Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Operating cash flow should be about 3 billion for Q4.

Indeed, but where does that level of free cash flow put Tesla when ranked against the other Auto majors? The critics and detractors love to complain about what they see as unsupported Mkt Cap based on the fundamentals, but where are the competitors at WRT those fundamentals? Covid effects included.

TIA.

 

[Singuy]

Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX will be a $100 billion company thanks to Starlink and Starship

Safe to say this aint Jonas covering SpaceX

Pretty sure it is Jonas so he can ask Elon on that conference call what tips he can give Bezos about rockets.

 

[Singuy]

Why?

But also, we’re totally due for v11 any day now.

Because how will SS work if the software is not available?

 

[jhm]

I'm not sure why Tesla or anyone would describe reg credits as "one-time." Here are the last 9 quarters.

Quarter    Auto Rev    Reg Credits    Ratio
2018-Q3    6,099    189    3.1%
2018-Q4    6,323     95    1.5%
2019-Q1    3,724    216    5.8%
2019-Q2    5,376    111    2.1%
2019-Q3    5,353    134    2.5%
2019-Q4    6,368    133    2.1%
2020-Q1    5,132    354    6.9%
2020-Q2    5,179    428    8.3%
2020-Q3    7,611    397    5.2%

Historically, the revenue from reg credit is stable and growing with the business as a whole. Moreover, there is no political case why all these credits (multiple jurisdictions) would disappear in the near term. Of course, as the auto industry converts to EVs, the reg credit revenue will decline, but as a bullish EV investor, I don't see that happening for at least another 5 years. In my view, this is good growing income.

 

[jeewee3000]

Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX will be a $100 billion company thanks to Starlink and Starship

Safe to say this aint Jonas covering SpaceX

Jonas: "So Elon, if you could launch payloads on SLS for free, would you do it?"

 

[Buckminster]

Transcript from the call:
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

 

[agastya]

I'm not sure why Tesla or anyone would describe reg credits as "one-time." Here are the last 9 quarters.

Quarter    Auto Rev    Reg Credits    Ratio
2018-Q3    6,099    189    3.1%
2018-Q4    6,323     95    1.5%
2019-Q1    3,724    216    5.8%
2019-Q2    5,376    111    2.1%
2019-Q3    5,353    134    2.5%
2019-Q4    6,368    133    2.1%
2020-Q1    5,132    354    6.9%
2020-Q2    5,179    428    8.3%
2020-Q3    7,611    397    5.2%

Historically, the revenue from reg credit is stable and growing with the business as a whole. Moreover, there is no political case why all these credits (multiple jurisdictions) would disappear in the near term. Of course, as the auto industry converts to EVs, the reg credit revenue will decline, but as a bullish EV investor, I don't see that happening for at least another 5 years. In my view, this is good growing income.

As someone said on TV this morning - " Tesla is eating their competition's lunch and making them pay for it. Why is it a bad thing."
Mic Drop.

 

[Tslynk67]

Still really no media on the FSD stuff yet. Maybe the market really is just ignorant to it right now?

Could they be that stupid?

(Yes).

I scrolled through Yahoo Finance news page and saw the beta release mentioned a couple of times, but nothing related to what the testers are reporting.

What did surprise me is that almost over headline was positive, some overwhelmingly so - I normally avoid Yahoo Finance news because it's a cess-pit of smears, but not today.

Likewise on CNBS - their own stories are positive, only the "Latest from our partners" where you get the Shaking Alpaca crap dished up. Mind you, even one of those is positive ("Tesla expected to raise more capital to fund hyperbolic growth")

So either they're blissfully ignorant or deliberately not reporting it.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Pretty sure it is Jonas so he can ask Elon on that conference call what tips he can give Bezos about rockets.

Was that stupid or what? I think Elon was shocked by how stupid of a question that was.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I actually think the opposite. Smart money is going to be pilling in...albeit in a way to try and accumulate without shooting the share price if possible. But that may not work anyways because S&P inclusion will happen sometimes over the next quarter or two which will effectively take Tesla share price into another price level from where it is today.

Smart money is always ahead of the general investment community and especially Wall St and it's analysts. I don't really know how anyone could be worried about tesla share price going lower at this point. It may stagnate for a while long as long as volume stays low, but there's practically no way it's going lower.

