all vehicles have it.

@Runarbt , and V2V for platooning... Is platooning still gonna be a thing someday? I'd like to think so.

 

[elasalle]

What is the advantage of a "roll" vs. sell and buy orders? The one time I asked my brokerage to talk me through entering an order to roll an option, I ended up with something on my price chart that looked like it was it's own worst enemy, bid-wise, for the transaction to actually happen. Separate "sell" and "buy" orders worked right away.

The advantage of rolling in a loosing position is that it can be done with 0 associated cost at the time of event. Say you have 0$ left in account, and a CC expiring this Fri at 3K loss. To close it you would need 3K, but you have 0$ in account. Not possible right? No, by selling a 3Mth out CC and closing the current at the same time, the newly sold position enables you to have the $$ to close the current 3K loss.

There is always a sell and buy dual trade in a roll.
If current loss is accounted as a loss, that is even better for current year Taxes.

As with other options, basically you are trading time for value. If you are selling CC's against stocks, you could technically keep going for ever. However if they are against LEAPS, other options then the game is up when the underlying is set to expire.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

What is the advantage of a "roll" vs. sell and buy orders? The one time I asked my brokerage to talk me through entering an order to roll an option, I ended up with something on my price chart that looked like it was it's own worst enemy, bid-wise, for the transaction to actually happen. Separate "sell" and "buy" orders worked right away.

There is no difference. Rolling your option position is another word for buying and selling (or selling and buying) at virtually the same time. Rolling can be done either through separate orders for both steps or through one combination order. Both are called rolling.

Using a combination order for rolling has the advantage that both steps are done simultaneously, which prevents you from having to chase the price in case of a sudden SP move between the two steps. It happened to me once when rolling 40 short puts and it cost me $15,000. That was the last time I used separate orders. With a combination order you know exactly how much option premium you will receive or pay for rolling the position. And you can get pretty good prices for both legs of the combination order.

 

[UncaNed]

I have been thinking about December 21st and what if anything to do if extraordinary things happen to the share price.

I am a strictly long term buy and hold investor, indeed I have previously stated on here that my shares are not for sale. But just suppose that for technical reasons rather than fundamental ones, the price decouples from reality for a short time. What then? Typically when a pricing mismatch occurs, it creates an opportunity to exploit the situation. Of course often with a widely anticipated event like this, it ends up being a damp squib.

Just sell a few shares and treat yourself to a nice new dry squib.

 

[Singuy]

@StealthP3D has talked at length about why *we* don’t do this - main point being, you will kick yourself if it doesn’t come back down and just keeps rising, and/or you don’t time the buy back correctly like the dozens and dozens of people in this thread who’ve missed the buy back.

If you need the money soon, knock yourself out. If you don’t, play dead.

Depends on the decouple. If Tesla hits over 1k due to Volkswagen like squeeze then yes do expect it to drop down. Tesla will be a 2 trillion dollar company one day, just not by the end of this year lol.

 

[Criscmt]

I think that's a poor play. IV is still too low right now to be selling calls, especially LEAPS like that which essentially tie-up $700k of capital for over two years.

Beginning of September, Dec 18th $700's were selling for $32, so that gives you some idea how poor the premiums are for the moment.

I would maintain that selling calls on a quarterly basis is the sweet spot.

Dec 18th $800's were selling for ~$33-$34.

Even if you sell Jan-2023s, you can always buyback when it goes down. I understand that the price of near dated options move down fast in your favor (also move up fast), however, the risk of assignment is very very low for Jan-2023, in case the price goes to $800, saving you taxes. This among other similar advantages with Jan-2023S at a much safer strike (1000 vs 800).

 

[lafrisbee]

proof! Even Ford sees us as more than just an automaker!

 

[LTC_RRR]

When FSD is mastered, you dont really need V2V. When every car follow the speed limits and traffic rules - they already know what other cars will do. With FSD in all cars, they will in addition react the same way to identical situation and won't really need to talk to each other. It will be efficient and smooth anyway.

We humans dont yell at each other to make traffic flow? Well, some do.. but that normally doesnt help that much.

Only reason to connect cars even further, are if we have too limited space on the roads and need to pack cars bumper to bumper. That wont happen until humans are banned, and all cars run by the same FSD rules.

The greatest challenge in IT is to get two independently developed computing systems to communicate precisely, unambiguously, and accurately their most intimate thoughts with each other

 

[Chunky Jr.]

When FSD is mastered, you dont really need V2V. When every car follow the speed limits and traffic rules

One side effect of this is that cities will need to come up with a way to replace all the lost revenue from traffic citations and parking tickets.