Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

I have some play money in NIO. They are actually producing in real quantities, although nothing like Tesla. Up 24% since I got in July 10. I don't believe in Nikola (took a profit on bought puts a couple of weeks ago... too early), don't like Rawlinson, just don't really have an opinion about Rivian.

FWIW I threw some pocket change into DPHC the SPAC for Lordstown (warrants specifically as options were not available)- up about 300% since I bought (the day the SPAC deal announced)

 

[wombat9]

Troy's final P&D estimate should have come out yesterday, no? I didn't see it.

Here they are https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1311407099717525505

 

[Nocturnal]

Speculation on how the Starlink IPO might go. This impacts tesla shareholders because the idea is that TSLA holders may get priority to buy so I think it's appropriate for this thread.

Side note, our favorite gravity powered truck company is up nearly 20%.

Tesla dominating the 35K-60K price point is exactly the place to be while batteries are still expensive. Tesla can grow stronger while big auto battles for more than trivial volume at lower prices.

And bleed out trying to make a profit in a segment where even gas versions have low margins, compounded by their inability to produce EVs properly.

 

[scaesare]

Yes! The current welded wire is fiddly and don't provide a significant thermal bridge.

I was also thinking about voltage. I assume they don't want a monolithic 350v structure. But each column or two of cells could be a circuit with a fusible link on the end. That would be a modular electrical design without taking up extra physical space in the pack. So virtual modules of a sort.

Definitely not risk free in assembly, but the current packs are not risk free either.

I'm not sure what you mean by a "monolithic 350v structure"...

 

[wombat9]

Btw. this looks like an interesting read
Innovation in Batteries and Electricity Storage – Analysis - IEA
"The IEA’s projections for the future of global energy underscore the critical and growing
importance of developing better and cheaper electricity storage. In our Sustainable
Development Scenario, which maps out a path to meeting key international energy and
climate goals, close to 10 000 gigawatt-hours of batteries across the energy system and
other forms of energy storage are required worldwide by 2040 – 50 times the size of the
current market. This would enable the world to meet more of its energy needs through clean
electricity, the supply of which does not always match the location and time of demand. "

Didn't have time for a read, but Tesla is also mentioned a couple of times in the report.

Edit: It actually looks like a great read, the report clearly shows the path to the future.

 

[Pezpunk]

after watching what Tesla went through to get where it is, it takes an absolute bottomless pile of money, a world-class army of personnel in a dozen different fields, a transcendent leader, and a set of genuine miracles to go from an impressive prototype to mass production. It takes every single one of those things to have a chance.

and the only thing harder than doing it from scratch is doing all that, but with the albatross of legacy ICE equipment, R&D, staff, contracts, investments, and factories hanging around your neck.

i honestly dont see how any company can challenge Tesla.

If this is a marathon, then Tesla has a ten-mile head start on the other startups, and the ICE manufacturers are running with an engine block strapped to their backs.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

 

[scaesare]

Tl;dt; tabless cells don't mind only being cooled from the bottom.


@scaesare
Included by reference:

Agreed that a common cooling plate couldn't service all the cells, however one could be attached to each parallel group.

But as I said in my original post, and your comment underscores, some overcurrent protection mechanism would have to be implemented...

 

[zecar]

I'm not sure what you mean by a "monolithic 350v structure"...

Just that the pack can be physically one uniform mass of epoxied cells while still maintain electrical modularity

 

[dc_h]

Shanghai was still hiring for the 3rd shift and preparing for Model Y production. Do we know if they are still hiring or accelerating hiring? Adding a 4th shift for the 3 would imply they were approaching 5000 weekly production. I believe batteries have been the bottleneck to adding more production in Shanghai and possibly Fremont.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla’s Addition to S&P May Take a While, Ex-Committee Head Says

View attachment 594087

We're all over this...but its an interesting read.

From the article: "So there have been other big ones, but I guess some of us learned to shrug and say, ‘we’ll wait ‘til next month.”

So next month then?