S&P inclusion at some point in the next 2 quarters
Q4 earnings and P/D blowout
2021 Guidance
FSD rollout and march of 9's throughout 2021
Multiple factories coming online

No matter how much manipulation there is, the series of catalysts over the next few months is way too much for the stock to go down from here.

I need to buy 200 more shares to reach my target number of shares. I am planning to buy them in the next 4 months to avoid going too deep into margin. I need at least 2 good buying opportunities and than it can sky rocket to $1200 no problem.

 

[bkp_duke]

TSLAQ has their hit squad hard at work:
Tesla Is Losing EV Market Share In The EU, Here's What To Expect (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

They completely ignore that Tesla cannot make enough cars to provide consistent shipments to the EU.


I wonder what their story will be when Giga Berlin is up and running and selling every last car it makes to EU clients. . . "Tesla ramp in Berlin delayed" would be my guess.

SMH

 

[wipster]

Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha

I completely don't see Tesla doing this. More FUD.

Yeah, I thought the same when I saw the title of the article. Of course what do expect from SA?

 

[Tslynk67]

From the article:
"A consortium of self-driving technology companies, Partners for Automated Vehicle Education (PAVE), which includes Ford Motor Co F.N, General Motors GM.N and Google's GOOGL.O self-driving unit Waymo, criticized Tesla's approach."

Translation: "Oh !"

Well done Tesla, you know you're winning, when they're rattled. Expect many more push-backs like this over the coming months as the penny drops with the competition that they just lost the race.

So consortium of companies, some of which have limited self-driving capabilities under very strict circumstances, criticised the company that is currently rolling-out a working, cheaper solution.

Right. Will be the same idiots that think a rendered Hummer is better than an actual Cybertruck, even though it's more expensive an d the simulated specifications don't even come close.

It's frustrating now, but will make a lot of us very rich (if not already, of course)

 

[ninpb]

I always thought my analogy for credits was crazy but I just realized it is in the same realm of emissions/co2.

If people paid me to smell my farts, guess what? I'm establishing an LLC, create a square space, and ordering company polos.... but most importantly do the model X small business tax credit.

 

[Causalien]

Let me guess....Macros recover and Tesla stalls and falls? Seams about the norm

There is a bunch of yolo options at $500. MM want to see them expire worthless. Until then, we are not going up.

 

[Unpilot]

Just got a call from Fidelity...guy wanted to know if I needed any advise.

Got a email from ALLY finance asking if I wanted to lend my shares out.

First one I said no thank you I'm set....he mentioned perhaps some diversity would be better.

I SAID NOPE...goodbye.

Second one I ignored but should reply with hell no!

HODL...... folks this machine has just started.

 

[StealthP3D]

Monster Mondays were an August/September thing. The last four times hope was up on this board, but the rallies fizzled.

Today it’s fizzling too. The trajectory is just depressing, especially compared to how the rest of the market is moving.

I'm actually encouraged by Tesla's share price performance over the last couple of months! TSLA appreciated far and fast and has been holding amazingly steady. This kind of consolidation is necessary to build a strong base for another break-out. I'm cool even if it's delayed to next year. But it might be sooner.

Markets are fickle beasts, especially so when a company's valuation is not based directly on quarter to quarter earnings, so the exact timing of the next recognition of value is impossible to predict. Things like FSD and innovation take time to sink in. People are not accustomed to this kind of disruption. That's why I'm more than happy and very content to just hold.

TSLA is a very good deal and I don't need to look to the market for validation of what I'm seeing.

 

[Big Time]

There is a bunch of yolo options at $500. MM want to see them expire worthless. Until then, we are not going up.

Personal question: What do you use to view these?

 

[insaneoctane]

The opinions here are always interesting, insightful and varied. Obviously not many bulls here. I hear many reasons for $TSLA to go up/down in the short/long term. I can appreciate the reasons for all. Macro, election, FSD, S&P, you name it. I am not lucky enough to try my hand at options like many, but I am very confident in my HODL strategy and amazed at what is coming for this company (and anyone who bought a ticket for the ride). I keep seeing additional inputs to add more coil to the spring. Last night's beta FSD videos were reminiscent of my first use of Autopilot. Giddy. Excited and amazed. Q3s amazing numbers. The fact that Tesla is building all these factories with competitors ZEV ransoms. I'm just amazed how just how bright the outlook is! HODL FTW!

 

[CarlS]

Personal question: What do you use to view these?

Here's a good source: Stock Option Max Pain