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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Super important question - which will AFFECT how people treat their TSLA shares between now and end of year.. I was studying Biden's proposed draft tax plan and the rules wrt treating capital gains taxes - the % will go up for folks depending on income level. My question - if he does get elected - when will those rules likely take effect - 2021 or 2022? As a reference point - Trump got elected in 2016 and his tax plan got elected in 2018.. The IRS just came out with cap gains tax tables for 2021 but just wondering if those could change? Just looking for educated opinions here or a definitive answer if anyone has one.. My research has me thinking this is undecided at this point but just want to confirm.. Thanks
btw - was super bullish on TSLA last week on Friday.. Enjoy the dip!!
btw - was super bullish on TSLA last week on Friday.. Enjoy the dip!!
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's a huge "IF" because it has to be done through legislation. Per the constitution, tax changes must originate (be drafted) in the House of Representatives and then go on to the Senate.
If Biden doesn't win, or if the Repubs keep the Senate, tax changes will not pass.
This is not something he can do via "executive action".
Drumheller
Active Member
The 2021 budget is supposed to be set at end of 2020, which will be under Trump. Taxes paid by April 2022 will be from 2021. So, I would expect any changes from Biden to start in tax year 2022 and be due by April 2023.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
But it can only be made retroactive once he makes it official. If he’s elected tomorrow, he does not immediately assume power. There will be months of speculation as to the return of the tax credit. Therefore I’m sure many people will hold off until there is confirmation. Making it retroactive is only a nice bonus for those who decided to order anyway. This is why I think there could be a slight dip in US sales for a few months. I guess that just means more cars shipped to Europe to get those “one-time” Honda/FCA credits
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Well, given that the current value of just those shares is greater than the value of my entire account at the start of 2020, there's some reason to think that anybody can get there too. Perhaps even quickly if TSLA behaves as it ought to.
Assume biden wins, repubs lose senate - when is the earliest tax laws can pass - 2022?
2022 at the earliest IMO. Why? Let's say Biden wins and the Dems take the Senate. They are looking at a country awash in coronavirus with businesses still closing and unemployment in the toilet. Even assuming they have the votes to pass legislation in early Jan, why would they endanger the recovery (if we are in one) that soon in order to raise taxes? Politically, enacting that legislation to take effect in 2022 would please the base that wants this just as much as making it retroactive. On the policy side, making it a phased impact would make the most sense as well, in order to avoid a massive sell off.
Political capital will focus on stimulus, healthcare etc. Tax increases will be a lower priority.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Considering how fast the senate confirmed the most recent Supreme Court nominee, about 10 days after inauguration if the new administration makes it that high of a priority (given your assumptions).
Amazing how fast government can move given motivation.
I doubt this particular issue will achieve anything like this level of focused attention though. Later in 2021 (summer or fall) is my guess at the very soonest (no particular background or study of the situation - this really is a guess). With an election in 2022, if the Dems think this is an issue that will get them votes, then I would count on 2021 or earlyish 2022. Heck - if there is concern this will lose them votes and it's important to them, then same timeline (get it done before the next elections change the ability to get it done).
Attempting to make it retroactive is a non-starter (MHO). Besides the lawsuits, forcing people to go back and restate taxes won't play well among any constituencies, about any constituencies.
Sudre
Active Member
I think right now the THEY with the real money are looking to buying into the second biggest EV company. Tesla in their opinion is no longer a 10x so THEY are looking to get in on the second largest one coming up now. THEY missed the boat just like they did on Apple and the like. The problem is they are still evaluating the EV move like autos and not tech so they will most likely buy into the wrong company.
I could be wrong but I think everything 'car' on Tesla's plate now except FSD is considered priced in. I don't think THEY have any clue what FSD really is/means. I left it on the back burner myself until now since Tesla has finally released a beta Alphago type version... if you get my meaning. I don't even think most here understands how AI works or how fast it can learn. It's now time to start looking at Tesla as cheap again because on the FSD front share price wise we are back in maybe.... 2016. It's not priced in much.
The energy and battery side is also being totally left out of the average funds calculation. I mean they still completely do not understand solar roof is (at minimum) an $8000 standard roof PLUS a $40,000 solar array for the price of $30,000 or less. I mean my 12kW system was $55k and it did not include the asphalt shingles. The re-roof which was done a few years before the solar was $12K. I think solar roof might actually get cheaper too. We shall see.
AND last but not least. Utility scale batteries are not priced in at all. No one actually knows how to price them. Even here everyone is trying to figure it out.
THEY will be back to buy shares once it is too late.... again. WE will have already loaded up by then... again.
I am looking at TSLA priced as if it is $40 a share now (what the chart shows now for 2016). With that mindset I just recently bought at $40.60 a share. I am not expecting $200 a share. I'll stay modest and do the same thought I had in 2016 of $120 a share. That is still a descent run over the next 5 years but I think it will be much higher. By then maybe we will have figured out how to price in utility scale batteries. Using this mindset my first shares I ever bought are like $6 a share.
Just to clarify as people found your post informative. The origination clause in the US Constitution practically doesn't matter as the Senate can (and has) take any bill that the House has passed and "amend" it to be a completely new revenue bill that the House then needs to re-approve before going to the President. So technically, yes the bill started in the House, but the revenue affecting aspects of the bill were only introduced by the Senate.
Origination Clause - Wikipedia
Mostly, but they are not always verb and noun.*affect
affect = verb
effect = noun
If you are you trying to effect change toward proper grammer for their benefit, that is good. Whereas, it could be improper grammer causes a negative change in your affect and you are internally motivated.
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/affect-vs-effect/
CyberDutchie
Active Member
The almost 5x (~360% gain) this year was an extra-ordinary event. I don’t count on a repeat of the same feat next year, or even five years. I like to stay somewhat conservative in my outlook, sticking to Ron Barron’s 5x in ten years (TSLA at $2000). That would be a fantastic return!
You think big money are so dumb that they think like retail investors who goes around chasing after the next "y and z" company like how they chased the next "y and z" bitcoin? It's pretty obvious that there are no other company like Tesla. Other new EV start ups out of China are just ICE companies with EV as their drive train. I don't see NIO or Xpeng vertically integrating, or are in the battery storage business. Their gross margin future goals are around 13%, while Tesla can hit 35% in a few quarters. So they are not the next anything..doesn't take a genius to figure that out.
Agreed, but because they are big companies there is lot's of CYA, so they tend to use the traditional evaluation methods.
Not sure if cars are also priced in completely. If Tesla gets to 20 million sales at a 30% automotive margin at ASP of $40,000, their gross profits will be 240 billion, which is close the Apple's annual revenue. They can literally fail at FSD and Tesla Energy and their marketcap would still be in the multi-trillions if their automotive segment keeps growing as they are.
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