 

[Boomer19]

Speculation on how the Starlink IPO might go.

basically saying that TSLA holders as of a specific record date will have the entitlement to purchase shares

typically events like this are structured as a subscription rights offer (because starlink isn’t under tesla umbrella)

for spacex holders it could be a spin-off or a rights offer

your tsla holdings aren’t altered yet if you hold tesla as of a specified record date, you’d be spun off rights that entitle you to ‘n’ starlink at ‘x’ price per share

the idea being that the record date is in the past, which nullifies any chance for front loading tesla shares heading into the event and then dumping the starlink shares once they are allocated.

i just don’t know if there are any regulations around allowing tesla holders this entitlement

obviously spacex holders will get this starlink opportunity. can tesla holders too?

maybe...or maybe it comes into play that the holder has to be QIB qualified inst buyer or accredited or whatever

it depends. a lot of questions around that scenario. all speculation as of now

but i do agree that it’s a fair way to do it. just unsure of any other potential ways to execute it, within the existing rules

one thing is...if this does occur, the long term holders will be rewarded.
traders in and out of position may ‘miss’ the record date

 

[Beltsbear]

Except one major difference. Iphone has always been the most expensive so there are plenty of room for competitors to come in with a lower price and accept a less margin as they are not seeking for 50% margins apple commands. This is why iPhones only account for 14% of total phone sales today as people say, the price drop increases market share exponentially. Everyone compares Tesla to Apple because of how vertically integrated they are. Except Apple is only vertically integrated at the at the chip, software, and hardware design level. So compared to Tesla they are like 20% vertically integrated. In order to match Tesla, apple needs to own Tsmc, foxcomm, and the electricity the phone gets from a charge.

This shows very little knowledge of Apple if you think Apple is only '20% vertically integrated'. Apple is 90% vertically integrated by cost. Tesla is attempting to do the same. Nobody cares where you get your aluminum from if there are 10 suppliers all competitive. But when you can be cut off from a supply and shut down your business, you have a problem. Tesla is trying to address that.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla (TSLA) 'likely to clear a rising bar' for Q3 deliveries, Credit Suisse says

In a note to investors, Levy and Denham write that they expect Tesla’s Q3 2020 deliveries to be around 140,000 cars. They believe that this is “enough to clear likely buy-side consensus ~ 135-140k. While our expectation would require a record month for Tesla in September (~65k units), we believe this is feasible given Tesla’s typical quarter-end wave.”

 

[scaesare]

Just that the pack can be physically one uniform mass of epoxied cells while still maintain electrical modularity

Cell chemistry dictates voltage. The li-ion cells Tesla uses are ~3.6v nominal. The only way to achieve the aggregate ~350v pack voltage are to have 96 cell groups in series, regardless as to if they are physically packed in to discrete modules.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

View attachment 594091

Tesla really going above and beyond:

 

[Ratanpara]

Looks like delivery number won’t be out until Monday, by looking at options premium collapsing for tomorrow expiry.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Keeping myself within the perspective of a pre-split SP at $2,200 being ridiculous... I do think today may be the ultimate medium term call buying opportunity.

• Deliveries at 135-140k seems to be a decent enough lock.
• Everyone here keeps yapping the 3Q 20 should be amazing.
• Inclusion could happen literally tomorrow, but should happen before the new year.
• It looks like stimulus north of $2T is coming. Robinhood and macro effect.
• Actual 500k deliveries announcement on Jan 2 is looking very doable.
• The election looks 80-90% to be going toward the TSLA friendlier side.
• IV hasn't been this low in a long while.

Basically Jan15 calls are pretty certain to make very good money unless we end up with a Senate/WH split. That's 50/50 right now, and calls might still even perform quite well on the momentum of all those other factors. Next GF being in Texas is also a nice hedge against any Senate troubles that may pop up against a Tesla friendly WH so maybe it's not a big deal.

I liked someone's comparison to AAPL when iPhone began to ramp and Android hadn't taken off yet. Only wrinkle is that AAPL was a $250B market cap back then not $400B. Personally, I think TSLA has a very good chance to be far beyond a $2T company in 10 years.

Anywho......not an advice.

 

[Jack6591]

Troy's final P&D estimate should have come out yesterday, no? I didn't see it.

Troy puts in the work to produce a quality analysis. Subscribing to his Patreon blog is a great idea.

 

[mikevbf]

Late reply, didn´t find this question so far - did IR ever send out such info before? Did it match actual deliveries well back then? Never heard of that in all these years on TMC... Tesla should know pretty exactly how much they will be delivering - this is significantly less than our consensus I guess. How do they come up with that number?? Color me confused...

I was wondering the same thing. TeslaFacts on twitter helped clear it up a bit:
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1311541956208623616